Ranked teams battle on Saturday with Texas Tech heading over to Houston for an important Big 12 clash; can the Red Raiders pull a stunner on the road or can the Cougars continue their perfect start to league play?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 1, 6:00 pm ET. ESPN2
Arena: Fertitta Center in Houston, Texas
While the season has been far from perfect, Texas Tech (16-4) has put some great results together nearly three months into the season. The Red Raiders don’t quite have the impressive wins as some of their other league rivals but do sit 7-2 in Big 12 play, including a recent romp of Arizona. This team enters play on a five-game winning streak and is looking to make a major impression.
First and foremost, Texas Tech has gotten great production from JT Toppin (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg), a sophomore forward who was MWC Rookie of the Year before transferring from New Mexico in the offseason. He just had another double-double in this week’s win over TCU and keeps producing for the Red Raiders. In the backcourt, a lot of eyes should be on Chance McMillian (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg), a senior guard who’s made 46% of his 3-pointers and is one of the Big 12’s most efficient shooters. Junior forward Darrion Williams (14.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.4 apg) has also put up remarkable numbers in his second season in Lubbock.
Texas Tech is #22 in the AP Top 25, but actually comes in at 12th in KenPom and 13th in the NET. Their metrics are in much better shape than it actually seems, with a very solid offense leading the charge in many of these recent Big 12 wins. These Red Raiders make their outside shots, get second chance opportunities, and have done the little things during this streak, but will that continue in their toughest game of the year?
That significant test comes in the form of Houston (17-3), as the Cougars haven’t lost a game in over two months and are off to a perfect 9-0 start to Big 12 play. Houston didn’t build much of a resume in nonconference play, but have been fantastic against their league rivals, including a sweep of West Virginia and a recent double overtime win at Kansas.
The Cougars are certainly leaning on LJ Cryer (13.7 ppg, 2.0 apg), the senior guard and former Baylor player who’s assumed a role as the top scorer for the Bears. Senior forward J’Wan Roberts (10.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg) scored 24 points at Kansas last weekend and has been the Cougars’ top rebounder in recent years. While there are other important names further down the lineup, keep an eye on Emanuel Sharp (12.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg), a junior guard from Tampa who leads the Big 12 in both 3-point and free throw percentage this season.
Winners of thirteen consecutive games, Houston is up to #6 in the AP Top 25, though they’re 1st in KenPom and 2nd in the NET, even with that lack of success before league play. This defense is off-the-charts brilliant while the offense also comes in at Top 10 in the efficiency metrics. The Cougars play a slow burn tempo, taking and making enough shots while limiting opportunities for their opponents, and it’s gotten them on this incredible run.
Nearly three months ago, Auburn came to Houston and delivered quite the upset, but can Texas Tech deliver the same sort of punch? The Tigers leaned heavily on their star frontcourt and the Red Raiders will need standout play from Toppin and Williams to have a chance in Houston. Neither team plays fast, meaning possessions will be at a premium and the team that executes their offense will have the better chance of winning.
We’re intrigued to see how the Red Raiders handle this elite Houston defense as they get the job done with everyone on this squad. Toppin needs to have another breakout effort and Texas Tech needs to limit any second chance opportunities for the Cougars. This Houston squad has been bodying people on their home court for most of the season, meaning the Red Raiders will really need to land those outside shots to have a chance.
Prediction: Houston 66, Texas Tech 58