National Championship Preview: Wisconsin vs. Duke

Back in December, Duke traveled to Madison and walked away with an 80-70 victory over Wisconsin. The Blue Devils played nothing short of amazing offensively, shooting 65% from the floor and 58% from three-point range. Wisconsin couldn’t contain guards Tyus Jones (22 points on 7-11 shooting), Quinn Cook (13 points on 4-5 shooting) and Rasheed Sulaimon (14 points on 5-8 shooting). The Badgers played well offensively, but found themselves unable to keep up with Duke’s hot shooting and couldn’t get key stops down the stretch.

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Will Monday night’s Championship game play out differently? Both teams are playing their best basketball of the season, but what’s the difference from then till now? For Starters, Sulaimon is no longer a member of Duke’s basketball team, as he was kicked off due to a sexual assault allegation. In his absence, Grayson Allen become more of a force off the bench. The freshman and McDonalds All-American scored 9 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in Duke’s 81-61 victory over Michigan State on Saturday including a ferocious dunk. He hasn’t fully replaced Sulaimon but does give the Blue Devils an option off the bench–something they’ve desperately needed.

Where Duke has really improved is on the defensive side of the ball. They haven’t changed their defensive scheme, but they’re more physical, more active defensively, and playing like a cohesive unit. Justise Winslow has really upped his game from a defensive standpoint becoming a lock down defender at the 4. (Side note, with Winslow’s athleticism, slashing ability, and shooting, I think he could be a top 5 pick and if he were taller than 6’6″ could be in the running for the top pick.) Despite the defensive improvement by Duke, there is no one who can slow down Wisconsin’s offense right now.

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The Badgers are on a remarkable run offensively. A few months ago I wrote about just how good this Badger offense was playing. At the time, Wisconsin had an offensive efficiency of 125.2 which would have been the best in the history of Kenpom since he began tracking the statistic back in 2002. Flash-forward to today and their offensive efficiency is is at an eye-popping 128.5. Simply incredible, and far and a way the best offense since since the inception of Kenpom and perhaps, the best offense in the history of college basketball.

They went up against Kentucky’s defense–one of the best we’ve seen in the past 20 years–and dropped 1.25 points per possession on them. Part of the reason for the massive increase in offensive efficiency has been the improvement of Sam Dekker. The junior forward may have played himself into the NBA lottery this past month after all is said and done.

Looking back at his early season performance, Dekker was hobbled by an ankle injury he suffered before the beginning of the season and even admitted he came back too soon. It effected his performance vs Duke in December where he shot only 2-5 from the floor and scored just 5 points. Look for a much more aggressive Dekker tonight.

Nigel Hayes might be the difference. The sophomore forward was limited in the first meeting after picking up 4 fouls. He’ll be a much bigger factor tonight as well.

Wisconsin won’t double Jahlil Okafor in the post and will instead try to shut down Duke’s other offensive options using defensive switch after switch. Naismith Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky is a good defender, but not a great one, and if he can limit Okafor one-on-one to an extent, the Badgers will have an excellent chance to pull this one out.

In the first match-up, Kaminsky had multiple mismatches in the post but Duke did a great job of denying entry passes. That changes this time. Wisconsin has been masterful at finding mismatches and exploiting them recently, and it’s for that reason I like them to win tonight despite their defensive issues. No one has won a title that wasn’t in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, but then again, no one has had an offense quite like this, either.

Badgers win the rematch in a high scoring affair, 76-73.

Next: Final Four Thoughts and Analysis

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