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Wichita State Shockers: Could this be Gregg Marshall’s Final Season at the School?

By Chris Godfrey

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In case you haven’t heard, there’s a lot of money in this college basketball thing, and as of this off-season, Greg Marshall makes his fair share of it. It’s well deserved, too. He’s pretty damn good at his job.

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The head coach of the Wichita State Shockers, a basketball program that could easily be renamed Midwestern Gonzaga University, has turned his mid-major team into a high major power. In the process of taking his team to the Final Four, an undefeated regular season (that included a top seed in the NCAA Tournament), and the preseason top 10 ranking that some prognosticators have given him going into this season (by the way, I’m one of those prognosticators) — Marshall has also become one of the highest paid coaches in college basketball.

This off-season, Marshall agreed to a new deal that will pay him over $3 million to stay at Wichita State. The pay raise came after he shunned an offer from the University of Alabama, who eventually settled on former NBA head coach Avery Johnson.

Let’s backtrack for a second.

Marshall is making more than $3 million annually to coach in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Ben Jacobsen is the coach at Northern Iowa, a formidable in-conference rival to the Shockers. After winning 31-games and capturing the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament in 2014-2015, Jacobsen received a raise at the same time as Marshall — a significant percentage boost that settled him in at about $900,000 per year.

In summary, Gregg Marshall is making over three times as much money as his closest colleague, and it’s all because of the model of consistency that he has established in a Kansas wheat town where he could just as easily be the mayor if he ever tired of being the basketball coach.

Gregg Marshall is setup to win 20 games a year at Wichita State until the day he dies…after which, his offspring should be able to win 20 games at the school as well.

Seems like a cushy gig, doesn’t it? What reason would Marshall have to be discontent? He stands to make high-major money in a mid-major conference, while he operates from a high-major facility, and competes against programs that have inferior resources.

Gregg Marshall is setup to win 20 games a year at Wichita State until the day he dies…after which, his offspring should be able to win 20 games at the school as well.

Unfortunately, none of these factors will be enough to keep Gregg Marshall at Wichita State beyond this season, and these are the key reasons why.

Every well eventually runs dry

Since his first class came to campus in 2008, no one has turned more coal into diamonds than Gregg Marshall. During his tenure at Wichita State, Marshall has only attracted two top 100 prospects, senior point guard Fred VanVleet and incoming freshman Markis McDuffie. The rest of his recruiting classes have been chocked full of low level recruits and junior college mystery men.

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    • However, Marshall has made it all work. He sent Toure’ Murry and CleAnthony Early to the NBA despite their chances of such an accomplishment being nonexistent when they came to campus. VanVleet, who was the 15th best point guard in his class (according to ESPN), is now going into his second season where he’s included in every conversation attempting to determine the nation’s best point guard. VanVleet and backcourt mate Ron Baker now seem destined for the league as well.

    The unique string of success reveals a troubling question. How long can Marshall continue to squeeze big time results out of small time recruiting classes? After this campaign, the Shockers will say goodbye to Baker and VanVleet, a duo that has been the nation’s best backcourt for the past two seasons and will be once again in their final season.

    As has become custom, the Shockers don’t seem to be in the mix for any impact recruits that will be able to carry the burden of two stalwart players that look to be headed towards the NBA next year. Despite the presence of McDuffie and a full season of Kansas transfer Connor Frankamp expected to make a difference in 2016-2017, is Marshall willing to take on what could be considered a rebuilding project after next year?

    Those who believe that Marshall will stay with Wichita for the long haul often cite Mark Few at Gonzaga as their point of reference that proves the existence of loyalty between coach and mid-major program, but Few’s experience in Spokane is much different that what Marshall faces at Wichita State.

    Mark Few is the MAN in the Pacific Northwest, and his Bulldogs are the top program in the area. Just as Wichita State shares their state with two major conference rivals (Kansas and Kansas State), Gonzaga deals with Washington and Washington State. However, Few has gotten to the point where he routinely out recruits his big brothers in the state.

    James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

    Even into Northern California and the Rockies, the reach of Gonzaga has historically extended further than the Pac-12 and Mountain West teams that reside their (Cuonzo Martin‘s recent recruiting class at Cal is a sign that he may be the person to challenge Gonzaga’s dominance on the trial). Few has also established his program in the international basketball community as well.Lastly, it can’t be underestimated that Gonzaga is in close proximity to local high school basketball hot beds in Oakland, Portland, and (most importantly) Seattle.

    These are all positive factors that are absent from Marshall’s situation at Wichita State.

    The Shockers share the state of Kansas with two major conference programs that feature rabid basketball fan bases. While an elite in-state talent will possibly pick Gonzaga over Washington, there’s no chance that an All-American from Topeka picks the Shockers over the Jayhawks.

    While an elite in-state talent will possibly pick Gonzaga over Washington, there’s no chance that an All-American from Topeka picks the Shockers over the Jayhawks.

    Even at Memphis, Josh Pastner enjoys the luxury of pitching Memphis as the basketball school in the area, as opposed to the University of Tennessee where football is the obsession du jour.

    This idea of being a perpetual second fiddle, even to a Kansas State program that Wichita State has consistently achieved more than, may be more frustrating to Marshall than anyone else is aware of.

    Gregg Marshall has turned water into wine on the recruiting trail for almost a decade, but at some point he’s due to run out of miracles — unless he finds a school where he can finally sign top-tier talents to carry out his schematic brilliance.

    The only thing better than money…is more money

    A good friend of mine lives by what I consider to be the ultimate capitalist motto. “We have to keep making money…so we can make MORE money.” Even in college sports, most of us know that it takes money to make money and that scared money don’t make money, but what do those adages that I lifted from a local dice game mean as it pertains to Gregg Marshall?

    While making over $3 million dollars to coach basketball is more than fair and reasonable, three million is still less than four million, and five million definitely beats four.

    Obvious numerical statements aside, the point is that even though Marshall is well-compensated, there will still be an athletic department more than willing to dwarf Marshall’s current deal after the conclusion of this season.

    Right now, Marshall is currently hovering just a few dollars outside the top tier of coaching salaries. A $4 million deal, which was discussed while he was courted by Alabama during the off-season, would vault Marshall into the top five of highest paid coaches in college basketball. More importantly, the number would likely be the breaking point for Marshall’s loyalty to the Shockers.

    If Tom Crean were to be sent packing from Indiana, the screams for Gregg Marshall would likely be audible in Wichita.

    Still, even after identifying a number that might make Marshall available, there still needs to be a job opening with the cash and the cache to make something percolate. It just so happens that such a spot could become available under the right circumstances.

    In a place called Hoosier Country, resides the University of Indiana, a school steeped in a tradition of winning basketball teams and bloodthirsty fans. Despite the fact that their team will debut in almost everyone’s top 15 next year, Hoosier head coach Tom Crean is sitting on the hottest hot seat in the country. Anything less than a Sweet Sixteen appearance next season will probably lead to the end of his tenure in Bloomington.

    If Tom Crean were to be sent packing from Indiana, the screams for Gregg Marshall would likely be audible in Wichita. Crean is a good coach who has recruited well and won games at the school. Firing him means that a big splash hire would be necessary to justify the decision, and at the moment, no name in college hoops can cause a bigger splash than Marshall’s.

    Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

    Indiana would give Marshall an opportunity that he wouldn’t have at Wichita State no matter how much they paid him. He’d finally have a chance to be the “big brother” in his own state. When you go out to recruit an area known as the Hoosier State, I’m sure it feels good to look down to the breast pocket of your polo and see that it says “Hoosiers” and not “Purdue.” These are the ingrained advantages that make it almost impossible for the Gregg Marshalls of the world to stay married to the Wichita States of the world. That’s the college basketball world we live in.

    The Wichita State Shockers are set to have another brilliant season. Marshall will not only return the nation’s best backcourt. He’ll have consummate glue guy Evan Wessel playing on the wing, as well as top 100 freshman Markis McDuffie and graduate transfer Anton Grady as new additions to the frontcourt.

    This could possibly be the best Shockers team ever, but that may mean more bad news than good in the long term. Another deep tournament run will only validate the suppressed fear that fans of the program have had since the Shockers made it to the Final Four in 2013. How can a coach with so much potential stay here for too much longer.

    At Wichita State, Gregg Marshall is too big to fail, but now, it seems that he’s too big to stay.

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