Atlantic-10: Who Has The Inside Track For A Tournament Bid?

Have a college basketball fan tell you with a straight face that the Atlantic-10 has been boring this season. There’s absolutely no way that they could.

With parity reigning over the Big 12 and the Big Ten (sans Wisconsin), the A-10 more closely resembles the ACC this year as four teams crowd the top. However, fewer bids are at play as the late-season competition reaches its boiling point. Two bids will likely be awarded between VCU, Davidson, Dayton and Rhode Island barring a team outside of these four winning the conference tournament. As of Wednesday night, they are all tied atop the league at 11-4. Though while the four squads share conference records, their path to an at-large bid varies significantly.

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#22 VCU Rams (21-7, 11-4 A10)
Remaining 3 Games: vs. Dayton, @ Davidson, vs. G. Mason
Current Busting Bracketology: 6 seed

A four-point double overtime loss to crosstown rival Richmond has to hurt some – this is the Spiders’ first sweep of VCU since the 2000-01 season. However it doesn’t threaten VCU’s lock status, especially with the remaining slate. The Rams will face two of their fellow conference leaders in Dayton and Davidson. Losing to both still wouldn’t put them on the bubble, but a 2-1 finish likely cements their status as a higher seed. Though VCU has only gone 4-4 without steal master Briante Weber, the Rams’ non-conference wins over Northern Iowa and Cincinnati will continue to buoy their stock. An 0-3 finish with an early loss in the A-10 tourney would be the only reason for panic.

Dayton Flyers (21-6, 11-4 A10)
Remaining 3 Games: @ VCU, vs. Rhode Island, @ La Salle
Current Busting Bracketology: 8 seed

Speaking of overcoming the loss of significant contributors, has anyone done so more than Dayton? The Flyers are one of the unheralded stories of the season, after losing key players from last year’s Elite Eight squad to graduation and transferring. Furthermore, since the December dismissals of Devon Scott and Jalen Robinson, they have been playing with only seven scholarship players, none of which stand taller than 6’6”. Dayton does have a recent bad loss (at Duquesne) and two looming games against the conference top four. They look good now, but likely need a 2-1 finish to feel good going into the postseason.

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Davidson Wildcats (20-6, 11-4 A10)
Remaining 3 Games: vs. GW, vs. VCU, @ Duquesne
Current Busting Bracketology: First Four Out

The Wildcats’ success in their inaugural season in the Atlantic 10 should not be surprising. Bob McKillop’s team has made the NCAA tournament two out of the past three seasons, both times with less than ten losses. A recent six-game winning streak (with a recent victory at Rhode Island to boot) has put Davidson on the safe side of the bubble. But the reason they haven’t been there until now is a lack of notable wins – their best triumphs are over Dayton and Rhode Island. Winning out and avenging a January loss at VCU would likely lock up an at-large spot (if they avoid a first-round exit in the A-10 tournament). Anything less would give them reason to worry.

Rhode Island Rams (19-7, 11-4 A10)
Remaining 3 Games: @ La Salle, @ Dayton, vs. St. Joe’s
Current Busting Bracketology: Next Four Out

The Rams unquestionably have the most to lose in these last three games. Their best win (75-59 over UMass last week) came just in time to put the Dan Hurley’s team in the tourney conversation. But even though Rhode Island barely gracing the bubble just now, any win further secures that. Two straight road wins would speak volumes about how good this team can be when it matters. However on the flip side a loss would be devastating. For Rhode Island to really sneak into the at-large picture, they will have to go 3-0 and avoid an early exit in the conference tournament.

Next: Yogi Ferrell: Big Ten Player of the Year?