The first two rounds of this year's NCAA Tournament may not have had the chaos and Cinderella upsets (or buzzer-beaters) that so many fans cheer for, but hey, on the bright side - we have some absolutely fantastic matchups in the Sweet 16. As March Madness rolls on tonight, let's take a closer look at each team and why they can make a Final Four Trip to San Antonio.
Note: All efficiency ratings per: https://kenpom.com/
EAST REGION
(1) Duke (33-3): Statistical metrics point to Duke (not Auburn) as the best team in the land, and at this late point of the season, the data is plenty trustworthy. The Blue Devils own the nation's best offense & fourth-best defense. John Scheyer's team (still takes time to not type Coach K) has lost one time since November 26th. Oh and speaking of the best, they have the best player in the country as well. Freshman Cooper Flagg (19 points, 8 rebounds & 4 assists per game).
(2) Alabama (27-8): Last year Alabama made a Final Four with the 2nd best offense in the country & the 111th best defense in the country. They simply outscored the competition. This year the Crimson Tide ranked 4th nationally in offense (impressive again) & 32nd best defensively in the country. Nate Oats' team plays at the fastest tempo in the country, and they make shots consistently. 5th-year senior guard Mark Sears is the key for the Tide. He's an elite scorer and All-American but tends to turn the ball over at times. Keep an eye on Sears' turnover count - if it stays low, they win.
(4) Arizona (24-12): The Wildcats senior star guard Caleb Love is a roller coaster of emotion. He's the biggest X-factor in the entire NCAA Tournament. At times he's brilliant & dominant, at other times he's inefficient and baffling. When he's on, they can beat anyone and I mean anyone. Cats hammer teams on the boards with their size & length and their offensive efficiency has really improved of late. Tommy Lloyd in his fourth season at Arizona, has never owned a seed worse than this year's 4-seed and has never made a Final Four. Maybe it's time he breaks through to college basketball's promise land?
(6) BYU (26-9): The Cougars play a beautiful style of basketball. They share the ball, limit turnovers, and shoot it well too. They aren't overly athletic, so at times, they can struggle in a track meet-type game. But when they are hitting their perimeter shots, they are just about unbeatable: re: a 91-57 drubbing of Kansas earlier this year. They won't be scared to get into an offensive track meet with Alabama. First to 90 points wins!
WEST REGION
(1) Florida (32-4): The Gators already slayed the dragon that was Dan Hurley and the two-time defending National Champions. That was no small feat. In its most basic sense, the Gators simply find ways to win. You don't make it to a Sweet 16 with only four losses all season, without being incredibly skilled on both sides of the ball. The Gators are chameleon-like. They can morph their game to find any way needed to win. They're happy to win scoring 70pts....80pts.....90pts - their opponent's tempo doesn't impact their game, that's a helpful trait in March.
(3) Texas Tech (27-8): In all of the games throughout the entire season, the Red Raiders own the most impressive win, an 82-81 OT win AT Houston. It remains the only blemish from a Houston team going back to NOVEMBER 30TH(!). If you can accomplish that, you are Final Four good. Big 12 Player of the Year, JT Toppin leads an experienced and gritty team. While Toppin is fantastic, they have so many ways to beat you. Heck, they've made a Sweet 16 without their third-leading scorer Chance McMillian. He may return tonight and with him another experienced scoring option. They just might be the favorite to win this region.......
(4) Maryland (27-8): Fear the Turtle. The Terrapins truly have no major weaknesses. They are supremely talented and have a nice blend of experience & youth with a freshman, soon-to-be NBA player, big man Derik Queen who hit the one true buzzer-beater of the opening weekend to top Colorado State. While questions continue to swirl regarding head coach Kevin Willard's tenure (and potential switch to Villanova) he can flat-out coach.
(10) Arkansas (22-13): Coach Calipari's team started the SEC season 0-5. They've walked into the darkness and come out on the other side. They fear nothing and play like a team that has been given a second life. Their talent has never been questioned, but it has taken all season for the Hogs to ultimately catch their stride, mostly due to the fact they are finally healthy. Boogie Fland returned last weekend and leading scorer Adou Thiero will be back from injury tonight. Add in DJ Wagner, who has All-American talent and they aren't your traditional 10-seed.
SOUTH REGION
(1) Auburn (30-5): Well deserving #1 overall seed, the Tigers have had a historically great regular season. In an NCAA Tournament with so much chalk (so many top seeds) still left - the Tiger's best characteristic sure does play: They beat good teams. Bruce Pearl's team was 17-5 vs. Quad 1 opponents this year. (yes, you read that correctly there was a 1 in front of the 7) That's SEVEN more top-tier wins than Duke. They also have star power: Johni Broome is battling Duke's Cooper Flagg for National Player of the Year.
(2) Michigan State (29-6): January, February, Izzo, April....... The Spartans are less talented than in recent years, but the sum of the parts & fantastic chemistry has created Izzo's best TEAM in recent memory. Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games often become a cage-matches in the last four minutes of the game, and there is no other coach in the country who's been through more wars. Izzo's coaching in his 16th Sweet 16, and already owns eight trips to the Final Four. Oh, and dazzling ultra-talented Jase Richardon (yes, he's the son of former Spartan star Jason Richardson) has the chance to become a star over the next few weeks.
(5) Michigan (27-9): Wolverines, winners of the Big Ten tournament - win with defense (14th in the nation). When they get shots they can really score, but their Achilles heel has been an uncommonly high amount of turnovers (328th ranked). If they limit turnovers they are Final Four good. Throw in the most underrated coach in the country - Dusty May. Friendly reminder note: May guided a Florida Atlantic team to a Final Four two years ago. If you take Florida Atlantic to a Final Four, they taking Michigan doesn't seem so daunting. Roddy Gayle (an Ohio State transfer.....gasp) is their X-factor. He has always played well in March, and when he is aggressive and making shots, Michigan is unbeatable - just ask Texas A&M, who he dropped 26 points on.
(6) Ole Miss (24-11): Rebels are the traditional Chris Beard team - they never turn the ball over (like ever), they create turnovers at a rapid rate, and they hang their hat on the defensive side of the ball. Ole Miss is battle-tested from the grind of the rugged SEC. Senior guard Sean Pedulla might be the most important player on any team remaining in the tournament. He's scored 20 points in each of the first two NCAA Tournament games, but his intangibles and leadership are contagious.
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Houston (32-4): On November 30th, Houston fell to San Diego State and their record dropped to 4-3. Since that day, 26-1. That includes a 22-1 Big 12 record. That's hard to do on Xbox, let alone in real life, let alone making trips to Kansas & Texas Tech and most recently fending off a very talented Gonzaga team. What makes Houston so dangerous? Yes, they again have their incredibly tough defense, but they also are the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the country. This is likely the best team Kelvin Sampson has ever assembled, and that's a staggering thought. In a region with the top 4 seeds all still alive, get your popcorn ready.
(2) Tennessee (29-7): Tennessee, as they have for the last decade, under Rick Barnes is exceptional on the defensive end (3rd nationally). Senior point guard Zakai Zeigler will be quite hungry for an elusive Final Four appearance. His freshmen year - a 2nd round loss. His sophomore year - a Sweet 16 loss. His junior year - an Elite 8 loss. Will his trend continue again with a trip to the Final Four?
(3) Kentucky (24-11): In an era where head coaches stomp around the sidelines and constantly look miserable - enter Mark Pope. A refreshing and positive leader who has guided his Wildcats to a resoundingly successful first season at his alma mater. UK's offense is Final Four good, as we saw when they absolutely torched the nets in the second half vs. Illinois. But it's been their defense that has improved of late. SDSU transfer Lamont Butler, who played in a Final Four two years ago, anchors their defense and returned from injury just in time for the tournament. They've already beaten Tennessee twice this season.....good things come in threes......
(4) Purdue (24-11): Matt Painter. That's the reason. Yes, Purdue has the reigning Big 10 player of the year in generationally good passing point guard Braden Smith, and yes, Purdue is yet again a fantastic offensive team - ranked in the Top 10 nationally - but they are at their best because of the steady hand of Painter. Painter has taken criticism over the years for early-round NCAA Tournament exits, but he finally got the monkey off his back during last year's trip to the National Title game. Did you know Trey Kaufman-Renn ranks 7th in player of the year metrics at Ken Pom? He's sneaky good in the paint and goodness will the Boilers need him vs. a rugged Houston team.