We are roughly three weeks away from what will be the most unpredictable NCAA tournament in years. It’s a good time to revise and revisit an even more busted bracketology.
So far this year we’ve seen six teams ranked number one, and ranked teams have been falling left and right for the majority of the year. Almost every regular season title among the Power 5 conferences could come down to the final game of the year.
What is unique about this season is just how many seniors are dominating play. Most of the major contenders across America, from Oregon to Oklahoma to Villanova, upperclassmen are leading the way over the typical one-and-done freshmen.
A couple things to note about my last bracketology, Grand Canyon is ineligible for play until 2018 due to reclassification from D-II. Louisville also immediately ruined my inclusion by announcing a postseason ban due to the allegations made against the program before the season began. This could mean a mid-major at-large bid or two if enough power teams stay on the bubble.
With all the insanity of the 2015-2016 season, we might just finally see a 16-seed upset a 1.
Recap of automatic bids and number of teams per conference:
ACC: 7 teams
Big 12: 7 teams
Big Ten: 6 teams
Pac-12: 6 teams
SEC: 5 teams
Big East: 4 teams
American: 3 teams
Atlantic 10: 3 teams
WCC: 2 teams
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: North Florida
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Hawaii
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Valparaiso
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Monmouth
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Chattanooga
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
WAC: New Mexico State
Next: The Savory 16s
16 Seeds: Bucknell, Montana, Norfolk State, Belmont
Bucknell maintains a one game lead over Navy and Boston University for the Patriot League crown. They have faltered in the last two weeks, going 1-3. They are still in the driver’s seat for the conference title, but probably need to beat Navy in Annapolis to secure the Patriot League tournament’s top seed.
Montana is still firmly in control over the Big Sky conference. They only a half-game up over second place Weber State, but have three home games remaining on the schedule. They also have a better record on the road, going 6-7 this year over 3-6 for Weber State. Martin Breunig is a force this year, averaging 19.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.1 bpg, and shooting 66% from the floor.
Belmont has hit a rough stretch recently. They have gone 2-3 over their past five games and sit tied with Tennessee Tech for the Ohio Valley East lead. Forward Evan Bradds is still the Bruins big star, but junior needs to step up even more before the season’s end. This Saturday, Tennessee Tech visits Belmont in what could decide who sits atop the OVC going into championship week.
The Norfolk State Spartans are looking like MEAC spoilers. They have won three straight to sit a half game behind Hampton for the conference lead. NSU doesn’t leap off the page, but they are balanced. The Spartans have eight players averaging at least 15 minutes and 5 points a game. The Mid-East Athletic Conference could very well come down to the NSU-Hamp rematch in Norfolk on March 3rd.
Next: The Fine 15s
15 Seeds: North Florida, New Mexico State, Winthrop, UAB
The North Florida Ospreys are falling apart, losing four straight to fall into a tie with Jacksonville and New Jersey Institute of Technology. The somewhat forgivable fact of that is that three of those losses were on the road. Dallas Moore is still an offensive force, scoring 28 in the most recent loss to Lipscompb, but NFU must defeat NJIT and Jacksonville in two of their last three games before the Atlantic Sun tournament.
New Mexico State will likely be the champion and automatic bid from the WAC due to Grand Canyon’s ineligibility. The Aggies are still rolling through conference play at 9-1 and are one game up on CSU-Bakersfield for first place. Defense and rebounding are the hallmarks of this team, as both statistics rate in the top-30 nationally.
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Winthrop is one of my new entries this time. The Eagles have fought their way into a tie with UNC-Asheville for the Big South lead with four games left. Winthrop can score in bunches thanks to the trio of Keon Johnson, Jimmy Gavin, and Xavier Cooks. The three combine for 51 points per game. If the three can power the team to a win over UNCA on Saturday, they are looking fine for the Big South’s number one seed.
UAB is still likely to win Conference-USA, with a one game lead over Middle Tennessee. Their resume remains largely the same, but will need to hold off Marshall at home and upset MTSU on the road to feel confident going into the postseason.
Next: The Forceful 14s
14 Seeds: UNC Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State, Akron
Stephen F. Austin has opened up a 2.5 game lead over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi for the Southland title. SFA doesn’t have a key win on its resume, but there is little to worry the Lumberjacks barring a complete collapse in their final seven games. Be sure to watch forward Thomas Walkup, who leads the Lumberjacks in almost every statistical category except three point percentage.
UNC-Wilmington has opened up a two game lead over second place Hofstra. This included a dramatic 20 point comeback over the Pride on the road. The hardest remaining game for the Seahawks is hosting Hofstra next Thursday, but the Colonial Athletic title looks like a solid bet for right now.
The Akron Zips have run past the rest of the Mid-American conference. They lead the MAC-East by two games and have a better record than anyone in the MAC–West. This team’s biggest strength is outside shooting, where four players shoot over 41% from range.
South Dakota State is in a tight race with IPFW to win the Summit League. Both teams sit at 9-3 with a game at IPFW left to potentially decide the Summit title. I’m interested to see if Jackrabbits can hold off the Mastodons, who have never played in the NCAA tournament in the team’s 42 year history.
Next: The Thunderous 13s
13 Seeds: Hawaii, Chattanooga, Yale, Stony Brook
Hawaii has overtaken California-Irvine’s mammoth front court to lead the Big West by one game. The Rainbow Warriors have won four straight and have six games left. Their two hardest games are at UC-Irvine and at Long Beach State. If Hawaii falters, either of those two could take the conference.
Chattanooga has been among the most impressive mid-majors this year. The Mocs are 23-4 with a 12-2 record in the Southern Conference, good for a 1.5 game lead over Furman. They are 37th in RPI and hold quality wins over at Dayton and at Georgia with a few bad losses outside the RPI 150+. If they get the right draw, Chattanooga could be one of the Cinderellas come tournament time.
The Yale Bulldogs continue to stand atop the Ivy League. They hold a 1.5 game lead over Princeton and a two game lead over Columbia. At 8-0, Yale is a near-lock to win the regular season and secure the Ivy’s automatic bid, as the conference does not have a postseason tournament.
I would not want to play Stony Brook in the first round this year. The Seawolves have absolutely crushed most of the American East conference. They lost their first game in conference play, but are still 13-1 and have a two game lead over second place Albany. Jameel Warney warrants serious consideration for the Karl Malone award as the nation’s top power forward. The senior averages 19.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.2 bpg, 1.0 spg, and shoots 63%. The man is a beast.
Next: The Titanic 12s
12 Seeds: Arkansas-Little Rock, Valparaiso, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s
Valparaiso are still one of the most visible mid-major contenders this year, even after dropping a home game to Wright State. They remain number one in the Horizon League at 11-2, 1.5 games ahead of Wright State and Oakland. Alec Peters remains the big show for the Crusaders, but will need to shoot better than 33% from range in the team’s final four games to secure the Horizon’s automatic bid.
San Diego State has a stranglehold on the Mountain West. The Aztecs have a conference record of 12-1, which is good for a 3.5 game lead over second place New Mexico. SDSU still ranks near the bottom of national offensive statistics, but owns the 5th best defense nationally at 60.2 ppg.
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Saint Mary’s is a strong contender to be the West Coast Conference’s at-large bid. They are one game back from Gonzaga at 11-3. The Gaels hold quality wins over Gonzaga, and BYU, but do hold two odd losses to Pepperdine. I, for one, hope that Saint Mary’s gets in so America can watch Emmett Naar‘s 51% three-point stroke. He doesn’t shoot a lot, but the sophomore from Sydney is an impressively accurate shooter.
Arkansas Little-Rock still sits two games up on the rest of the Sun Belt at 12-2. They have six games left, three each at home and away. Texas-Arlington is the only team left that has a winning record, so it’s almost a sure thing that we’ll see the Trojans and their number one defense (58.6 ppg) in March.
Next: The Electric 11s
11 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Temple, Connecticut, Syracuse
Syracuse has rebounded in impressive fashion after a rough opening to the season. After starting ACC play at 0-4, the Orange are 8-5, tied for seventh behind Duke and Louisville. With four games left, Syracuse is probably a solid lock if they win at Louisville, home over Pittsburgh, or at North Carolina.
The Temple Owls has muscled the rest of the American Conference aside to reach 10-3 in conference play. This is thanks to a recent five game win streak that includes wins over Tulsa and Connecticut. With six games left, including a nonconference game at home against Villanova, Temple has positioned themselves well to finish strong for an at-large bid, if not the automatic.
UCONN is currently tied for second in the American Conference with a record of 9-4. They recently picked up a key win over SMU to get just their second win against the RPI top-50. I like the Huskies’ chances for an at-large bid if they can win at Cincinnati or SMU before season’s end.
Pittsburgh is a weak bubble team right now. They have decent strength of schedule and RPI, but are just 5-7 against the RPI top-100 while being ninth in the ACC at 7-6. The Panthers need to win either at Syracuse or at home over Louisville or Duke to secure a bid before the ACC tournament.
Next: The Terrific 10s
10 Seeds: Saint Josephs, VCU, Cincinnati, Monmouth
Monmouth has managed to bump up their seeding in the past couple weeks with continued success in the Mid-Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Hawks sit first in conference play at 13-2 with five games left. There is very little danger from the likes of Iona or Saint Peters at this stage, barring a conference tournament upset.
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VCU is in a dead heat for the Atlantic 10 with Saint Joe’s and Dayton, who hold slightly better overall records. All three are 11-2 in A-10 play. The Rams have three of their final four on the road, so they absolutely need to play solid and maybe even knock off Dayton on the Flyers’ home court to feel confident in their post season.
Cincinnati still sits in a strong position in a logjam for second in the American Conference. The Bearcats recently collected a bad loss at Memphis (RPI 134), but still has multiple quality wins both in and out of conference play. If Cincinnati wins at Tulsa, at Houston, or at home against SMU in the regular season finale, they should probably make the Big Dance.
Saint Josephs now technically leads the A-10 after beating Dayton at home Wednesday night. The Hawks’ resume doesn’t stand out, but they haven’t lost to anyone outside the RPI top 100 this year. Saint Joe’s hardest remaining game before the A-10 Conference tournament is at fourth place St. Bonaventure, who will try and play spoiler.
Next: The Divine 9s
9 Seeds: Gonzaga, Florida, Wichita State, Creighton
Gonzaga hasn’t shined the way some might have expected before the year began, but the Bulldogs still look like the favorite to win the West Coast Conference yet again. They are currently 12-2, one game up on Saint Mary’s. They lost their most recent game against nonconference SMU to finish a four game road trip. If Gonzaga doesn’t win the WCC’s automatic bid, they will need to beat Saint Mary’s at home and BYU in Ogden to secure their future.
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Wichita State has very little room for error. After starting Missouri Valley play 11-0, the Shockers have stumbled to 12-2 after their last three MVC games. The regular season finale against second place Illinois State could decide who has the greater momentum going into tournament week. The race for the conference’s automatic bid is wide open if WSU can’t lock it down in their final four games.
Florida is still likely to receive at at-large bid, despite going just 3-2 in their past five games. They are tied with South Carolina and Texas A&M for third in the SEC with five games left. I’m not worried about the Gators making the Big Dance, but if the win at South Carolina, at LSU, or home against Kentucky, it will only help the team. Florida also has the benefit of the ninth hardest schedule in America this year.
You’re all going to think I’m crazy for including Creighton, but hear me out. The Bluejays’ resume is not particularly good, only 4-9 against the top 100 in RPI, but they recently upset Xavier and sit fourth in the Big East. With several mid-major schools on shaky ground, Creighton could finish strong to sneak in behind Villanova and the Muskateers. Nothing Creighton does is super impressive, but they have a relatively favorable schedule left. If the team can win at Providence and pull the upset sweet over Xavier, they are a solid bet to make the Big Dance.
Next: The Exciting 8s
8 Seeds: Michigan, Colorado, California, Texas Tech
Colorado is pushing toward the top of Pac-12 play. The Buffaloes are at 8-6 and tied with California for sixth. They are a good bet to receive an at-large bid if they can win at UCLA or hold court against Arizona before conference tournament week.
Cal is starting to surge at the right time. The Golden Bears have won three straight, including a dominating performance over Oregon. They are still tied for fifth with USC, but four of the team’s final six games are against opponents below them in the standings. A huge opportunity looms when Arizona visits Berkeley on March 3rd. Watch out for Cal and their talented freshman duo of Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.
Michigan is fighting for an at-large birth with Wisconsin. The Wolverines are 9-5, sixth in the Big 10, after losing at Ohio State. The schedule isn’t the easiest either, with road games at Maryland and Wisconsin, and at home against Iowa. The maize and blue need to win at least two of those games to shift to the positive side of the bubble.
Anyone who said Texas Tech was a legitimate NCAA team in the preseason is likely a liar. The Red Raiders, even sitting at seventh in the Big 12 with a record of 6-7, have overcome all expectations. The owner of the third hardest schedule in the country has gone 7-8 against the RPI top 100, but only has one loss to anyone beyond that (Arkasas, RPI 113). Tubby Smith has this team playing phenomenally down the stretch and could make a run if given the right matchups.
Next: The Superb 7s
7 Seeds: LSU, USC, South Carolina, Providence
LSU looks more solid than ever to make the NCAA tournament. They’ve lost to Alabama and at South Carolina, but won against Texas A&M to stick at second place in the SEC. The Tigers are 9-4, a half game behind Kentucky, with five games left. Of those five, three are on the road, so LSU will need to play to potential over the likes of Arkansas and Missouri while maintaining respectability in contests against Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky.
South Carolina is third in the SEC behind the LSU Tigers and Kentucky at 8-5. What is troubling right now is how the Gamecocks just picked up a bad loss to a bad Mizzou squad in Columbia, MO. This, coupled with the 301st nonconference strength of schedule, keeps SC on the bubble unless they can beat either Florida or Tennessee in Columbia, SC.
USC picked up a major comeback win at home against Colorado on Wednesday evening. The Trojans stormed back from an eight point halftime deficit to score 50 points in the second half! The win puts the team in a tie with Utah for third in the Pac-12 with five games left. I like USC’s chances to get an at-large bid with an RPI of 21 and the 42nd hardest schedule in the country. At the same time, they do need to avoid a collapse down the stretch and win a game during Championship Week.
Providence has stumbled badly in their past five games, going 1-4. The Friars are still probably in, but a bad loss to DePaul and getting swept by Marquette means that Providence needs to win at Seton Hall and hold off Creighton at home or win a couple games in the Big East tournament to reach the NCAA.
Next: The Slick 6s
6 Seeds: Baylor, Indiana, Utah, Arizona
Baylor, after their recent struggles, got a massive win over the visiting Iowa State Cyclones. The tourniquet win keeps Baylor tied for third in the Big 12 at 8-5. With four hard games left at Texas and Oklahoma, hosting Kansas and West Virginia, and a breather in the middle at TCU, Baylor should feel mostly confident about their postseason prospects.
Arizona Wildcats
Indiana again sits tied atop the Big Ten leaderboard. The Hoosiers have a record of 11-3 after their most recent win over Nebraska. Three of the final four games left are tough, with home contests against Purdue and Maryland along with a road visit to Iowa as well. It’ll be interesting if Indiana’s 11th ranked offense continues to make up for the 121st best defense.
Arizona has won six straight to retake first in the Pac 12. The Wildcats are 10-4, a half game up on Oregon for the regular season title. What’s even more impressive is how the team has done it without two of their best in Allonzo Trier and Kaleb Tarczewski, who have missed 15 games combined. Ryan Anderson has been a workhorse, averaging nearly 16 and 10 while also shooting 58% from the field.
Utah continues to fight through the muddy Pac-12 behind Arizona. The Utes are 8-5, good for a third place tie with USC. I have no real doubts that Utah will make the NCAA’s, but potential wins at USC and home against Arizona and Colorado will only improve the resume. Jakob Poeltl is a legitimate contender for conference POY while averaging 17.8 points and 8.8 boards a game.
Next: The Phenomenal 5s
5 Seeds: Duke, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Purdue
Duke picked up a huge win when they scored the comeback victory at North Carolina on Wednesday evening. Even with the win, Duke has to be mildly concerned that starting guard Matt Jones suffered an ankle injury during the game. The Blue Devils are already a man down without senior Amile Jefferson and another injury would shorten an already thin bench.
I don’t really know what has happened to Texas A&M. After beating Iowa State in January, the Aggies lost four straight and now sit tied for third in the SEC with South Carolina and Florida. There’s no real danger in missing the postseason with the team’s quality resume (which includes victories over Texas, Gonzaga, and Baylor), but the Aggies really need to go at least 3-2 in their final five regular season games to maintain a favorable seed.
Notre Dame is another member of the ACC that is making a late run. The Irish most recently picked up a win over Louisville to tie the Cardinals and Duke for fourth in ACC play at 9-4. I love the team’s final five games, which features only one team with a winning conference record in Miami.
I feel like Purdue has been overlooked a lot this year, with so much focus on Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland in Big Ten play. Nonetheless, the Boilermakers have managed to hang at fifth in the conference standings with a record of 9-5. Assuming the team doesn’t collapse in their final four games, I like them in the Big Dance with the fifth most rebounds per game, 14th most assists per game, and 17th best defense for point allowed.
Next: The Formidable 4s
4 Seeds: Oregon, Kentucky, Dayton, Texas
The Oregon Ducks have lost a bit of steam in the Pac-12. They still sit second with a record of 9-4, but have lost two straight in road games to Cal and Stanford. At this stage, with games against Washington, Washington State, UCLA, and USC, I’m not sure how much more Oregon can improve it’s seeding. However, The Ducks do have a solid enough resume to stick in March.
Kentucky Wildcats
Texas a near-lock for an at-large bid right now. They are tied with Oklahoma and Baylor at 8-5 in Big 12 play. They have a tough final five games, but the three best opponents (Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas) are all at home in Austin. Shaka Smart has had an impressive first year as the Longhorns head coach.
Kentucky is on fire. They have won their past four games by an average of 20 points. The Wildcats are now first in the SEC at 10-3. If Kentucky can win at Texas A&M, at Florida, or against LSU and win the SEC tournament, they might jump all the way into the conversation for a top-2 seed.
Even with a loss to Saint Joseph’s, the Dayton Flyers are still well-positioned to finish strong in Atlantic-10 play. With a conference record of 11-2, it would take a precipitous collapse against the likes of Saint Louis, Rhode Island, and Richmond to finish outside the conferences top two seeds going into tournament week.
Next: The Thrilling 3s
3 Seeds: Iowa State, Michigan State, West Virginia, Maryland
Michigan State has been a mild disappointment in the Big Ten. Very few people would have predicted that Sparty would only be 8-5 at this point in February. Transfer Eron Harris has been a serious letdown, only averaging 9.3 points after scoring around 17 per game when at West Virginia. However, Michigan State always seems to peak right around this time before tournament season, so it’s never safe to sleep on Tom Izzo’s boys.
West Virginia has almost won Bob Huggins Big 12 Coach of the Year if they can hold onto second place behind Kansas. With a 9-4 record after being picked to finish sixth, the Mountaineers have put forth a tremendous run thanks to suffocating defense and volume offense. It remains to be seen if the type of play can carry a team in March, but WVU will give it a run.
Iowa State has seen overly high expectations crash to earth this year. The Cyclones are now sixth in the Big 12 at 7-6, but are still likely to stay in the 3-4 seed range thanks to no bad losses in conference play. What’s important to remember is that while Iowa State has trouble closing teams due to depth and defense on the boards, their offensive talent is still top notch with All-American Georges Niang and a promising head coach in Steve Prohm.
After multiple chances to solidify their lead in the Big Ten, Maryland now sits a game back of first after two straight losses to Wisconsin and at previously winless Minnesota. The Terps absolutely need to rebound with home games against Michigan and Illinois if they are to stay in the Big Ten’s top tier.
Next: The Terrifying 2s
2 Seeds: Iowa, Xavier, Virginia, Miami (Fl)
Iowa is starting to stumble down the stretch. They’ve lost two of three after going 10-1 in conference play. Iowa is still tied for first place, but the Hawkeyes need to at least beat Indiana at home on March 1st if they want to win their first Big Ten title in decades.
Iowa Hawkeyes
After losing at Creighton last week, Xavier has won two straight to rebound and remains second in the Big East at 11-3. The Musketeers have home games against Villanova and Creighton, with an important road game at Seton Hall that will count heavily towards their overall resume.
Miami leads the chaotic ACC at 10-3 on the back of a five game win streak. The Hurricanes have a tough remaining stretch with games at North Carolina and Notre Dame book-ending home games against Virginia and Louisville. Miami has at least positioned itself well for a strong postseason run before ACC tournament play.
Virginia is one of the teams trending strongest for a one seed out of this group. The Cavaliers are 10-4 in the ACC and have won eight of their last nine. They will have to find scoring at some point, with an offense rated in the mid-200s, but if history is any indication, the teams’s third ranked defense in points allowed (59.5) could take them far in March.
Next: The Wonderful 1s
1 Seeds: Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, North Carolina
Even though Oklahoma will probably not dethrone Kansas, the Sooners have done more than enough this year to be awarded a number 1. Buddy Hield is still the likely national POY and could easily shoot his team to a deep run.
Despite North Carolina’s collapse against Duke, the Tar Heels are still likely to win the ACC and secure a number 1 seed. The team does a lot of things exceedingly well, but needs to improve on a team-wide 31% three-point range to keep teams from packing the paint.
Even with the hype surrounding other schools, Villanova is my current pick to win the title. The Wildcats are 1.5 games up in the Big East at 12-1, with only a road game at Xavier standing between Nova and the regular season crown. Aside from rebounds, the team is efficient on offense and tenacious on defense. I love what Villanova is bringing right now.
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Kansas has likely done it again. Unless something bizarre happens, the Jayhawks will win their 12th straight Big 12 regular season title to the dismay of conference opponents and the amazement of everyone else. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve done it almost entirely without reliable production from anyone on the bench. Only four players average more than 15 minutes or seven points a game.