Texas is riding the high of upsetting Texas A&M in the second round of the SEC Tournament in a game that felt like it might go on for eternity. The Longhorns outlasted the Aggies in double-overtime, winning 94-89. It wasn’t a surprise that this game was a rock fight, but Texas was able to be Texas A&M at their own game to keep the Longhorn’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Texas was on the outside looking in at the start of the day, but with an upset win over A&M, the Longhorns might have played their way in.
Tennessee has enjoyed the luxury of earning a double-bye into the quarterfinals as the 4-seed. The Volunteers enter the SEC Tournament winning four of their last five games - only losing to Ole Miss on the road. Rick Barnes has his team playing just about as good as it has been all season. The Vols continue to thrive defensively, and the offense has been good enough to knock off some of the league's top teams.
These two teams met early in conference play with Tennessee, snagging the 74-70 win on the road. In that game, Tre Johnson did all he could to pull the upset, scoring 26 points to lead all scorers. Zakai Zeigler led the Vols with 16 points. While it wasn’t Tennessee’s most dominant defensive performance, the Vols easily won on the boards, out-rebounding the Longhorns by 14.
Texas has already proved that when it comes to postseason tournaments better teams don’t always win. The Longhorns have already taken down two higher-seeded teams, but coming off a physical double-overtime game against a rival, will Texas have enough left in the tank to survive Tennessee’s suffocating defense on a short turnaround?
How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
- Date: Friday, March 14
- Time: 3:30 pm ET
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Texas record: 19-14
- Tennessee record: 25-6
Texas vs Tennessee odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Texas +400
- Tennessee -550
Spread:
- Texas +9.5 (-102)
- Tennessee -9.5 (120)
Total:
- 132.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Texas injury report
- N/A
Tennessee injury report
- N/A
Texas and Tennessee series history
- Texas all-time record vs Tennessee 4-6
Texas vs Tennessee prediction
Texas would have a hard time taking down Tennessee on a normal schedule. But playing their third game in as many days already puts the Longhorns behind from the start, and that’s not to mention that Texas took Texas A&M to double overtime less than 24 hours before the tip of this quarterfinal matchup. The Longhorns starters all played over 30 minutes against the Aggies, with Arthur Kaluma, Tre Johnson, and Tramon Mark hitting 40 minutes.
Tre Johnson had a huge game against Tennessee in January, netting 26 points on 11/17 shooting and four made threes. Johnson could have another huge game against the Vols, but the SEC Freshman of the Year won’t be able to win this game on his own. Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark will need to step up their scoring, though they haven’t been the most consistent scorers this season. Texas’ offense isn’t the most flashy and the Longhorns haven’t shot the ball particularly well this season, making just over 42 percent from the floor in SEC play. If Texas can get to the free throw line often, then its chances of pulling another upset in the SEC Tournament are better - Texas was the second-best free throw shooting team in league play at 76.7 percent.
Tennessee’s defense is feared, and rightfully so. On the season, the Vols have held all but one opponent to under 80 points. In conference play, Tennessee is holding opponents to just under 40 percent from the floor. Even the best offenses in the SEC have struggled with this defense. Chaz Lanier has scored in double figures in each of his last 14 games and is averaging 20 points per game over the last five. And even though Zakai Zeigler hasn’t done much scoring over the past couple of games, he is more than capable of putting up huge offensive numbers.
When Texas and Tennessee played in early January, the Longhorns were able to keep the game close by taking care of the ball and forcing 15 turnovers. To get the upset win, Texas will need to play a similar game. Only this time, the Longhorns need to make better than 41 percent from the floor.
It’s hard to imagine that Texas will have enough energy to withstand Tennessee’s physical defense for a full 40 minutes after the tough win against Texas A&M. All signs point to Texas needing to play a nearly perfect game against the Vols. A well-rested Tennessee should be able to take down Texas and advance to the semifinals for the first time since 2022.