Iowa State-Iowa Basketball preview

We are just one day away from Iowa State’s second most important game of the year.  They host the visiting Iowa Hawkeyes Thursday night in Ames.  Here is my preview of the game along with my prediction.

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Iowa currently sports a record of 7-2 at this stage.  They are coming off a blowout victory over Western Illinois and have looked impressive over your typical non-conference slate.  They only losses they have were against the two best opponents they’ve faced so far in Dayton and Notre Dame.

The Hawkeyes currently have Jarrod Uthoff leading the way on offense.  He sports averages of 18.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 2.6 bpg.  He is also shooting exceptionally well from distance at 49%  He’s playing every bit like the player they needed after last season’s graduation departures.  Following him are Peter Jok with 12.6 points, and Adam Woodbury with 9.2 points, respectively.  Woodbury also leads the team in rebounding, grabbing 7 per contest.  He hasn’t offered much in the way of actual post defense though.  Finally, point guard Mike Gesell chugs along with 7.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 6.9 assists.

The team was recently dealt a tough blow when they lost junior college transfer Dale Jones for the season after a knee injury.

On the opposite side of the court are the #2 Iowa State Cyclones.  ISU scooted past a tough, but overwhelmed Buffalo squad on Monday to reach 7-0 on the season.  Like Iowa, the Cyclones haven’t played the cream of non-conference hoops to this point.  The best team they played was the first one, Colorado, in a nail-biter on a neutral court.  This matchup likely represents the best opponent either team has faced to this stage.

For Iowa State’s offense, pre-season All-American Georges Niang has powered the team forward.  He is averaging 18.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 3.4 apg.  He also shoots 46% from distance to this point.  Following him are Monte Morris with 14.9 point and Abdel Nader with 14.6.  Morris also dishes 7.3 assists per contest.

While the Hawkeyes have 10 players averaging at least 9 minutes a game, ISU has only 7 and recently decided to redshirt Brady Ernst for the rest of the year.

The Hawks win if – they get Iowa State in foul trouble and can keep up on offense.  Iowa is a very good team right now.  The have done well integrating new pieces and having old ones step up, but Iowa State is a different beast entirely.  Iowa has not done enough to stop quality offenses in their key games to this point and their interior defense is somewhat suspect despite a true 7-footer on roster.  Iowa absolutely needs to maintain ball pressure, shoot well from three-point range, and have success going to the hoop in order to win.

The Cyclones win if – they play like they have been playing.  Iowa State has a huge advantage having their entire starting lineup back compared to Iowa and being at home.   They have won the past two meetings and seven of the previous ten.  The biggest things for Iowa State are to play intelligent perimeter defense and to run whenever possible.  I’m not sure Iowa, despite their depth, can really keep up with Morris, Niang, and crew if foul trouble doesn’t factor in.

Matchup to watch – Georges Niang vs. Jarrod Uthoff.  I’m going with this battle for the simple reason that these two players represent huge chunks of their respective teams’ offense beyond just the points.  Uthoff is shooting slightly better, but Niang distributes like almost no other forward in America.  Both have a wealth of experience in their careers so this will be as much of a mental contest as a physical one.  I’m giving the edge to Niang due simply to his unstoppable variety of moves and ability to put his teammates in positions to score.

Final prediction – 86-74 Iowa State.  Every indication I can find shows me that this game could be a close one.  Both teams are scoring at a high pace and playing solid defense.  The game will turn on whichever team can handle pressure best and keep out of foul trouble.  Despite Iowa’s depth, their 6th through 9th guys aren’t special and can’t run with most of the Iowa State shorter rotation.  Eventually, Hilton Magic will assert itself as it usually does and propel the Cyclones to a third straight victory.