Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Preview

Rivalry week continues as the eyes of the Big Ten turn to Bloomington, Indiana for an interesting and important match-up of bitter rivals. It is no secret that the Purdue/Indiana rivalry has lacked a certain amount of national relevance over the past few years.

Tonight’s match-up of the Boilermakers and Hoosiers offer basketball fans vastly different styles and strategies of play. Moreover, the result of tonight’s game could have huge implications for both teams in the Big Ten and the NCAA Tournament. Below is a summary of what happened in the first game, what this game means for both teams and keys to victory.

Previous Meeting – January 28th at Purdue (Purdue 83, #22 Indiana 67)

The Boilermakers took the first game between the two teams in a surprisingly dominant win at Mackey Arena in front a raucous crowd of nearly 15,000. Purdue used its dominant inside presence of A.J. Hammons (7’0″) and Isaac Haas (7’2″) to combine for 15 points and open up driving lanes for 6’5″ junior slasher Raphael Davis (19 points and 5 rebounds). Purdue’s size also disrupted Indiana in other ways. Hammons had 8 blocks and even had Indiana head coach Tom Crean admit it was “ridiculous” that his players continually challenged the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year candidate in the paint.

Hoosiers’ stretch forwards and three-point specialists Collin Hartman and Max Hoetzel combined for 0-4 three-point shooting and 8 fouls as Indiana finished an uncharacteristic 4 – 19 (21%) from three-point range. The lone bright spot for the Hoosiers was all-Big Ten guard Yogi Ferrell who single-handedly kept the Hoosiers within striking distance with 21 points on 9 – 20 shooting.

What’s at stake tonight

Besides in-state bragging rights and fan base gloating, the game tonight has some pretty significant Big Ten and NCAA Tournament stakes. For Indiana, it means protecting their home court, beating an in-state rival and trying to position themselves in one of the coveted “top four” positions for the Big Ten Tournament. The top four finishers in the Big Ten get a double-bye in the tournament and only have to potentially play three games. Right now, both Purdue and Indiana are predicted to be in that mix and this game could go a long way in determining that positioning.

From an NCAA Tournament perspective, the Hoosiers are trying to improve upon what is currently a projected 5-7 seed. The Hoosiers have a very manageable closing stretch of games in the Big Ten (vs. Purdue, @ Rutgers, @ Northwestern, vs. Iowa and vs. Michigan State) and 4-1 is very possible. Couple that with a strong Big Ten Tournament showing and the Hoosiers can position themselves solidly as a dangerous 5-6 seed (maybe even a 4 seed).

The stakes for Purdue are much higher as they are the very definition of a bubble team and have played themselves into the conversation for one of the last spots in the field of 68. Despite currently being tied for second in conference play, the Boilermakers have been frantically trying to cover up bad home, non-conference losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb.

Things were so grim entering conference play, that many questioned the job security of long-time head coach Matt Painter. That talk has tampered with the Boilermakers improved play, but the facts remain that the Boilermakers have not missed the NCAA Tournament for three consecutive years since 2004 – 2006. Their remaining schedule is challenging, but offers them that opportunity (@ Indiana, vs. Rutgers, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, vs. Illinois). The ideal (and probably NCAA solidifying) scenario is that the Boilers hold serve at home and steal one of their road games to head into conference tournament play at 20 – 11 (12 – 6 in conference).

Keys to Victory: Indiana Hoosiers

Key #1: Neutralize Purdue’s Size Advantage

Indiana has a distinct size disadvantage against the burly Boilermakers. The Hoosiers will trot out a lineup tonight with only one player over 6’8″ (Hanner Mosquera-Perea) who was hurt in the first meeting between the teams. They need his presence defensively (1.3 blocks/game) and while limited offensively, he can grab offensive rebounds and get easy put-backs.

Perhaps the bigger impact of Perea’s presence is it will allow for minute and foul protection for three-point weapons Hartman and Zeisloft. Indiana is much better shooting at home compared to on the road as evidenced by their most recent game against the Golden Gophers of Minnesota where they set a school and Big Ten record with 18 three-pointers.

Key #2: Put on the Defensive Pressure

Purdue has won 6 out of 7 games during their surprising turnaround. Their one loss? An ugly 62-58 loss at Minnesota on February 7th. This game is mentioned because Minnesota pressed Purdue incessantly and were rewarded with 23 turnovers. Dealing with defensive pressure, especially a full-court press, has been a struggle for the Boilermakers this year. While Indiana does not press all the time, they do excel at pushing the tempo and pressing at times. Forcing Purdue to speed up and turn the ball over will lead to easy transition baskets and open three-pointers. Do not be surprised if Indiana deploys this strategy at various points in tonight’s game.

Key #3: Troy Williams and James Blackmon Jr.

Simply put, Williams and Blackmon Jr. have got to be factors for the Hoosiers tonight. In the first meeting, they combined to be 8 – 25 from the field with a combined 21 points. These players need to be more efficient and hitting three-pointers for the Hoosiers to feel comfortable tonight. Williams in particular is a match-up nightmare for Big Ten teams for his ability to stretch the floor, but also for his freakish athletic ability. These things were tampered in the first meeting.

Keys to Victory: Purdue Boilermakers

Key #1: Hit Shots and Stay out of Foul Trouble

While this is technically two keys, but they are interchangeable if road victory is to be achieved in the Big Ten. Indiana’s defense is, to be frank, not very good. They are currently ranked 310th overall (out of 351 Division I teams) in points allowed (71.4 allowed per game). Purdue needs to take advantage of this fact and continue to try and drive to the basket. Raphael Davis had a lot of success doing this in the first match-up, but players such as Kendall Stephens (39% from three) and Dakota Mathias (recruited partly for his shooting prowess) need to knock down open jump shots to avoid allowing Indiana to pack in their defense and clog driving lanes.

The foul trouble is more directed at Purdue’s twin towers: A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. Purdue needs these players as essential pieces for every phase of their game plan. Early foul trouble could force the Boilermakers to go small, and that will result in a almost certain defeat.

Key #2: Defense

While Indiana struggles to play defense, Purdue, in conference play, has excelled at it. Only Wisconsin and Nebraska have been better in conference play in opponents points per game than Purdue. Playing solid defense and limiting big Indiana runs will keep Purdue in the game and give them a chance for victory. In the paint, Purdue needs to continue to force teams into shot blocking machine A.J. Hammons. On the perimeter, Purdue needs to force Indiana into contested jump shots and three-pointers. The Boilers are the Big Ten’s leader in field goal percentage defense (38%) and rank in the top four in opponent three-point percentage defense (33.5%). If they are able to keep the game in the 50s and 60s, then they will have a shot. A track meet, transition-oriented game will equal doom for the Boilermakers.

Key #3: Protect Possessions

This leads to the last key. Purdue still struggles with turnovers. As mentioned, their lone loss over the last seven games was to Minnesota in which they coughed up the ball 23 times. In conference games this season, Purdue ranks in the bottom half of the conference in turnover margin and assist to turnover ratio. The Boilermaker guards have got to protect the ball in dealing with potential pressing from the Hoosiers and Purdue’s bigs need to handle potential double and triple teaming from crashing Hoosier defenders in the half court. Limiting turnovers, Indiana offensive rebounds and getting quality shots is a road victory recipe for success.

Overview

Tonight is a very important game in the Big Ten for these in-state rivals. Indiana is looking to avenge an earlier defeat at the hands of the Boilermakers, while Purdue badly needs a quality road victory to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. It is great to see this storied college basketball rivalry back on its feet and packed with late season intensity and meaning. Look for two teams with very different styles that will equal a close, hard fought, strategically interesting match-up.

Next: Bubble Watch: Where Do Xavier and Cincinnati Stand Now?

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Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers Game Preview: In-State Bragging Rights and Big Ten Positioning at Stake in Bloomington

By Bryce Bennett | Feb 19, 2015