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College Basketball: Busting Brackets Mailbag Vol. 2

By Chris Godfrey

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Despite fielding questions about my chances in a Punjabi Prison wrestling match and the mysterious origins of the spelling of Montrezl Harrell‘s name in the first mailbag, I somehow got green-lighted to resume this gimmick for a second time (I’m legitimately excited about this)!

In case you’re unfamiliar with the process, you can check out the first Q&A here, but the gist is simple. Readers, friends, and family send in their college basketball comments and questions. I answer them.

If you want to take part in the next mailbag, and you don’t have my personal cell phone number, tweet your questions to @BustingBrackets while using the hashtag #BustingBracketsMailbag (I’m trying to come up with a shorter hashtag, maybe #BBMailbag?). Let’s see what’s in the bag…

Alright too lazy to tweet a question so I’ll do it here (Facebook). I want to follow a team this year NOT named Kentucky or Duke that has a shot at making serious noise come March. Any thoughts on who I should be watching and taking notice of this year?

-Kevin from Manhattan, NY

This is a difficult season to be a casual college basketball fan. The first rule of casual college basketball fandom is that you can’t root for Duke or Kentucky. Upon introduction to the game, the two things you learn about college basketball is that Duke is inherently evil (they’re even nicknamed the Blue DEVILS for crying out loud), and that there is no more room on the Kentucky bandwagon.

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    • Some people really dig the “evil empire” deal, and latch on to Duke anyway, but there’s really only two ways into the Big Blue Nation — you’re either born into the family, or you receive a mysterious Kentucky Wildcats duffel bag filled with money weeks before you make your college decision (there’s a possibility I’m bitter about Isaiah Briscoe committing to Kentucky instead of my beloved St. John’s Red Storm).

    Kevin, I feel your pain. It’s hard to get wrapped up in the madness less than two months away from Selection Sunday when the only two teams that seem to have a reasonable shot at cutting the nets are Duke and Kentucky.
    Though I hate to be the bearer of bad news, it seems very likely that we’re on our way to a Kentucky-Duke national championship game, but if you wish to fight the good fight and vehemently root against this occurrence, here’s a few teams that could make your dreams come true.

    • Virginia – These Cavs are the antithesis of the Cavs you’re probably accustomed to seeing in Cleveland. These Cavs play DEFENSE. Head coach Tony Bennett has his team playing the most suffocating defense in the country, which has led to an undefeated record and legitimate questions about whether or not they could stifle Kentucky enough to win on a neutral floor. From a rooting standpoint, you’ll get two (possibly three…hell, maybe even four) chances to see this team beat Duke during the remainder of the season. Also, there’s no pressure to memorize players and stats. No one knows who plays for Virginia. Don’t worry. They like it like that. Becoming a fan also includes a really cool “Hoo Crew” t-shirt.
    • Gonzaga – If I just bored the life out of you while talking about defense (in all caps, no less), and using words like “stifle” when pitching Virginia as your new favorite team, that means you’re probably better suited as a Gonzaga fan. The Zags score points just as well as Virginia prevents them. They score from the outside with Kevin Pangos, one of the nation’s best point guards. They score above the rim with an almost never-ending supply of athletic wing players. And if that wasn’t enough, they have THREE of the country’s best big men in Donatas Sabonis, Kyle Wiltjer and Przemek Karnowski (who is rumored to be a first cousin of the Busting Brackets Yeti).
    • Utah – This is the hipster pick among college basketball fans. You can impress your friends by telling them that you knew the Utes would be this good because you watched Delon Wright light teams up after midnight on the Pac-12 Network last season. If you really want to pretend to be in the know, you can claim to be one of the six people on the planet who knew who Jakob Poeltl was before this season, when he seemingly emerged from the Great Salt Lake and immediately became an NBA Draft prospect. The Utes may not be considered a serious Final Four threat (especially after their humbling loss to Arizona), but they’re definitely a fun team to adopt for the remainder of the season.

    An interesting question with a short answer — NO.

    In case you didn’t know, Bud Walton Arena, where the Razorbacks play their home games, is an absolute house of horrors for opposing teams. After Kentucky knocked off Louisville to end their non-conference schedule, the entire country collectively circled the Wildcats trip to Arkansas as their next possible stumbling block…until they realized that Kentucky doesn’t play the Hogs on the road this year, and then we started all of the undefeated talk.

    Yes, “Arkansas at home” as a separate entity is a legitimate contender to beat Kentucky. However, “Arkansas on the road” is liable to lose by 30 at Rupp. Before Arkansas’ strange home loss to Ole Miss yesterday, the Razorbacks were 11-0 at home with all three of their losses coming on the road.

    The reality of Arkansas’ current standing in the college basketball landscape is this. The Hogs are an average team with a very good home court advantage. Their top 20 ranking has proven to be a bit of premature recognition.

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    Though the team continues to grow and progress, it’s safe to say that their roster, which features six juniors, may be a year away from mastering the art of consistency. This is a key component for being successful on the road.

    At home, the Razorbacks have been dominant, but they also haven’t played any good teams. Their two best wins this season are their two road wins (Georgia and SMU). The best team Arkansas has beaten at home thus far is Dayton, in a 14-point victory that very well may have been a loss if the game was played at Dayton.

    As their level of competition ramps up in the SEC, I would actually expect the disparity between their home and away performances to widen.

    Time for a quick lightning round of “In or Out” mailbag questions. I’m sure I will get 80 of these throughout the next month…

    Will Seton Hall make the tournament?

    -Dylan from Long Island, NY

    YES

    Will St. John’s make the tournament?

    -Everyone I went to college with…

    YES

    Are Michigan and Michigan State both headed to the NIT?

    -Everyone I went to high school with

    Michigan State will dance. Michigan is looking like a strong candidate for a #1 seed in the other tournament.

    There’s only two legitimate opportunities for this to happen in the regular season. Kentucky has a two game stretch where they play at Florida on a Saturday before playing at LSU the following Tuesday.

    Florida could catch fire and keep the game close enough for something stupid to happen. LSU is an athletic bunch with three future pros on the roster. Their chances of an upset are enhanced by the short turnaround time between their meeting and Kentucky’s game with the Gators.

    If the Wildcats get through that unscathed, it will be smooth sailing until at least the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

    According to Jeff Sagarin, Kentucky’s win probability for those games is 87% (at Florida) and 96% (at LSU). Sagarin’s win probability numbers seem to also give Georgia (91%) and South Carolina (90%) enough hope to at least justify showing up.

    If you were wondering, Kentucky has a 100% win probability against Auburn in a conference game that has not even been played. Sheesh.

    Who wins the Kevin Love Memorial award for college basketball’s best (American born) white guy?

    -Samuel from Providence, RI

    Did something happen to Frank “The Tank” Kaminsky that I am not aware of? No? OK, well it’s Kaminsky. Since that was very anticlimactic, I’ll give you the entire Kevin Love Memorial Award Watch List (since the Wooden Watch List reveal was such a big deal even though everyone who has watched a single college basketball game this year knows that the only two names in consideration are Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor).

    Surprisingly, no one has created a three-second YouTube clip of Dr. Dre saying “HELL YEAH” for me to insert as the answer to this question (believe me, I looked for it). So you’ll have to settle for hearing it from me.

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    Hell yeah. He’s definitely getting canned if he fails to make it back to the tournament with a veteran-laden roster (six scholarship seniors) that also includes two underclassmen with NBA futures (Rysheed Jordan and Chris Obekpa).

    However, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about this too much. As I mentioned earlier in the bag, I think the Johnnies will dance. The Big East isn’t the gauntlet that it once was, and once this team finds its bearings within the conference, they’ll move safely into the field. Their wins against St. Mary’s and Syracuse will look better in March. They may even get a boost from their Minnesota win if the Gophers can tread water in the Big Ten. Plus, there are home games against Duke and Villanova left on the schedule.

    There’s a definite sense of impatience growing in Queens. That should be acknowledged. Still, Lavin’s status beyond this season hinges on his ability to fill six scholarship spots on his roster with immediate contributors that can build on the momentum that the program is currently building.

    Though 1-3 isn’t the start that Lavin hoped for within the league, he has to feel confident about getting this team back to the postseason tournament that they belong in, and that will be enough to keep him employed through 2015.

    If I were a betting man, what player would give me the best value to win the Wooden Award?

    -Ty from Haiti

    If you were a betting man, huh? Try this. Take one paycheck and bet it on Jahlil Okafor. Hedge your bet with Frank Kaminsky. If you want to get truly adventurous, throw a few dollars on Jerian Grant. If the Irish win the ACC on the back of Grant’s efforts, he’s got a legitimate shot. Notre Dame plays Duke twice and Louisville once. If they win two of those three games, they’ll win at least a share of the ACC. Google chat me and we can discuss how to split the winnings.

    Next: Duke Blue Devils: Masterful Adjustments Net Win Over Louisville

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