No matter how you slice it this has been a historic season in the SEC. Depending on which bracketologist you listen to and which metrics the Selection Committee adheres to most, the conference could get as many as 13 teams into the Big Dance. Remember, the current record for a single conference in one bracket is the 11 teams that the 2011 Big East sent into the field, including national champion UConn that season.
It’s not just quantity but the quality of basketball in the SEC has been off the charts. In recent weeks, you could argue that four different SEC teams have staked claims for a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament, with Auburn certainly deserving of that regardless of what happens this week. At the same time, the teams in the middle of the pack have resumes to make the field as well, but there are still definite questions lower down the bracket.
It’s hard to really quantify what a bid thief would mean from the SEC, with many projections putting at least 75% of the conference into the Big Dance. Few expect much from bottom feeders LSU and South Carolina and the chances either win five upsets in five days is astronomically low. Instead, we’re looking at three bubble teams that can do themselves a lot of good by showing up in a major way at the SEC Tournament.
Arkansas
John Calipari’s squad started the season on a high note and picked up a December win over Michigan that escalated in value during league play. However, the Razorbacks then lost their first five games to start SEC play. The Razorbacks do have some nice performances in the league, and recently beat Vanderbilt and Mississippi State in the final week of the season to get back onto the radar and into solid position.
It’s important that Arkansas takes care of business in their opening round game against South Carolina. Right now they’re on the right side of a pretty weak bubble, but stumbling for a second time in two weeks against a very weak Gamecocks squad might not be survivable. This shouldn’t be asking too much from the Razorbacks, who likely even make the Big Dance without beating Ole Miss in the second round.
Oklahoma
After a 13-0 start, including great wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, the Sooners are another program that has really stumbled in a strong SEC. One week ago, Porter Moser’s squad was just 4-12 in league play with some close calls and some truly regrettable efforts down the stretch. However, knocking off Missouri and Texas last week certainly bought them some favor and has them back in the bubble talks.
If the Sooners want to secure their place in the field of 68 then they did a good performance against Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament. Those recent wins are nice, but taking care of another bubble team really shows that the Sooners belong in the Big Dance. They might already be good if they knock off the Bulldogs, but a great effort in the second round against Kentucky would cement their status on the right side of the bubble.
Texas
The one bubble team likely on the outside looking in, Texas had a pretty weak nonconference schedule and have wasted chances in SEC play. The Longhorns do have some quality wins, beating Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M before their recent road win at Mississippi State, but that 6-12 mark in the SEC proves that they’ve had a lot of sour nights as well.
If the SEC is going to get 14 teams into the NCAA Tournament then Texas needs to make a significant impression in this tournament. They are the true bid thief, certainly needing a win over a talented Vanderbilt squad in first round action on Wednesday. A lot will depend on how other bubble teams fare in the days ahead, but the Longhorns might need to upset Texas A&M in the second round to really punctuate their status with the Selection Committee.