Big Ten Tournament 2015: Last Chance to Dance for Indiana, Illinois
The field and schedule are set for the 2015 Big Ten Tournament this week. Will Frank Kaminsky and the Wisconsin Badgers mow through the field, or will a bubble team fight their way into an auto-NCAA Tournament Bid?
As Wednesday brings the first round of the 2015 Big Ten Tournament, the drama is not far behind as the fate of at least three schools and one head coach hangs in the balance of this week’s action.
Calling this a down season for the perennially tough Big Ten would be a bit of an understatement, but it would also fail to do justice in highlighting the commanding play of #5 Wisconsin and 2015 Wooden Award finalist Frank Kaminsky, along with the stellar debut of the #10 Maryland Terrapins and their one-two combo of Melo Trimble and Dez Wells.
As one and two seeds, they’re certainly the teams to beat, but their NCAA fortunes are already set in stone. Let’s have a look at the rest of the field and talk about the implications of the early rounds on Wednesday and Thursday, and then throw out hot takes with the later rounds.
First Round: Abandon Hope All Ye Who Play Here
Wednesday action at the tournament will be tepid at best as 16-15 Penn State tips off against 13-17 Nebraska at 3:30pm CT. This game is pretty much a battle of who gets to go back home first, as neither team have a tournament appearance in their future, unless the CBI counts. This one will be of interest only to parents and girlfriends. The winner gets to be slaughtered by a surging Iowa team who wants to make sure their ticket to the dance is firmly punched. (ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently has the Hawkeyes seeded seventh.)
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Later in the day, 17-14 Minnesota faces off against the other, far less successful Big Ten newcomer, 10-21 Rutgers, who at this point just wants the bleeding to stop. With their Big Ten record at a disappointing 6-12, the Golden Gophers can forget about any chance of an NCAA tournament berth, but bludgeoning the hapless Scarlet Knights could present a solid argument for an NIT invitation, which could serve as an opportunity to salvage an underacheving season.
Second Round: Requiem for a Program (or Two)
The tournament gets into full swing on Thursday with four games, each with tournament implications as Illinois and Indiana find themselves desperate to claw their way back onto a bubble they both managed to slip from in recent days.
At 11am CT, 19-12 Illinois faces 15-15 Michigan in early action. With Saturday’s 63-58 loss to Purdue severely damaging their hopes, Illinois has to beat a reeling Wolverines team to even consider themselves back in the hunt for a tournament bid. For their part, the Wolverines hope to save some face and at least go down swinging in a game that could go either way, not that it matters much as the winner faces Wisconsin.
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The winner of Nebraska/Penn State meets 21-10 Iowa at 1pm CT in a game that will likely be as ugly to watch as it is to play. Iowa has been hot as of late, rattling off commanding wins last week against Northwestern and Indiana behind the prowess of leading scorer Aaron White. The Hawkeyes should have little trouble advancing to the quarterfinals against Purdue.
Although the game starts at 5:30 CT, for beleaguered Indiana head coach Tom Crean, it may as well be high noon. The 19-12 Hoosiers play for their tournament lives and their coach’s job against 15-16 Northwestern in a game that will almost certainly determine Crean’s fate.
Crean is 4-8 against the Wildcats in his seven seasons at Indiana, with the latest loss two weeks ago at Northwestern. The Hoosiers have been in freefall behind the sluggish play of freshman James Blackmon, Jr. and a non-existent defense. This is a must-win for the Hoosiers, but so were the losses against Iowa and Michigan State. This one could go either way.
The second day of the tournament rounds out with 22-9 Ohio State facing the winner of Minnesota/Rutgers. Despite Sunday’s blowout loss to Wisconsin, the Buckeyes still have more than enough left in the tank to take out either Minnesota or Rutgers (especially Rutgers, I mean come on, have you seen them play?). The winner here faces an iffy Michigan State team and the clearest path to the championship game.
Quarterfinals: Someone Wake Up Wisconsin, They Have Teams to Beat
Kaminsky and the 28-3 Badgers kick off Quarterfinals action at 11am CT Friday against the winner of Illinois/Michigan. For Wisconsin, it’s a good opportunity to get their killin’ done before noon, but in the case that Illinois beats Michigan, a miracle win against the Badgers, improbable though it may be, would be a one-way ticket right into the NCAA tournament, leapfrogging Indiana in the process. It’s nice to dream.
20-11 Purdue awaits the winner of Nebraska/Penn State vs. Iowa, a/k/a Iowa at 1:30pm CT. Currently, Lunardi has Purdue as an 11 seed, so this game is important for the Boilers, as a loss could throw their tournament hopes into jeopardy. For Iowa, this isn’t nearly as much of a must-win game, but no one in Iowa City wants to even think about what a loss here could do to the Hawkeyes. This could be the most enjoyable game of the tournament.
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While the previous game might be the most enjoyable, the 5:30pm CT game featuring 26-5 Maryland against the winner of Indiana/Northwestern could be the most interesting. If Indiana can get past Northwestern, it would mean facing a Terrapins squad the Hoosiers match up particularly well with. Indiana beat the Terps by 19 in their first meeting in Bloomington, and only lost by two on a last-second miss by Yogi Ferrell in College Park.
While Indiana had a good crowd at Maryland, the Big Ten Tournament would be a virtual home game for the Hoosiers. Despite their tepid play as of late, if they find a way to beat Northwestern, Maryland is in trouble in a game that’s practically meaningless to them, but not Indiana.
The quarterfinals close with 21-10 Michigan State taking on (most likely) Ohio State. Look for this game to be wildly competitive as both teams would like to make a statement, and maybe even a run at Maryland as the winner of this game could easily end up in the championship game. All things being equal, right now Michigan State looks to have the advantage here.
Semifinals & Championship: There Will Be Blood (Or Is That Ketchup?)
Saturday and Sunday at the tournament won’t bring much in the way of surprise as Wisconsin will demolish whoever they face (likely Iowa) as they move on to the Championship game where they will meet Michigan State because no matter how good Maryland is (or maaaaaaaaaybe Indiana), March belongs to Izzo.
Having said that, Wisconsin will win the Big Ten Tournament, beating the Spartans in the Championship game by 13 and once again forcing everyone involved to wonder why it is there’s a tournament in the first place. Oh, that’s right, so it can move to the east coast in 2017.
God bless us, every one. (Except Indiana and Illinois, they’re screwed this season.)