March Madness is finally here, with the 10th-seeded Utah State Aggies set to take on the seventh-seeded UCLA Bruins in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night in Rupp Arena.
The Bruins enter Thursdays’ tilt on a bit of a slide, going just 4-4 over their past eight games. UCLA lost to Wisconsin 86-70 in their first and only game at the Big Ten Tournament, allowing the Badgers to shoot a blistering 59.2% from behind the arc.
Meanwhile, the winning ways continue in Logan, Utah, despite its seemingly ever-changing cycle of head coaches. Led by up-and-coming head coach Jerrod Calhoun, the Aggies also enter Thursday’s game on a 4-4 slide, falling to red-hot Colorado State 83-72 in the MWC Tournament Semifinals.
How to watch Utah State vs UCLA
Date: Thursday, March 20
Time: 9:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Rupp Arena
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Streaming: March Madness Live
Utah State record: 26-7 (15-5)
UCLA record: 22-10 (13-7)
Utah State vs. UCLA odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
Utah State +172
UCLA -210
Spread
Utah State +5.5 (-120)
UCLA -5.5 (-102)
Total
142.5 (over -115/under -105)
Utah State injury report
N/A
UCLA injury report
Christian Horry, G: Questionable
Eric Freeny, G: Out (redshirt)
Devin Willams, F: Out (redshirt)
Evan Manjikian, F: Questionable (arm)
Brandon Williams, G: Out (redshirt)
UCLA and Utah State series history
UCLA all-time record vs. Utah State: 5-0
Utah State vs UCLA prediction
This may be among the most intriguing 7-10 matchups in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bruins are among the more balanced teams in NCAA Basketball. Mick Cronin isn’t afraid to utilize his depth, going 10 or 11 men deep into his rotation. UCLA is spectacular on the defensive end, hanging their hat on creating turnovers (22.8 TO%) while ranking inside the top 20 in KenPom defensive efficiency.
But if the Bruins have an Achilles Heel defensively, their stubborn defensive pressure creates opportunities for their opponent to find open looks from three. Thankfully for UCLA, Utah State has also faced a similar problem throughout the 2024-25 season, allowing their opponents to shoot at a near-similar three-point rate.
Despite the Bruins' hard-nosed defense, the key in this matchup lies on the offensive end of the floor. While Utah State enters the game as a mediocre-at-best defensive team, it’s their high-powered offense -- led by a terrific backcourt in Ian Martinez and Mason Falsey -- that can cause problems for the Bruins if they get hot from deep. Martinez and Fasley combine for nearly 10 three-point attempts per game.
While the Bruins offense has lacked offensive consistency throughout the year and hasn’t found its sure-fire duo of go-to scorers, it’s Tyler Bilodeau, who leads the Bruins in scoring with 13.6 PPG, who can be the ultimate difference-maker in this game. He’s fully capable of an in-game takeover. And I expect that to be the case on Thursday evening.
While Utah State unquestionably has the offensive firepower to hang close with the Bruins, I trust the veteran-laden Bruins to get key stops down the stretch, slow the game down, and limit Fasley and Martinez’s impact from deep.
Prediction: UCLA 73 Utah State 69