ACC: 3 Questions For This Weekend’s Matchups
Though some of the ACC’s biggest showdowns of the season will occur over the next two weeks, this weekend’s action will undoubtedly show where the potential tourney teams stand. Two elite ACC teams are currently in the running for one seeds, two teams below them look to potentially break into the three seed range, and three bubble teams vie for what likely appears to be one last at-large bid. A win would allow these squads to keep their eye on the prize. A loss in this penultimate weekend of the regular season wouldn’t necessarily be devastating, but would absolutely vitalize winning in the final week and conference tournament.
1. Can Duke and Virginia secure at least a two seed for the ACC?
No, a win this weekend for Duke (vs Syracuse) or Virginia (vs Virginia Tech) would not secure a one seed for either team. Though both units currently sit firmly on the one line in our Busting Bracketology, there are certainly chances for that to change in the final weekend. Each face some remaining challenges (@ UNC for Duke, @ Louisville for UVa) that could knock them off that one seed line. And Duke’s 91-86 overtime survival against the Hokies this past week proves that even bottom-feeders ought not to be written off this late in the game.
Thing is, though it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility for Duke (25-3, 12-3 ACC) or Virginia (26-1, 14-1 ACC) to win out, only one of them can win the ACC Tournament. If Kentucky and Gonzaga continue to roll against in their respective conferences, there will likely be room for only one ACC team up top. Even if both teams stumble down the stretch (either next weekend or during the ACC tourney), the one who advances further in Greensboro will likely be awarded at lest a two seed if both win Saturday. A major collapse involving two losses in the last three games or early in the conference tournament would have to happen to prevent this scenario.
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2. Will Louisville begin to rally?
Though a boorish, 52-51 win at lowly Georgia Tech does not typically constitute a late-season rally, any on-court success was good news for the Louisville Cardinals (22-6, 10-5 ACC). As the horrific saga of former PG Chris Jones continues to unfold, Louisville has to build upon the good vibes from their win over the Yellow Jackets. This weekend they travel to Florida State, where they will have to contain the dynamic Xavier Rathan-Mayes and hope that he doesn’t come close to a repeat performance (30 pts in final 4:38 in 81-77 loss at Miami).
The Cardinals currently are a downward-trending four seed in Busting Bracketology. This trend may change, depending upon their success in the final three games (@ FSU, vs ND, UVa) and how far they can advance in the ACC Tournament. Louisville struggled offensively before Jones’ departure and is now short-handed- therefore the draw they get in Greensboro will likely impact the potential of their tourney stock. They can begin to trend upwards- it starts with the play of guards Quentin Snider and Shaqquan Aaron– true freshman thrust into the spotlight after Jones’ dismissal. They will need to help facilitate on offense as well as play strong on-ball defense in Pitino’s pressing schemes.
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3. Will NC State continue to lead the bubble charge?
It’s no secret that the NC State Wolfpack are a team on the rise in the past two weeks. Their big wins continue to headline a burgeoning resume- along with top-ten victories over Duke and Louisville, the Pack can now tack on a victory over UNC in Chapel Hill. Busting Bracketology currently has them as an upward moving nine-seed and currently out of First Four consideration. To maintain their status, NC State (17-11, 8-7 ACC) needs to take of business against Boston College on Saturday. They have a real opportunity to roll into the conference tournament with final week match-ups at Clemson and at home against Syracuse.
Both Pitt (19-10, 8-7 ACC) and Miami (18-10, 8-7 ACC) remain definitively behind NC State, though not by a whole lot. The Panthers and Hurricanes both notched tough home wins this week to remain in contention for an at-large bid (both Miami and Pitt are in the first and next four out, respectively). Though Miami will take bubble watch center stage this weekend at Carolina, what is certain is that these three teams will likely be fighting over one solitary at-large bid.
Other than this contest, neither of three ACC bubble teams has another ranked team on the schedule, so good resume-boosting opportunities outside of the ACC tournament are disappearing. Furthermore, Miami and Pitt will meet in the Peterson Events Center next Wednesday for what looks like to be a de facto at-large elimination game. For it to come to that, however, the Hurricanes and Panthers (who will be at Wake) need big road wins this Saturday.