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NCAA Tournament: Major Implications From Tuesday’s Games

By Beaumont Rand

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With only one contest remaining and at-large bids at a premium, bubble teams in action on Tuesday night had little room for error. Three games featuring five bubble teams (sorry Clemson) helped clarify a heavily shifting bubble picture and set up a crucial final weekend.

Iowa 77, Indiana 63

This score says it all- IU’s collapse has landed them dropped them to last-four-in status, Tom Crean squarely on the hot seat, and Hoosier fans in a furor. But honestly, before the season did anyone expect Indiana to be anywhere else but right here? Most people believed that, despite their skilled backcourt of Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr., a severe lack Big Ten size would make a return to the NCAA tournament difficult. After Tuesday night’s disaster, IU (19-11, 9-8 B1G) stares down a must-win scenario Saturday against Michigan State to save their dwindling at-large hopes.

Iowa (20-10, 11-6 B1G), on the other hand, now owns fourth in the Big Ten until the Spartans take on Purdue Wednesday. The Hawkeyes have won their last five match-ups and are comfortably in as an 8-seed in Busting Bracketology. Even a home loss to Northwestern on Saturday would knock them from their comfortable perch back on the bubble. Fran McCaffery’s club can’t completely rest easy (an 0-2 finish would present some reason to worry), but Wednesday’s road win puts them solidly and safely in.

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Dayton 75, Rhode Island 59

The Flyers (23-6, 13-4 A-10) pulled away from the Rams in the second half of this game, and from the rest of the Atlantic 10 in the second half of conference play. Dayton, with only seven scholarship players and none above 6-7, has won seven of their last nine to claim the A-10 lead by a half game over Davidson. Last weekend’s win at VCU has opened the eyes of the college basketball world to what could be the best coaching job of the season. Archie Miller’s team may not have the horses for another Elite Eight run, but they certainly have enough to find themselves firmly in the field of 68.

For Rhode Island (20-8, 12-5 A-10), this likely bursts their at-large bubble and defers their Big Dance hopes to winning the A-10 tourney in Brooklyn. They have the worst resume of the A-10’s top four (Dayton, VCU, Davidson, Rhode Island) with their strongest win over a 17-12 UMass team. These circumstances certainly made this game against the Flyers a must-win. Barring a run through the conference tournament, Dan Hurley’s Rams will likely not return to the Dance for the first time since 1999.

NC State 66, Clemson 61

The Wolfpack (18-12, 9-8 ACC) have got to be the nation’s most volatile, unpredictable bubble team. With a resume containing a home win over Duke at home and road wins at Louisville and UNC, no teams outside of the top three have a stronger trio of victories. Yet NC State, who currently sits on the nine/ten seed line, followed up their win in Chapel Hill with a hideous double-digit loss at Boston College. Wednesday night’s 66-61 squeaker over Clemson (16-13, 8-9 ACC) certainly doesn’t erase that. Even though Littlejohn Coliseum is a tough place to play and the Tigers really can defend, Pack fans have every right to be uneasy heading into a season ending clash with Syracuse in Raleigh.

Still, NC State really has the balance to pull some upsets in the tournament. Cat Baber, Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner are a formidable frontcourt that can score, defend and handle pressure- all skills that are especially valuable in the Big Dance. Furthermore they have enough size to hold their own on the boards against bigger teams not named Kentucky. Ultimately much will depend upon which Wolfpack shows up. Their play in the ACC tournament ought to clarify a picture that has been muddled all season.

Next: Important Remaining Bracket Buster Games

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