NCAA Tournament: South Region Sweet 16 Preview
By Alex Miller
Can Utah upset Duke?
The Utes have had an incredible season, making it back to the sweet sixteen for the first time in 10 years. Utah’s success this year starts on the defensive side of the ball where they’ve limited opponents to 42.9% eFG – good for 5th best in the country. They have a solid post presence in freshman big Jakob Poeltl and are led by All-American point guard Delon Wright.
You might be thinking, well San Diego State has a better defensive efficiency than Utah and Duke treated them to a 20-point blowout last weekend, so why should they be on upset alert? While the Aztecs might be a better defensive team, they are a very poor shooting team with an eFG% of 46.6, good for 276th in the country. San Diego State finished only 2-13 from beyond the arc, and misses on 3 point attempts usually lead to long rebounds which can sometime allow the opposition to get out in transition and score easy buckets – something Duke excels at. Utah boasts the 10th best effective FG% in the country and shoots over 40% from beyond the arc. The Blue Devils wont be able to get out in transition nearly as often this time around.
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Can Utah slow down Duke in the half court? Wright and Brandon Taylor are good enough defenders to limit Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones, but I worry about their ability to defend Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor. Jordan Loveridge and Poeltl are not good enough defenders to stop either of them.
One of the reasons Utah has made it this far has been Poeltl’s post play on offense. Poeltl has averaged 15 points on a combined 12-13 from the field in the tournament thus far and I think that continues as Okafor struggles defensively. But ultimately, Duke’s rebounding ability and the offense of Winslow and Okafor will be too much for the Utes.
Duke wins 68-65.
Does UCLA have a chance vs. Gonzaga?
The Bruins and Bulldogs face of in a rematch of December’s game at Pauley Pavillion won by Gonzaga 87-74. I don’t think the Bruins have enough defense to slow down the three-point shooting of Kevin Pangos, Kyle Wiltjer, or Gary Bell. UCLA is allowing their opponents to shoot 36.1% from beyond the arc this season, good for 25th in the country while Gonzaga hits threes at a clip of 41% – good enough for 3rd best. Unless the Zags are having an off-night shooting wise, UCLA will not be able to slow them down.
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Can they keep pace on the other side of the ball? Maybe. Bryce Alford has been red hot from beyond the arc in the NCAA tournament, hitting 12 of 16 shots, but will he be able to keep it going? Norman Powell and Kevon Looney also shoot the three at a respectable clip, and will be needed in this match-up because Gonzaga’s three-point defense, while somewhat respectable, is nowhere near as good as their post defense. Tony Parker, who scored a career high 28 points in the Bruins win over UAB last weekend, will need a repeat performance if UCLA hopes to survive and advance. Ultimately, I think the post presence of Gonzaga’s bigs Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis will be too much for Parker to score on, and the shooting ability of the Zags will reign supreme. In a game that probably won’t be as legendary as their last NCAA Tournament meeting,
Gonzaga wins 79-68.