2015 NCAA Tournament: South Region Sunday Preview

The South region’s top two seeds – Duke and Gonzaga – eye an Sweet 16 birth to exorcise recent first-weekend troubles. Duke will matchup with one of the stronger defenses in the country in San Diego State with aspirations to establish more of an up-and-down pace. Gonzaga will clash with Iowa, who surprisingly send Davidson home after a 3o-point stomping of the Wildcats. Both teams’ Final Four hopes will be put to the test against teams who appear to be their stylistic contrasts.

Charlotte, NC

2:40 PM ET, (1) Duke vs. (8) San Diego St.

San Diego State’s limitations are well known at this point. A fourth-ranked Kenpom defense coupled with an offense ranked 149th in efficiency establish quite the Jekyll-and-Hyde identity. Still, Steve Fisher’s Aztecs will be a tough out – this team is coming off a Sweet 16 berth and obviously knows how to get there. Of course, Duke needs no introductions. Jahlil Okafor provides a clear size advantage for the Blue Devils over the smaller Aztecs. The main question will be whether Duke’s guards will be able to shoot their way past San Diego State’s stingy defense.

Mike Krzyzewski and Steve Fisher do have a history – the 1992 championship class between Christian Laettner, Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley against the Fab Five come to mind (though the run is vacated on Michigan’s side). Their battles have proven to be compelling, and in an always-tough 1-8 matchup, this one should live up to the billing. Expect San Diego State’s deliberate pacing to keep this game close- whoever reaches the 55-60 range first will likely advance.

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Prediction: Duke 61, San Diego State 56

Seattle, WA

7:10 PM ET, (2) Gonzaga vs. (7) Iowa

Honestly, most of the nation is surprised the Hawkeyes are in this game. A trendy pick to fall to 10-seed Davidson, Iowa emphatically rebuked that narrative with a thunderous 83-52 win over the Wildcats. Now Aaron White and company will have their hands full with the Zags who present matchup problems with just about anybody not named Kentucky. Gonzaga is big, sees the court well, and just about all of the players in their rotation can shoot. This is going to be an uphill battle for the Hawkeyes.

If Gonzaga is a bit off, ghosts of third round past could begin to haunt them and make this a close game. This is a scenario the Zags most certainly want to avoid. The key will be getting Kyle Wiltjer and Kevin Pangos open shots and hope they are consistent as usual. Iowa will want to make this game physical and rebound- getting up and down against Gonzaga will be key to taking them out of their silky smooth offensive rhythm. Look for Iowa to hang close until halftime, when the Zags get hot and shoot their way out of the troublesome Round of 32 and into the Regional Semifinals.

Prediction: Gonzaga 81, Iowa 67

Next: Three Thoughts on Kentucky over Cincinnati

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