Wisconsin matches up against Butler as part of the Indy Classic in Indianapolis on Saturday; will the Bulldogs get their season back on track with a ranked win or do the Badgers get their own bounce back performance?
TV schedule: Saturday, December 14, 2:30 pm ET. BTN
Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
After a brilliant start to the season, Wisconsin (8-3) hasn’t looked great since the calendar flipped to December. The first month of the season featured nice wins over Arizona and Pittsburgh but this three-game skid has been brutal. It’s not like some flip switched; the Badgers have played a tough schedule and competed on the road at Marquette and Illinois before falling in both of those games.
A major reason for Wisconsin’s early success has been the play of John Tonje (20.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg), the former Colorado State guard who might be one of the top scoring threats in the entire Big Ten. When he’s at his best, Wisconsin can hang with anyone. Sophomore John Blackwell (14.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) has taken an established step forward in his second year with the Badgers while Max Klesmit (12.3 ppg, 2.9 apg) has proved productive despite some inefficient shooting in recent weeks.
Wisconsin enters play 20th in the AP Top 25, though this week’s loss at Illinois might bump them out of the poll. After all they’ve fallen to 35th in KenPom and 38th in the NET rankings and have shown liability on the defensive end. The offense looks great and like we mentioned operates at a high level when Tonje is at his best. However, teams may be double-covering Tonje and the long-range shooting just hasn’t gotten the job done during this losing streak.
However, the story is worse at Butler (7-3) despite some positive moments earlier in this season. The Bulldogs have already dropped a pair of head scratching losses at home, losing to Austin Peay in early November before losing to North Dakota State earlier this week. They have a couple of nice wins over Northwestern and Mississippi State but how reliable is this program in the long run in the Big East?
Year two out of Jahmyl Telfort (17.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg) has had stellar results, though the senior guard alone isn’t the only face to watch on this Butler squad. Former Michigan State guard Pierre Brooks (14.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is another prominent piece in his second year with the Bulldogs, with both putting up great shooting figures. The other figure putting up production is Patrick McCaffery (12.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg), the Iowa transfer and sharpshooter who’s made 46% of his 3-pointers and fits in nicely in Thad Matta’s system.
Now losers of two straight, the Bulldogs have fallen to 71st in both KenPom and the NET rankings. Getting blanked by Houston last weekend wasn’t shocking, but their defensive performance against North Dakota State was just unacceptable. There’s certainly talent at the top of this lineup, but the frontcourt and interior offense just isn’t getting the job done, with Butler shooting under 33% from inside the arc in their last two games.
Both of these teams badly need not just a win but a fantastic performance. These were two resumes that looked pretty good a few weeks ago and this showdown in Indianapolis is an opportunity. Butler absolutely needs a better showing out of their frontcourt and you could argue the same about the Badgers, who’ll need to showcase more than just Tonje to get their season back on track.
We’re leaning towards Wisconsin in this matchup and not just because of their national ranking. This matchup presents opportunity for the Bulldogs to get their offense back on track, but do they really have an answer to stopping Tonje and the long-range shooting attack? The Bulldogs have the home-state advantage and have three very talented pieces, but it’s going to take a great shooting effort to topple a Badgers squad that’s just looked better this year.
Prediction: Wisconsin 75, Butler 69