The final week of the regular season is upon us, and thanks to the NCAA Tournament bubble being closer than ever, there are many games Tuesday and Wednesday that will have significant tournament implications for bubble teams ahead of the final weekend of regular season play.
As things stand, there is no room for error for any team currently on the bubble, and given the potential for bid stealers, a 2-0 mark in the final week of regular season play is imperative to any bubble team's tournament hopes. Anything less would be a bad blow for a bubble team and would likely require a deep run in their respective conference tournament to truly improve their odds of making the big dance.
Nonetheless, here are some games this week with significant NCAA Tournament implications.
Tuesday, March 4
Georgia vs South Carolina - 6pm on SEC Network
Georgia currently sits dangerously close to the NCAA Tournament cut line while South Carolina, who sits in last place in the SEC, is eliminated from at-large contention and has nothing to lose at this point. This is a quad 2 win opportunity for Georgia, and a win would certainly help them remain on the right side of the bubble, but it may not move the needle too much in the grand scheme of things. A loss on the other hand could very well knock them out of the projected field for the time being.
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech - 7pm on ESPNU
North Carolina currently finds themselves on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament but still within striking distance. A victory in this quad 3 opportunity at Virginia Tech would do nothing more than keep the Tar Heels on the bubble for the time being. A loss, which would be their second quad 3 loss of the year, would potentially eliminate them from at-large contention, regardless of what happens in Saturday's matchup versus Duke.
Baylor at TCU - 8pm on ESPN+
Over the last few weeks, Baylor has slipped closer and closer towards the NCAA Tournament bubble, and while they currently sit on the upper bubble, they are far from out of the woods. This will be a low-end quad 1 opportunity for the Bears, and while a win wouldn't lock Baylor into the field of 68, it would give them some additional breathing room ahead of the chaotic middle and lower bubble teams entering the weekend. A loss on the other hand would push Baylor even closer to the tournament cut line, perhaps into first four territory ahead of their regular season finale versus no. 3 Houston, and would likely require the Bears to win a few games in the Big 12 Tournament. TCU's at-large hopes are currently on life support and a loss in this one would likely extinguish any hopes for an at-large bid.
Villanova at Georgetown - 8pm on Peacock
Villanova's chances for an at-large bid are currently slim, and they absolutely have to have this one in order to keep those hopes alive. A loss would likely eliminate them from at-large contention. Even with a win, Villanova will likely need to reach the semifinals or championship game in the Big East Tournament to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.
Texas vs Mississippi State - 8pm on SEC Network
Sitting at 16-13 overall (5-11 SEC), the Longhorns enter this game on a 3-game losing streak that has moved them to wrong side of the Tournament bubble. This quad 1 opportunity is a must-win for Texas and a loss could very well eliminate them from at-large contention. Mississippi State is a virtual NCAA Tournament lock at this point, but they are still playing for seeding in both the SEC and NCAA Tournaments at the moment.
Indiana vs Oregon- 9pm on FS1
Indiana's 3-game winning streak has put the Hoosiers on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble for now, but still have little room for error in their final two games of the regular season. Should the Hoosiers earn a quad 1 victory in Eugene, they would likely be on the cusp of locking themselves in to the NCAA Tournament field. On the other hand, a loss probably wouldn't knock them out of the projected field, but would push them closer to the cut line and would likely require the Hoosiers to win a few games in the Big Ten Tournament to truly feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
West Virginia vs Utah - 9pm on ESPN+
The Mountaineers are in good shape for an at-large bid at the moment but still need this win over Utah to feel comfortable entering the weekend. Should West Virginia win this one, they would become a near-lock for the tournament, and would likely allow them to firmly lock themselves into the field with a 2-0 finish to regular season play.
Ohio State vs Nebraska - 9pm on Peacock
The Tuesday night tilt between Ohio State and Nebraska perhaps has the biggest bubble ramifications of any game this week. Both teams find themselves in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble and are effectively living right on the cut line for the time being. This is a quad 1 opportunity for Ohio State and a high-end quad 2 opportunity for Nebraska. The winner of this one would move to right side of the tournament cut line while the loser would move to the wrong side of the tournament cut line but would not be eliminated from at-large contention.
Boise State at Air Force - 9pm
The Broncos have done an admirable job climbing their way back into the tournament bubble, having won 8 of their last 9 games. That being said, stakes are high for their their quad 4 matchup at Air Force. A win won't exactly help them move up any further, however, a loss would erase much of the ground they have made up over the past few weeks and could eliminate them from at-large contention altogether. Friday night's regular season finale with Mountain West foe Colorado State will likely decide what the Broncos will need to do in the Mountain West Tournament in order to reach the Big Dance.
Arkansas vs Vanderbilt - 10pm on SEC Network
Arkansas is another team that finds themselves right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble with no room for error. The Razorbacks are fresh off a blowout loss at South Carolina and absolutely need a bounce back win in this quad 1 road opportunity at Vanderbilt. At this point, Commodores are a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament, but this game remains a crucial one, largely for seeding purposes moving forward. A loss for the Razorbacks in this one would likely knock them out of the projected tournament field for now.
Wednesday, March 5
Xavier at Butler - 7pm on CBSSN
Xavier presently finds themselves right on the NCAA Tournament cut line, and they are another bubble team that has no margin for errors in their final two regular season games. This is a high-end quad 2 matchup for Xavier comes against their rival Butler, who has nothing to lose in this matchup. Depending on how Butler finishes the regular season, this could very well end up being a quad 1 result come Selection Sunday. Either way, Xavier cannot afford to lose this one, and a loss in this one would move them further down the bubble and would likely require a few Big East tournament wins to have a realistic chance for an at-large bid. A win on the other hand would likely move them up in the bubble a little bit, pending other results this week.
Kansas State at Cincinnati - 7pm on ESPN+
Cincinnati is currently on the wrong side of the tournament bubble but still remains in at-large contention. The Bearcats have their work cut out for them over the next week and a half should they want to reach the big dance, and it starts with a must-win quad 3 game versus Kansas State. A win at the minimum keeps them alive for an at-large bid while a loss would potentially eliminate them from at-large contention altogether.
Missouri vs Oklahoma - 8pm on SECN+
Oklahoma had a 13-0 showing in non-conference play season and looked to be on their way to their first NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach Porter Moser. However, the Sooners' performance in SEC play has been nothing short of disastrous, as they currently sit at 4-12 in SEC play and find themselves right on the tournament cut line. It feels eerily similar to last year's Oklahoma team, which went 12-1 in non-conference play before stumbling down the stretch in conference play and ultimately was the first team left out of the NCAA Tournament.
That being said, Oklahoma has the opportunity to flip that script as they host no. 15 Missouri, and a win in this quad 1 opportunity. It is still hard to envision a team finishing 6-12, let alone 5-13 in conference play, earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, though 6-12 may be enough in this historically good SEC. A loss in this one may not eliminate the Sooners from at-large contention, but it certainly would require them to win a few games in the SEC tournament to have a realistic chance.
While this year's tournament bubble may be weaker than most, anything can happen in March, and with so many bubble teams fighting for just a few bubble spots, every bubble team's game will have some sort of ramification on the bubble that could prove to be the difference maker. And that's not even factoring in potential bid who would shrink the number of spots even further. Regardless, it will be a tense few weeks for fans of teams on the bubble.