2015 NBA Draft: Notes and Observations on Lottery Selections

By Chris Godfrey | Jun 3, 2015

The 2015 NBA Draft is less than a month away, and the rumor mills surrounding each pick are churning at their fastest pace as the date quickly approaches. With yours truly on a leave of absence, we knocked the dust off of our former editor Jacob Rude in order for him to contribute a second NBA mock draft (which was impeccably done). Now that I’m back (in a limited capacity), allow me to get my feet wet again by dropping a few bullets on the draft lottery, some potential trades, and which players are trending in opposite directions as we near the home stretch of workouts and evaluation processes.

More from NBA Draft News

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but there’s no amount of money that can convince me that the Knicks wouldn’t have the number one pick in this draft if David Stern was still commissioner. The cookie seemed to always crumble in favor of big market teams during his regime. I know that last implication was preposterous, but I’m definitely not the only person who thought this after seeing the Knicks fall to the fourth spot in an Adam Silver-era lottery.

Much talk will be made about the Okafor/Towns debate at the top of the draft. In reality, there isn’t much of a debate. Both players are relative equals despite the best efforts of the other to create separation. The deciding factor is versatility. Towns is the only option that provides that. The T-Wolves already have a center, and Towns is the only option that could reasonably spend a few seasons as a power forward. For that reason, he’ll be the number one pick. The Lakers should (and will) gladly take Okafor, and the 76ers have not been shy about their satisfaction concerning the prospect of D’Angelo Russell replacing Michael Carter-Williams as their point guard of the future.

Immediately after the lottery, I proclaimed on social media that the Knicks should be comfortable with their position. The front office didn’t really have a big choice to make. In my eyes, the top four players in this draft have always been clear (Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Russell in whatever order you like). However, the Knicks are apparently intrigued by Justise Winslow as an option with their fourth selection. I assumed that Mudiay would be an obvious selection for the team, but Phil Jackson has always won without a big time point guard. The Triangle allows him to get creative with this pick. It’s a risky selection for President Phil, because Mudiay has the look of an impact contributor, while Winslow could take a bit longer to hit his top stride. This will be the only pick that Jackson will be able to make during his honeymoon stage with the team, so if he wants to be daring, this is the time to do it.

There’s another thought that should accompany the Knicks possibly going with Winslow. Due to his very specific skill set, Winslow can only play small forward. Unless the organization is willing to make a long term commitment to playing Carmelo Anthony as a small ball power forward (not likely), that means there could be truth to the dastardly (and completely unfounded) rumor that Melo could be headed to LA in a trade. This would team Melo with Kobe during the Mamba’s swan song season, and possibly make the Lakers halfway relevant next year depending on how other free agency chips were to fall (the world is staring directly at you, LaMarcus Aldridge). That supposed deal would send Julius Randle and the Lakers’ number two selection (likely Okafor) to the Knicks. Doesn’t a frontcourt of Winslow, Randle, and Okafor sound exponentially more promising than anything the Knicks can manage with Melo? That trade would NEVER happen…but doesn’t it make a little bit of sense?

Willie Cauley-Stein is the lottery’s most polarizing prospect. He’s projected as high as fourth overall in some mock drafts and as low as the teens in others. Neither of those extremes seem plausible, but I would bet on him landing closer to four rather than him free-falling out of the lottery. Cauley-Stein doesn’t have an offensive skill set, but DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler have proven that this shouldn’t stop him from finding ways to contribute as a pick and roll finisher and garbage scorer at the next level. I like the potential of a Cousins and Cauley-Stein front line in Sacramento, but that organization has made a habit of making as little sense as possible in the last few seasons. However, there is talk out there that they may be prone to make a good decision this time around.

Two international prospects are expected to be selected in this year’s lottery. Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis are currently playing hot potato with the distinction of being the best foreign prospect in this year’s class. While Hezonja could go as high as five (Orlando), Porzingis, who is from Latvia, was the first of the two to be mentioned as a possible target for the Knicks at the fourth spot (although this is incredibly unlikely). It’s worth mentioning that Porzingis is actually interested in playing in New York, which is more than what can be said for most of last year’s opening night roster. Porzingis is more likely to fall into the five through nine range with Hezonja coming into play at the tail end. Hezonja will be a strong option for Denver when they pick seventh, but it’s possible that the young Croatian could fall into Charlotte’s lap at nine. Hezonja is a great fit for all three of the teams picking in those spots (Denver, Detroit, and Charlotte respectively), which means it’s hard to see him sliding out of the top ten. Miami would be thrilled to get their hands on him at the ten spot.

Frank Kaminsky hasn’t made much of a peep during the combine process. He has measured up well, he tested well, and he played well during workouts. He hasn’t shown us anything transcendent. It’s been more of the same. Fortunately, it’s a formula that led Frank the Tank to be the best player in college basketball last season. Now that consistency has entrenched him into lottery status. Kaminsky doesn’t have the star potential that other lottery prospects offer, but he will bring a developed offensive skill set that will immediately help his future team. He can shoot from the outside, take opponents off the dribble, and post up using deceptive moves and quick footwork. That type of offensive package being associated with an incoming big man is rare, and thus, very valuable. The homer in me is hoping that my Pistons bypass the urge to take an international prospect (never forget Darko) and roll their dice with Kaminsky at eight. I believe he will be remembered within this class as one of the players who carves out a long pro career.

The list of 15 to 20 names of potential lottery-level draft prospects seen little alteration. Since the end of the NCAA Tournament, most of the prospects we’ve seen have been exactly who we thought they were (special thanks to Denny Green and his underachieving football teams). However, one player has seen his stock skyrocket from second round pick to guaranteed lottery selection. That player is Cameron Payne, the high scoring point guard from Murray State who has dazzled scouts with his shot-making ability. It’s likely that Payne only graded out as an early second round pick due to concerns about the quality of his competition. However, Payne showed little drop-off during his workouts, even managing to make a few solid prospects look similar to the Ohio Valley Conference schmucks he faced during the season. He’s graduated from being a popular sleeper pick to reportedly having a guarantee that he will be drafted by the Thunder if he is available when they select at #14. The Indiana Pacers are also considering taking Payne with their pick at #11. If only Payne played on a Top 25 team that won it’s conference. Then he could have played in the NCAA Tournament, and we would have known about him sooner. Wait…Murray State WAS ranked in the top 25? They went 16-0 in their conference? They still got snubbed? I hate the NCAA.

Myles Turner is an intriguing prospect because he’s the only lottery selection that has a chance to tumble out of the lottery and into the latter part of the first round. Turner could go as high as eighth if Detroit wants to go big and Porzingis and/or Kaminsky is off the board. The Heat could also use a big man, and the Pacers see Turner as a frontcourt player that they can allow them to move Roy Hibbert‘s contract without a significant drop off in production. After Indiana, projecting Turner’s landing spot becomes tricky. The next batch of teams picking after the Pacers all have glaring needs, and Turner doesn’t seem to fill them. If Turner doesn’t go to Indy, he could be falling all the way to the Wizards who pick at #19. That would be a humbling fall for a player that was regarded as a potential top five pick before he started his freshman season at Texas.

Next: Fred Hoiberg Officially Leaving Iowa State

More from Busting Brackets

Home/NBA Draft News