VCU Basketball: Rams’ season goals in doubt after George Mason loss

VCU basketball’s chance at an NCAA Tournament bid took a major hit after the Rams’ loss to George Mason Wednesday night.

At the beginning of Atlantic-10 play, VCU didn’t look like an NCAA Tournament team. With an 8-5 record and no quality wins, the Rams looked to be in a rebuilding year following the departure of Head Coach Shaka Smart to Texas. The team entered conference looking like a team on its way to finishing in the middle of the pack in the Atlantic-10.

Will Wade’s team quickly saw its fortunes turn around once conference play started. VCU jumped out to a 9-0 start in the A-10, picking up quality wins over St. Bonaventure and Saint Joseph’s along the way. The team looked to be well on its way to securing an NCAA Tournament at-large bid, but recently things haven’t gone as well. The team went 3-3 in its last six games, including sub-150 RPI losses to UMass and George Mason.

Following Wednesday night’s loss to George Mason, VCU’s road to an Atlantic 10 championship became much more demanding. The Rams entered the night in sole possession of first place in the conference standings. Losing caused VCU to fall back into a three-way tie in the conference with Dayton and Saint Joseph’s.

VCU’s remaining schedule will make winning the Atlantic-10 title extremely difficult. The Rams have road games against fellow bubble team George Washington and fellow A-10 title contender Dayton. While both wins present great opportunities to boost the team’s resume, they make for a much tougher finish to the regular season than the other teams contending for the title will face. Sandwiched between the road games, VCU welcomes a Davidson team fighting for a Top 4 finish in the conference to the Siegel Center.

Dayton coughed up sole possession of first place in the A-10 over the weekend, but still sits in a decent position to claim the conference title. Before VCU comes to town for the Flyers’ season finale, it will host Rhode Island and travel to the University of Richmond. Both the Rams and the Spiders are currently under .500 in conference, so Dayton will have a great opportunity to go into the season finale with at least a share of the conference title on the line.

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On paper, Saint Joe’s has the easiest trip to the Atlantic 10 title. The Hawks play home games against Duquesne and Saint Louis — both currently in the bottom half of the conference at 5-10 in A-10 play — and take a trip to fourth place St. Bonaventure.

Even the Bonnies and Colonials have a chance to get into the A-10 title mix, though neither is in control of its own destiny. St. Bonaventure is a game back of the three-way tie, while George Washington trails the cluster by two games.

In addition to VCU’s diminished likelihood of winning the Atlantic- 10, the George Mason loss left its NCAA Tournament resume looking less than impressive. The Rams now have as many RPI top-50 wins (2) as RPI sub-150 losses. The George Washington and Dayton road games will be even more important to VCU’s chances at an at-large bid than to its chances of an A-10 title, as they present additional opportunities for badly needed quality wins.

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VCU entered the night in a less than ideal position on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a bad loss to George Mason will make it’s road to the Big Dance much more difficult. At least one of the team’s two remaining road games will likely be a must-win to avoid needing a deep run in the A-10 Tournament.