College Basketball: Teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Madness is near, and as is tradition for college hoops fans, the calm before the storm comes in the form of endless prognosticating about who will and won’t find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. Those teams mired in uncertainty sit on “the bubble” (a term that sort of just appeared one day and no one questioned its validity…but I digress).

In mid-February, the bubble is a place of comfort. College basketball teams are eternally optimistic, truly relishing the opportunity to control their own destiny. It’s a “win and you’re in” situation, but a lack of wins (read: quality wins) is the very reason why they’re bubble teams to begin with.

Rhode Island (16-6, 9-3 A-10) RPI: 69 SOS: 137

The Rams are sitting close to the top of the Atlantic-10, but their profile lacks pizzazz at the moment. There are quality wins to be had later on their schedule, though. Home games against UMass and Dayton are must wins coming down the stretch. Also, a road win at Dayton would make a return trip to their building for the First Four a probable occurrence. Rhodey needs big wins, but they have the talent to get them, and that makes them a scary team on the outside looking in.

Davidson (16-6, 8-4 A-10) RPI: 59 SOS: 126

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t even realize Davidson was in the A-10 this year. The Wildcats and Coach Bob McKillop are new to this bubble madness. In years past, McKillop would be preparing his men for a one-game season against Wofford in the Southern Conference tournament final (by the way, Wofford is REALLY good this year). Instead, he’s attempting to navigate a minefield of talented teams at the tail end of his schedule. The Davidson hat currently hangs on wins against UMass and Dayton, but two shots at George Washington and a home game against VCU are on tap. Their trip to Rhode Island will be one of the bubble games of the year.

UMass (16-9, 9-3 A-10) RPI: 37 SOS: 34

An overall record of 16-9 isn’t cause to write home to mother, especially when you play in the A-10, but the Minutemen have some other numbers that look really good on the scrolling marquee. Coach Derek Kellogg is in enviable spot of having numbers that may look better than his team. Kellogg’s team took a ton of early season losses to tough competition (Notre Dame, Providence, LSU, Harvard, Florida Gulf Coast, BYU), but they’ve been rewarded for their bravery with golden computer numbers that give them more margin for error than most teams can even dream about at this time of the year. As long as their computer numbers reside in the thirties, making the dance won’t take anything more than just winning the games that they are favored to win down the stretch. However, going 0-2 on their upcoming road trip against Rhode Island and VCU could change things for the worse.

Purdue (17-9, 9-4 Big Ten) RPI: 65 SOS: 76

Somehow, the Boilermakers have managed to shoot towards the top of the Big Ten standings without making a single blip on the national radar. If you haven’t seen Purdue play this year — they’re huge, they play stifling defense, and everyone plays with a huge chip on their shoulder. They’re essentially the last team anyone wants to play in March. It shouldn’t be completely surprising that the Boilermakers have a shot to dance. Their numbers don’t look good at the moment, but there’s opportunities for improvement coming in the form of three road games against Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan State (Purdue already has home wins against IU and OSU earlier this season). Their two remaining home dates against Rutgers and Illinois are must win games.

Boise State (16-7, 8-4 Mt. West) RPI: 44 SOS: 97

In football, the Broncos are always the trendy pick to crash the party, but the basketball program makes a habit of flying under the radar. The Mountain West has two pretty safe bets for the field in Colorado State and San Diego State, and Boise State’s profile pretty much relies on the success of the those two teams. A losing streak by either team dooms Boise more so than anyone else. The Broncos must continue to roll in the Mountain West, while cheerleading for the big dogs. A tricky road trip to UNLV is next and a trip to San Diego State is up ahead as well, but the Broncos may be sitting pretty as long as they avoid losses to anyone not named Colorado State or San Diego State.

Texas A&M (17-7, 8-4 SEC) RPI: 39 SOS: 86

The SEC is an awful basketball conference. The third best team in the conference behind Kentucky and Arkansas would probably finish 7th in the Atlantic-10…and that’s if we could even decide on a third best team to send out there. Still, the Aggies have somehow emerged from the muck as an incredibly unlikely contender for an at-large berth. Their solid RPI and not horrible SOS number has them in the conversation. However, their actual profile looks dreadful. Texas A&M’s best non-conference win was a nail-biter against Sam Houston State. In conference play, they’ve swung one of the stiffest pillows to get out to a solid record. Still, outside of beating Kentucky in the SEC Tournament (L…O…L), the only quality win to be had is a road game at Arkansas. Without a win over Arkansas or Kentucky, the Aggies could still get to Selection Sunday with 23 wins. Life just isn’t fair.

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Old Dominion (18-6, 7-5 CUSA) RPI: 54 SOS: 133

Sometimes I wonder why no one will hire me to do this sportswriting thing full-time, and then I remember the time I picked Old Dominion as a sleeper pick to make a deep tournament run. It made so much sense at the time. The Monarchs were hovering around the top 25, and had wins over VCU and a Georgia State team that I was also irrationally enamored with (they also beat Richmond and LSU). Five Conference USA losses later, the Monarchs are holding on to slim odds as an at-large contender. Granted, they will be heavy favorites to win the conference’s automatic bid, but ODU has shown the ability to lose to anyone. If this team is sitting at 26-7 on Selection Sunday because they choked away the Conference USA title game, the Monarchs will certainly get in — and that will leave someone who should have danced crying at home.

BYU (18-8, 10-5 WCC) RPI: 58 SOS: 92

The Cougars are now playing the game that St. Mary’s played for so many years before them as a fledgling bubble team in the West Coast Conference. Don’t lose to anyone but Gonzaga…and you probably need to beat Gonzaga too. It’s a tall order that the Bulldogs’ conference foes don’t accomplish often. The fact that this may be Gonzaga’s best team ever doesn’t necessarily help the Cougar cause. If anyone has the firepower to take down Gonzaga, it’s the Cougs, but they may not be absolutely reliant on the Zags. BYU has some smidgens of substance on their schedule. Stanford, UMass, and St. Mary’s are all decent wins. If BYU heads to Selection Sunday with a record of 22-10 with a second win over St. Mary’s and two additional losses to Gonzaga, I like their chances of hearing their name called.

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College Basketball: Under the Radar Teams On the Tournament Bubble

By Chris Godfrey | Feb 18, 2015