Who’s There: Big Ten Conference Locks and Bubble Teams

No bubble is more crowded than that of the Big Ten Conference as we stare down the final month of the regular season. Though Maryland’s photo-finish home win over Indiana likely moves the Terps to the threshold of lock status, six teams remain whose resumes still seek the postseason promised land, or, as I like to simplify it: “there.”

But first, because this is new, a quick primer on the scale of “there.”

THERE – Tourney lock. Losing out in the most comical fashion wouldn’t change it.

RIGHT THERE – Basically a lock. Would have to really skunk it up to fall to the NIT.

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GETTING THERE – On a lock trajectory. Need to stay the course with a .500 or better finish.

HANGING IN THERE – Still have work to do. Going to need a strong finish.

TECHINCALLY STILL THERE – Got an outside shot. Likely need to make noise in the conference tournament.

NOT THERE – On the outside looking in. Barring a minor miracle, need to win the conference tournament.

For good measure, let’s start from the top.

THERE

#5 WISCONSIN (22-2, 10-1 B1G)

The Badgers are off to the best start in program history and stand as one of the nation’s handful of elite teams. However, they sit on the two-seed line in our Busting Bracketology because the Badgers have played a grand total of one then-ranked opponent since falling to Duke in early December.

There are some big (pun most intended) opportunities, though, down the stretch. Two road dates against likely top 25 teams loom- at Maryland to end February and at Ohio State to close out the season.

RIGHT THERE

#19 MARYLAND (20-5, 8-4 B1G)

Maryland ought to be a lock now. Wednesday’s 68-66 win over Indiana coupled with nonconference wins over tourney-bound Iowa State and upward-trending Oklahoma State put them above the rest of the non-Wisconsin B1G teams.

Their only losses come against teams in the exact same conversation.

The schedule presents few significant challenges until the February 24 tilt with Wisconsin. That will be the biggest B1G game thus far, in which a win would most certainly get them there.

#23 OHIO STATE (19-6, 8-4 B1G)

Ohio State fans have all the reason to be excited about the postseason because D’Angelo Russell is unequivocally the real deal. The Buckeyes have two good B1G home wins against Maryland and Indiana. If only they had stolen a big non-con win, either at Louisville or against Carolina, they’d be there.

OSU will celebrate Valentine’s Day in the Breslin Center. And they’ll go through Ann Arbor next. If they can avenge their loss to Purdue, all’s clear leading to the season-ending showdown with Wisconsin. They’re in if they win two of these games.

GETTING THERE

INDIANA (17-8, 7-5 B1G)

Indiana is borderline right there, but they certainly still fall into the getting there category. They have better wins than Maryland and Ohio State, sporting home victories over both, as well as non-cons over Butler, Pitt and SMU.

The best thing the Hoosiers have going for them is their remaining schedule. Only home contests against Iowa and Michigan State, and a grudge match against Purdue should really challenge them. IU needs to go .500 in the final six games, anything less would be testy waters.

MICHIGAN STATE (16-8, 7-4 B1G)

Honestly, Michigan State would be right there if it wasn’t for Illinois. Yes, they still are a stellar rebounding unit as expected of any Izzo team. Yet Sparty sits precariously at 47^th in the RPI, and is among our first four out in Busting Bracketology.

I still think the Spartans are on the right track. Their remaining slate includes visits from OSU, Minnesota and Purdue, and road tests at Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. They’ll have to, and they should, go at least 4-3 in this stretch to get there.

IOWA (15-9, 6-5 B1G)

The Hawkeyes just sutured a 3-game losing streak with wins at Michigan and home against Maryland. Then they drop one at home to Minny, but they’re still getting there. A December win over Carolina and a sweep of Ohio State do help matters.

But I’m not sure if I can trust this team down the stretch. They did made the last year’s First Four as a 12 loss team. In Iowa’s has seven remaining games, they have a visit from Illinois, and a trip to Bloomington. There are four games against the bottom four B1G teams. A 4-3 finish should be attainable, but now their margin for error is thinning.

HANGING IN THERE

ILLINOIS (17-8, 7-5 B1G)

Illinois has done as much lately as any other team not there. The win in East Lansing, though not as impressive as it typically is, is still a solid conference road win. They’ve lost to a few non-tourney teams, but wins over Maryland and Baylor keep them in the game.

Now the Illini have some chances to establish a tourney trajectory. The next two Sundays (at Wisconsin, vs Michigan State) will be telling.

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TECHNICALLY STILL THERE

PURDUE (16-9, 8-4 B1G)

I want to ride the Boilermaker train, I really do. But I don’t see it unless they do no worse than 5-2, and they need win either at Indiana, at Michigan State or at Ohio State. They still have Illinois, who has the most climbing to do of any B1G bubble team not named Purdue. The home loss to Gardner-Webb isn’t as bad as it sounds, but I’m sure it will be counted against them.

NOT THERE

MICHIGAN, NEBRASKA, MINNESOTA, PENN STATE, RUTGERS, NORTHWESTERN.

Tough season for Michigan. Certainly some unmet expectations in Lincoln, but hey, at least they exist. Richard Pitino hasn’t taken Minny to the next level yet. Familiar territory for Penn State, Rutgers and especially Northwestern.

Next: Three Thoughts on Kentucky Win Against South Carolina

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