The brackets are here, and the time for debate about inclusion and exclusion is over. Now is the time to dissect every aspect, factor, and statistic trying to fill out the perfect bracket. When people attempt to pick winners in the NCAA Tournament, many different roads of reasoning lead us to our conclusions. Sometimes, it’s perseverating over any analytical advantage or talent on a roster or level of competition. This time of year, that reasoning can include (rightfully for some) team mascots, colors, and locations.
When considering a tournament, while a lot of bullet points for consideration can be found on a website, one of the most important things that won’t be found behind a mathematical equation (and even that is changing) is how well a team is playing as they head into the tournament. Momentum can certainly be a fickle mistress but if a team gets on the right side of it, history has shown they can ride that wave a long way.
So, who are the hottest teams in the East region entering play on Thursday? For this exercise, I have excluded the top two seeds. Theoretically, they are seeded highly because they have played well for a long time. Also, because a team made this list, it shouldn’t be considered an endorsement of their ability to make a run over the next two weeks (although possible). This is purely a look at who has the most momentum as we begin the Big Dance.
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies 25-9
Let’s begin with the Big Sky champs, the Montana Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are the No. 14 seed and face Wisconsin in the first round on Thursday. Travis DeCuire’s team enters the tournament 25-9 with a balanced offensive attack for a team that averages 76 points per game. That attack has four players in double figures, with two more netting over nine per game. They are led by sophomore guard Money Williams who is the team’s leading scorer (13.3) and assist man at 3.1.
The Grizzlies will take the floor Thursday winners of 14 of their last 15 games. They have lost just once since Idaho State beat them on Jan. 18, and the game they did lose was 79-76 in OT at Portland State. The team that ranks in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, and top 60 in three-point shooting are comfortable in close games. During that 15-game stretch, 10 of those games were decided by single digits.
No. 13 Akron Zips 28-6
The Akron Zips needed a last-second layup from leading scorer Nate Johnson to cap a 16-point comeback and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. As a reward, they get the No. 13 seed and a date with Arizona on Friday. Like Montana, Akron has a balanced attack that has them putting up nearly 85 points per game. They have nine players who put up at least six points per game, with a pair of junior guards named Johnson leading the way. Nate averages 14, and Tavari 13. They will need all of that offense to keep up with the high-octane Wildcats.
Thanks to Johnson’s layups the Zips have the nation’s 10th-longest winning streak at seven. Sandwiched around their only loss since December 30 was a 14-game winning streak which means Akron has won 21 of their last 22 entering the Big Dance. Akron is extremely efficient on the offensive end, ranking 66th in offensive efficiency, and is in the top 50 in effective field goal percentage as well as both three and two-point field goal percentage. One thing to watch early on in their game against Arizona will be how easy or difficult it is for the Zips to get the shots they want.
No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels 28-5
The Saint Mary’s Gaels are the only team on this list that is not a conference tournament champion. The Gaels fell to rival Gonzaga in the WCC final, after securing their third straight regular season title. Unlike the other teams on this list, the Gaels hang their hat on defense with a rotation that isn’t as deep. Randy Bennett plays seven guys and all seven of them score at least five points per game. In this age of high-powered offenses, the Gaels score just 73 points per game but give up just 59.
When Saint Mary’s takes the floor as the No. 7 seed to face No. 10 Vanderbilt, they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. They are also in the top 45 in defensive metrics, including effective field goal percentage and three-point and two-point defense percentage. Saint Mary’s has lost just twice since before Christmas. They lost at San Francisco by one on Feb. 6 and that WCC final 58-51 to Gonzaga. What makes the Gaels one of the hottest teams in the East region is their dominance in their 18 wins since Dec. 22. Of those 18 wins, 12 of them came by double digits, and in the 20 games since Dec. 22 they only allowed more than 70 points once and 60 or less in 14 of those games. If Vanderbilt is to pull off the first-round upset, they will have to avoid the defensive clamps that Saint Mary’s has been putting teams in for the last three months.