It’s now been an entire decade that Greg Gard has been in charge of Wisconsin basketball. The longtime assistant succeeded Bo Ryan back in late 2015 and led the Badgers to consecutive Sweet Sixteens and has won a pair of Big Ten titles along the way. However, Wisconsin has had shortcomings in the postseason and actually has not returned to the second weekend of the Big Dance since that second run back in 2016.
It was more of the same last year for a Badgers squad that won 27 games, finished 4th in a very strong Big Ten, and grabbed a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, Wisconsin was undone in a close battle with BYU in the second round, falling short again. Last year the Badgers had a great offensive season that was really made possible by an offseason transfer who rose to an All-American level.
John Tonje put up nearly 20 points per outing in his lone season in Madison and really spearheaded the offense for the Badgers last season. They’ll definitely miss him in this upcoming year, but it’s not all bad for Wisconsin. Sure they also lost Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit, and a few other faces, but the Badgers only had two double-digit scorers last season and have some intriguing talent on the rise this year.
Gard and his staff have built another solid foundation here and we’ll be taking a look at just what to expect this season. We’ll run through the key pieces on the roster, both those important returners and the new freshmen and transfers. Some overarching statements will be made on Wisconsin’s direction after we look at their schedule, but we won’t really know what to assume from these Badgers until we see them in action in a few weeks.
Projected Starters
Guard – Nick Boyd (Senior)
Perhaps the most important piece of a solid transfer class, Boyd is a 6-3 guard from New York who shined with Florida Atlantic before taking a step forward last season at San Diego State. With the Aztecs, Boyd averaged 13.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game and now gets a chance to run the point for a Big Ten school in his final collegiate campaign.
Guard – John Blackwell (Junior)
There’s no question that Blackwell is the big returner for the Badgers and should be the guy the offense runs through this upcoming season. He’s coming off a hot sophomore season, averaging 15.8 points and 5.1 rebounds in his first year as a starter. Blackwell continues to develop his game and is now an underclassman with even more on his shoulders. Can his long-range shot take a step forward as a junior?
Guard – Andrew Rohde (Senior)
Rohde was phenomenal as a freshman at St. Thomas in the Summit League, putting up more than 17 points per game for the Tommies. He’s coming back to his home state of Wisconsin after two mediocre seasons out at Virginia, though he showed signs last season. Rohde put up 9.3 points and 4.3 assists for the Cavaliers last season with solid shooting metrics and the Badgers are hoping they get a complete and efficient season out of him in his fourth collegiate campaign.
Forward – Austin Rapp (Sophomore)
Rapp is a 6-10 forward originally from Melbourne, Australia who really put on a show in his first collegiate efforts last season. As a freshman at Portland, he averaged 13.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game for the Pilots and was named WCC Rookie of the Year. He’ll have every opportunity to be a prominent piece of Wisconsin’s frontcourt even as a sophomore, especially after leading the WCC with 3-point shooting last year.
Forward – Nolan Winter (Junior)
The other major returner from last year’s starting lineup, Winter is back for year three in Madison. A former Top 100 recruit, he’s a 6-11 forward who put up 9.4 points and 5.8 rebounds as the Badgers’ starter at the 5 last season and will have every chance to grow on that season. He led the Big Ten by making 71.5% of his 2-point field goal attempts and will only be depended on more to bring offense and defense in the paint.
Key Reserves
Guard – Braeden Carrington (Senior)
A 6-4 guard originally from Minnesota, Carrington steps into a role with the Badgers after two seasons in the Big Ten with the Golden Gophers and a year out at Tulsa. Last year was his most productive campaign, putting up 7.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per outing with the Golden Hurricane. He’s a solid veteran backcourt piece coming off the bench, though Gard and company are hoping his shooting can take another step forward.
Guard – Zach Kinziger (Freshman)
A 4-star guard out of De Pere, Wisconsin, Kinziger was one of the highest rated recruits in the Badger State and joins this backcourt. He’s a natural shooter with a smooth shot and great ball handling ability, though we’ll see how Kinziger adjust to the collegiate game. There’s a shot for real contributions if he can find his shot early in his career.
Guard – Jack Janicki (Sophomore)
While there are a few other faces back in Madison, Janicki is one to keep an eye on. The Minnesota native didn’t put the gaudiest numbers last season, averaging just 1.9 points and 1.4 rebounds per game. However, he did play in every game and had some signs of brilliance, including an 11-point performance against Purdue late in the season.
Forward – Elijah Gray (Senior)
The fifth and final piece of an active transfer class, Gray steps into what should be a solid reserve role in the Badgers’ frontcourt. The 6-8 forward played a pair of years at Fordham before spending last season at Temple, putting up 9.0 points and 3.8 rebounds per game off the bench. Gray adds size and experience to the frontcourt and really produced in his limited minutes with the Owls last season, something Wisconsin is hoping he can match in the Big Ten.
Guard – Hayden Jones (Freshman)
An intriguing find from overseas, Jones is a 6-7 shooting guard from New Zealand. He got valuable experience playing at the international level this past offseason and joins the Badgers with solid fundamentals and shotmaking ability. He’s more of a team player who’s smart with the basketball who’ll make key shots when needed, but we’ll see what kind of run he gets in his first season at the college level.
Forward – Aleksas Bieliauskas (Freshman)
The Badgers shore up a need with Bieliauskas, considered a 4-star prospect by most recruiting sites. A 6-9 forward from Lithuania, he’s not just a presence around the basket, as Bieliauskas can also knock down shots outside the arc. He’s not quite a finished product, but he projects as a solid shooter and rebounder who can cause havoc both in and outside the paint.
Schedule Outlook
The new pieces in town get to ease into the lineup, as Wisconsin’s first four games are home tuneups. However, they’ll hunt for revenge in Salt Lake City on November 21, taking on BYU in a highly-anticipated matchup. The Badgers then head to San Diego for the Rady Children’s Invitational around Thanksgiving, facing off against Providence and then either TCU or Florida.
December brings additional intrigue with that brief first look at Big Ten play, including a road test at Nebraska. The Badgers also get their rivalry matchup against Marquette on December 6, with this matchup coming at home in Madison. A few weeks later, they’ll be down in Milwaukee to face Villanova as part of the Milwaukee Hoops Showdown. Two more nonconference tilts back in Madison remain before league play starts in earnest in January.
With the growth of the Big Ten, the Badgers aren’t seeing many teams twice each season. They’ll be heavily tested in a pair of matchups against Purdue, hosting the Boilermakers in early January before heading to West Lafayette in March to finish the regular season. Wisconsin has to face Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon on the road in their only matchups in what actually amounts to a not-so-friendly schedule.
Season Outlook
When last season tipped off for the Badgers, few expected Tonje to become such an explosive player. There were high expectations for him after his previous work, but becoming an All-American and topping 19 points a game was a little out of left field. We’re not expecting any of the new or returning faces in Madison to have this kind of explosive campaign, but it just goes to show what the Badgers are replacing.
Instead of that explosiveness, you can expect a little more balance from the Badgers offensively this season. We could see monumental numbers from both Blackwell and Winter in their third seasons in Wisconsin, but they alone can’t lead the charge for this team. Regardless, Blackwell can be a dynamic shooter when he’s on his game and Winter has the potential to become one of the best paint presences in the Big Ten.
Let’s not ignore what the newcomers will bring and a lot of attention will be on Boyd. He wasn’t one of the stars, but was a big piece of that Florida Atlantic run in 2023 and turned into a more complete player during his year at San Diego State. Throwing him into a leadership role in this backcourt will only help Blackwell’s development. We can’t forget about Rohde and Carrington as well, as both of them are hoping to become consistent scorers here.
That backcourt is going to get a lot of the attention this season but we have to talk about the frontcourt. We’ve spoken several times about what Winter brings to the equation but there are question marks behind him. Can Rapp match that level of productivity that he put up as a freshman in the WCC? Does Bieliauskas step up in his first year in the states and give Wisconsin big minutes and production?
If Winter gets in foul trouble then the defense of the Badgers will really suffer this season unless they have a major development in that frontcourt. Fortunately, with what they’ve added they should have the guard play to still be a very explosive team. Expect big things in year three from Blackwell and for Boyd running the show, but will it really be enough to finally get this team a significant postseason run?