One of the dozens of MTES going on in college basketball this month is the “Villanova Challenge”, featuring four programs. That includes host Villanova, Sacred Heart, and Queens. So far, both Duquesne (3-0) and Villanova (2-1) have beaten the other two teams, setting up, effectively, a championship matchup in this MTE on Saturday.
While the Dukes are unbeaten to this point, they did need overtime to get past Queens earlier this week. Meanwhile, Villanova’s only blemish was a season-opening loss to BYU, a current top-10 team.
What does Duquesne need to do to pull off the road upset? Here are three keys to watch.
1. John Hugley vs Duke Brennan inside
Through 3-4 games in Atlantic 10 play, Xavier transfer John Hugley IV has emerged as an early contender for Conference POY. He leads the Dukes with 19.7 ppg and 9.0 rpg, both are second in the league. On the opposite side is Brennan, a 6’10 transfer forward from Grand Canyon who is averaging 11.7 ppg and 15.3 rpg, which currently leads the entire nation.
The Dukes do have frontcourt depth to throw at Brennan, including David Dixon and Stef van Bussel. Villanova doesn’t have much depth, so any foul trouble would benefit the Dukes. Still, the Nova big man will be the toughest test to date for the A-10 frontcourt.
2. Defending Bryce Lindsay
One of the biggest impact transfers in the nation so far is Lindsay, a 6’3 transfer guard from James Madison who has gone from Sun Belt 6th Man of the year to leading the Wildcats with 24.7 ppg, shooting 51% from the field and a whopping 54% from three-point range on over nine attempts a game.
Look for 6’5 starting guard Jimmie Williams to get the main defensive assignment on him, with slowing Lindsay down a significant key. The Dukes have done a good job in taking away a team’s top scorer, but this will be a very tough task on Saturday.
3. Battle of the 3-pointers
Duquesne survived an upset bid against Queens, despite shooting 4/23 from three-point range. Overall, the Dukes are shooting 27% from deep, good for 323rd entering Friday. While they are 6th nationally inside the arc (68%), that may not translate well against a bigger Villanova squad.
Meanwhile, Villanova is top-30 nationally in 3s made (12) and attempted (32), shooting 37% from deep. After going 22/43 against Sacred Heart, it’s clear that the Wildcats will want to take a ton of long balls. Good news for Duquesne is that it’s been a strength of theirs on the defensive end, ranked 35th in the nation, giving up under 24% from deep.
The Dukes may not win the three-point battle, but as long as they don’t lose it by a ton, they could have a shot at the road upset.