Mid-major conferences are desperate to land a second team in the NCAA Tournament. While that is a long shot this season, we’re investigating who has the Missouri Valley Conference’s best chance at landing an at-large bid?
Four Valley teams are currently in the national evaluation tool’s (NET) top 100, so they are the obvious finalists for this opportunity. Belmont (10-1) is the obvious choice due to their nine non-conference wins and their 49 NET ranking. Preseason favorite Illinois State (8-3) is next in the NET at 84, but they have just two of their eight victories are against teams in the top 200 at kenpom.com.
Number 92 Murray State (8-3) owns two of the MVC’s best non-conference victories. The Racers defeated Akron (41) and George Washington (73) for the league’s only top 100 wins so far. Northern Iowa (8-2) has picked up five, top-200 wins and have a non-conference tilt with number 17 Saint Mary’s this week.
While all these rankings will change as the season wears on, these four teams are the Valley’s best shot at an at-large bid. For the MVC to gain such a rare addition their regular season champion will need to win 16 to 17 games just to be in the conversation.
Then they would need to win two games at the MVC Tournament in St. Louis. The Bruins have one remaining non-conference game with UC Irvine (137). If they can win that game and come up with those 17 conference wins, Casey Alexander’s team would finish 29-5 on ‘Selection Sunday’. Obviously, any of these other contenders would have records that were slightly worse.
As a refresher, Indiana State’s 28-6 in 2024 wasn’t deemed good enough by the selection committee to send an invitation to Terre Haute.