2015 NCAA Tournament: South Region Friday Preview

Out of all the 2015 NCAA tournament’s South region teams, one might believe Duke would have the largest target on their backs and thus have the most to lose out all the teams in this bracket.

This year that is not the case.

Rather, Gonzaga – at least until the Elite Eight- has the most to lose in terms of perception. Beyond their first round match-up with North Dakota St. (who did a little of their own dancing last year)- the Zags could be facing some of their first top-30 Kenpom competition in three months. Essentially, the main focus of the South Region will not be whether Duke can set up a match-up with Kentucky, but whether Gonzaga can avoid their all-to-familiar Round of 32/Sweet Sixteen flameout.

Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC

7:10 PM EST, (1) Duke vs. (16) Robert Morris

By Duke standards, it has been a minute since they last reached the Final Four. Two notorious first round flameouts- Lehigh in 2012 and Mercer last year- accent a string of disappointing postseason campaigns since their last title in 2010. Having a number-one seed is nothing new to Duke since winning the title in 2010. They certainly will feel compelled to defend it this season to avoid any other early round disappointments.

In all reality, Robert Morris will likely have no answer for Jahlil Okafor. Duke ought to roll in a game just down the road. The thing to watch for Blue Devils fans is how well Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones can shoot. They could be matched up with a strong, slow-it-down defensive team in San Diego State in the next round, so a good shooting performance from the backcourt should be a good sign moving forward. Even if the weight of previous second round losses will hang over the Blue Devils, they should show their readiness for a deep run after an early ACC tournament exit.

9:40 PM EST, (8) San Diego St. vs. (9) St. John’s

This is as interesting of an 8-9 game as any. San Diego State ranks 4th in Kenpom defensive efficiency, and conversely 171st in the same offensive category. St. John’s appeared to end the season strong before back-to-back losses to Villanova and Providence. Each of these teams has exhibited night-and-day qualities- when you think they are dominating, they quickly turn around to struggle. The main question will be whether the Aztecs can slow down the game enough to keep it within reach of their at-times anemic offense.

The suspension of St. John’s center Chris Obekpa obviously has an effect on not just the Red Storm’s game, but their seeding as well. If D’Angelo Harrison can score the Johnnies will most certainly be in it. This one will likely be a first-one-who-gets-to-5o affair as the Red Storm won’t likely be able to deter San Diego State’s deliberate pace. They might have enough athleticism, though, to get into the lane and at least draw enough fouls to reach that point quota.

KeyArena, Seattle, WA

7:20 PM EST, (7) Iowa vs. (10) Davidson

Bob McKillop’s squad just might be the surprise of the season. Picked to finish near the bottom of the A-10, Davidson has rose to the occasion and is considered by many to be a dangerous threat in this tournament. But Iowa also has been overlooked most of the season- just when you think they’re ready to seize position in the top 25, the Hawkeyes drop one to Northwestern. Both teams seem to possess that element of surprise that is oh-so-valuable in March that could allow them to sneak up on perennial early-exit Gonzaga.

But first, of course, one has to win this second round game. Davidson’s guards – Tyler Kalinoski, Jack Gibbs and Brian Sullivan – are as good as any as Bob McKillop has had not named Stephen Curry. They can shoot, pass and defend as well as expected from a Davidson guard. Aaron White and Iowa might have more athleticism, but Davidson has more intangibles to snag a third round birth and the possibility of playing in the second weekend.

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Prediction: Davidson 70, Iowa 63

9:50 PM EST, (2) Gonzaga vs. (15) North Dakota St.

Gonzaga fans have to to be relieved they are not on the 3-14 time. A team best known in March for early losses has to feel fortunate to avoid the seed paring that seems the most caustic this year. Even more, North Dakota St. did some dancing of their own last year, so this program is used to being an underdog. Still, this is truly Mark Few’s best team at Gonzaga- their shooting ability, size and balance make them a tough matchup for any top team, let alone mid-major.

The Bison will have a tall task in front of them- this is no 5-15 matchup against Oklahoma. They will have to slow down the scoring barrage expected from Kyle Wiltjer and company to hang in there. The Zags will be close to home and comfortable in Seattle. This is a team focused and prepared for a deep run into March. They Zags will want to take on the traditional powers- their road to facing the Dukes and Kentuckys begins with the Bison Friday night.

Prediction: Gonzaga 82, North Dakota St. 60

Next: NCAA: Who The Heck Are The UAB Blazers?

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