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College Basketball: Most Important Remaining Bracket Buster Games

By Chris Godfrey

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In the past decade or so, ESPN has a stolen a few pages from professional wrestling in terms of how they present their college basketball product. WWE Chairman Vince McMahon uses cleverly named pay-per-view titles to ramp up the importance of the buildup events that lead to true spectacles such as Wrestlemania. ESPN has adopted the practice of creating several branded events that take place during the regular season. There’s the Tip-Off Marathon to start the season (one of the most brilliant ideas ever), Feast Week during Thanksgiving, and Holiday Hoops at Christmas time. The latter stages of the season feature the very practically named Rivalry Week, and the extremely vague and awkwardly named JUDGEMENT WEEK (which could also be the name of a professional wrestling event).

One of ESPN’s better gimmicks faded into oblivion after 11 years of existence after the 2012-2013. Bracket Busters was a two-day showcase event that pitted the nation’s best mid-major teams against each other, allowing some of them to tally an RPI-friendly win late in the season and increase their chances at earning an NCAA at-large bid. It probably also has a lot to do with how this site got its name (I can’t comment on the origins of the Yeti mascot).

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VCU’s 2011 Final Four team participated in the event, beating Wichita State and notching a key win that was likely the deciding factor in the selection committee’s choice to controversially include them in the field later that year. VCU’s RPI at the time of their Bracket Buster showdown was 65 (not good). The Shockers came into that meeting with an RPI of 49 (pretty good), and bounced back after the loss to finish the season in the top 50.

Yes, ESPN essentially created the framework that allowed us to see one of the greatest tournament runs of all-time (the only positive that has ever came from the “First Four” was VCU’s journey to the Final Four). The event exists no longer, but the concept still remains relevant. With the final week of the regular season bearing down on us, some bubble teams are in desperate need of notching one more marquee win to either put them in the field or just put them in the conversation. BYU cashed in on one of the biggest Bracket Buster opportunities of the season when they beat Gonzaga this past Saturday. The Cougs went from tournament outsider to intriguing bubble team by toppling a potential top seed.

These teams will have a similar opportunity to take a major step forward in the eyes of the selection committee before teams start throwing everything but tridents at each other during the conference tournaments.

March 2nd – Baylor at Texas

The Longhorns are the bubble team that no one realizes is on the bubble. In fact, Texas is sitting seven spots away from a tourney bid according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. A murderers row of four straight ranked opponents (OU, ISU, WVU, KU) has the Horns on the ropes. A winning conference record is out of play, but a win against Baylor (as well as taking care of business against K-State) could at least put Texas in a position to get a bid by pulling off two more wins during the Big 12 Tournament.

March 3rd – Rhode Island at Dayton

The Flyers are comfortably in the field, and have seemingly dashed my hopes that they would play a home game in the First Four, but Rhode Island has hit a place of desperation. The Rams have a good record both overall and in conference, but their profile contains zero RPI top 50 wins and two RPI sub-100 losses. Beating Dayton puts the committee on notice, but it will only be the beginning of a tough road. The Rams probably need this game, and a run to the finals of the A-10 tournament to be seriously considered for an at-large bid.

March 4th – Purdue at Michigan State

The Boilermakers are one of Lunardi’s last teams in the field, with only BYU buffering Purdue from the cut line. A road win in East Lansing would give Purdue much needed breathing room as they look to cap off their impressive run through the Big Ten. Matt Painter’s squad should be looking at this game as their ticket out of the First Four and into the big bracket.

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    • March 4th – Cincinnati at Tulsa

    It’s amazing that these two teams are still sweating it out, but Cincinnati lost major momentum by losing to Xavier two weeks ago and Tulsa has zero top-50 wins against teams not named Temple. Both of these teams are currently in the field, but both sit as 11-seeds. Tulsa is in the field as the conference leader in the American. It’s unclear if Lunardi would have included them as an-at large (I doubt it). This is probably the most bubble-relevant game on the schedule, as both teams are so close to the cut line. I couldn’t tell you who needs the game more.

    March 5th – VCU at Davidson

    Davidson has been an interesting case over the past month. They have regularly sauntered in and out of everyone’s bracket projections, usually at no great fault of their own. They have won 7 straight games since a pair of head scratching losses to St. Joe’s and St. Bonaventure. With the recent surge, the Wildcats sit atop the A-10 with Rhode Island (a team the Wildcats recently eeked past by a single point in their only meeting). Still, Lunardi has them out of the field as the first team out. Beating VCU gives Bob McKillop’s team a win that moves the needle on their at-large candidacy and all but assures them a share of the conference championship and the top-seed in the A-10 Tournament.

    March 7th – LSU at Arkansas

    The Tigers are probably in the field, but a win over the Hogs at Bud Walton will give them reason to relax on Selection Sunday. LSU’s midweek game with Tennessee is tricky, and if the Tigers lose, the Arkansas game becomes doubly important. The only scenario that puts the Tigers on the bubble is finishing the season on a three-game skid with losses against Tennessee, Arkansas, and their first round opponent in the SEC Tournament.

    March 7th – Oklahoma State at West Virginia

    It seems like the Cowboys were ranked not too long ago (it’s because they were), but the Big 12 has been harsh to it’s bubble teams as of late. The Cowboys would be comfortably in the field if not for two losses against the conference’s bottom feeders (Texas Tech & TCU), but instead of a 9-7 conference record in the most rugged conference in America, the Pokes will have to pull off a legitimate upset in Morgantown to end the season with a .500 conference record. There’s plenty of depth to the Cowboys’ profile, but the selection committee has frowned on sub .500 conference records in the past (some pundits have lobbied for teams under .500 in their conference to be excluded from at-large consideration). In the eyes of some, the Pokes need this win.

    March 7th – UConn at Temple

    A few weeks ago, I wrote that UConn’s at large candidacy was dead in the water. That’s probably still true despite their current three-game winning streak that includes a win over SMU, but if the Huskies win out until the American Athletic Conference’s championship game, the selection committee will have to at least take a look at the defending champs. The Huskies didn’t do much out of conference besides beating Dayton (they won at Florida, but the wheels have since fallen off in Gainesville), but their quality wins inside the American are starting to add up. Sitting at 21-12 on Selection Sunday after losing in the conference championship wouldn’t be an awful place to be.

    March 7th – Tulsa at SMU

    Tulsa could very well be playing for a share or an outright conference title in this season finale. They’ll also be attempting to fight their way off the tournament bubble. The Golden Canes share the same conundrum as Rhode Island and Davidson in the A-10, leading the double life of a confident conference leader and a uncertain team on the bubble. Of the three teams trapped in this awkward bit of limbo, Tulsa is the only team that could very well lose all of their remaining games before Selection Sunday (note that they are the only team that was mentioned in this piece twice). Tulsa has had a magical run since their season-opening loss to Oral Roberts (good gosh, they might regret that one), but their record is heavy on quantity and light on quality. Two thirds of the Tulsa win total has come against the teams south of 150 in the RPI. Beating SMU is a chance to add a few notches to their profile — a RPI top 30 win and a regular season conference title.

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