The NCAA Tournament is getting bigger.
For the first time, the men's tournament will feature 76 teams, creating more opportunities for bubble teams and adding even more drama to Selection Sunday. But while the expansion has generated plenty of headlines, the top of the bracket remains reserved for college basketball's elite.
According to On3's latest way-too-early bracketology, four programs have emerged as the early favorites for No. 1 seeds in the 2027 NCAA Tournament:
- Florida
- Michigan
- UConn
- Duke
Those four teams are expected to open next season with national championship expectations, but they're far from alone in the race for college basketball's biggest prize.
Florida leads the way as defending champions
Todd Golden's Gators enter the season with a chance to do something very few programs ever accomplish: repeat as national champions.
Florida returns major pieces from last season's title team, including Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon. That combination gives the Gators one of the nation's most experienced and talented frontcourts, and additional international talent could make them even more dangerous.
It's easy to see why Florida landed atop the overall seed list.
Michigan, UConn and Duke remain title favorites
The other three projected No. 1 seeds shouldn't surprise anyone.
Michigan is coming off a national championship under Dusty May and continues to recruit and develop talent at an elite level. The Wolverines have retained key contributors while aggressively adding talent through recruiting and the transfer portal.
UConn remains one of the sport's gold standards under Dan Hurley. The Huskies have reached three national championship games in four seasons and return star guard Braylon Mullins while adding transfer Najai Hines. Even with Solo Ball recovering from offseason surgery, UConn looks loaded once again.
Duke continues to reload under Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils have assembled another elite recruiting class while bringing back multiple key contributors and adding impact transfers. As long as Scheyer continues recruiting at this level, Duke will remain a fixture near the top of every preseason ranking.
The No. 2 seeds might be just as dangerous
The projected No. 2 line is filled with teams capable of earning a No. 1 seed by March.
- Illinois
- Michigan State
- Virginia
- Houston
Illinois may have the strongest argument of the group. Brad Underwood returns much of his core while adding transfer Stefan Vaaks and another talented freshman class. The Illini have the talent to make a serious Final Four push.
Michigan State remains a perennial contender under Tom Izzo. While there are some questions in the frontcourt, the Spartans once again have enough talent and experience to compete for a Big Ten title.
Virginia continues to build momentum under Ryan Odom. Returning much of last season's core while adding transfer help has the Cavaliers positioned for another step forward.
Houston, meanwhile, simply keeps doing what Houston does. Kelvin Sampson has built one of the most consistent programs in America, and the Cougars once again look capable of making a deep March run.
Several other contenders are lurking
The projected No. 3 and No. 4 seed lines are loaded with programs that could climb much higher.
Among the most notable teams:
- Arizona
- Gonzaga
- Arkansas
- Purdue
- Louisville
- Tennessee
- Vanderbilt
- Texas
Arkansas remains one of the most intriguing teams in the country after another strong offseason. Purdue continues to be a factor in the Big Ten race, while Gonzaga's move into the rebuilt Pac-12 adds another fascinating wrinkle to next season.
Louisville and Vanderbilt are two programs that have rapidly climbed the national conversation, while Arizona, Tennessee and Texas all have the talent to exceed their current projections.
History tells us at least one team from this group will likely end up on the No. 1 line by Selection Sunday.
Every great March Madness needs a Cinderella
The expanded 76-team format could create even more opportunities for surprise programs to capture the nation's attention.
A few projected tournament teams already stand out as potential Cinderella candidates:
- Queens
- High Point
- Belmont
- UC Santa Barbara
- Liberty
- Wichita State
- St. Thomas
- McNeese
Queens may be the most fascinating team on the list. The Royals continue their rise as one of college basketball's best emerging programs and are already projected into the expanded First Four. Under the previous format, teams like Queens had almost no room for error. Expansion gives them a much clearer path to March Madness.
High Point has quietly become one of the nation's most dangerous mid-major programs. Belmont remains one of the most respected names outside the power conferences, while Liberty has consistently proven capable of challenging high-major opponents.
UC Santa Barbara is another team capable of becoming a fan favorite. The Gauchos have built a reputation for winning games and making life difficult for bigger programs.
Then there is Wichita State. The Shockers have one of the strongest modern Cinderella traditions in college basketball, and seeing them back in the projected field immediately sparks memories of previous March runs.
St. Thomas also deserves attention. The Tommies' rapid rise through Division I has been remarkable, and earning a projected tournament berth this quickly shows just how much momentum the program has built.
Expansion creates more opportunities, but the favorites remain familiar
The move from 68 to 76 teams will undoubtedly create more opportunities for programs across the country. More fan bases will enter March believing they have a chance.
But when it comes to winning a national championship, the usual suspects still sit at the top.
Florida wants to repeat. Michigan wants to defend its throne. UConn is chasing another banner. Duke is looking to return to the sport's summit.
Meanwhile, Illinois, Michigan State, Virginia and Houston are waiting right behind them.
It's only June, but the race to San Antonio is already taking shape.
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