NCAA Tournament: What to expect in the Midwest Region

With only a day before the 2016 NCAA Tournament kicks off in full, let’s take a look at the Midwest bracket and get to the bottom of what matters and who survives.

Of the four regions in the 2016 Big Dance, the Midwest bracket presents a much clearer path to the Final Four by being a little more top heavy than the other regions.

Related Story: East Region Preview

Unlike the virtual regions of death in the South and East, the Midwest features a strong one-and-two seed, but little in the way of clear Cinderella’s that could upset the apple cart.

That said, there are a couple teams that could cause minor shockwaves through the bracket and make what seems like a calmer region into something much more interesting. Let’s take a closer look at some of the matches and how we think things will turnout on the road to Houston.

Marquee Matchups

Instead of going through the entire bracket, let’s focus on the matches that matter on Thursday and Friday. For example, No. 1 Virginia will have no problem with No. 16 Hampton, but the real meat on Thursday will come in the form of No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 9 Butler.

Led by Tubby Smith, the 19-12 Red Raiders have been a surprise of sorts with their late-season surge, so don’t let their lack of 20 wins fool you. On the other hand, Chris Holtmann’s Bulldogs look to continue a path toward tournament success forged by previous head coach Brad Stevens.

Giving Butler the edge is the combo of Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, who both stand to help the Bulldogs upset Virginia, even if it looks unlikely on the surface.

No. 6 Seton Hall and No. 11 Gonzaga is another match that will have fans perched at the end of their seats, despite the disparate seedings.

Seton Hall is primed to make it into next weekend, but the Bulldogs’ revived backcourt and duel threat of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis will pose a challenge that could end up with the Zags moving on to the second round.

Second Round Serenades

Of all the Saturday and Sunday matches, No. 1 Virginia, No. 3 Utah and No. 4 Iowa State are the only teams who face a real danger in not advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.

Virginia will likely face a very hungry and potentially dangerous Butler team that has been known to go after the surprise win. The prime thing working in the Hoos’ favor is the matchup between the Bulldogs and Texas Tech will be a physical one, and could take a toll on a Butler team that’s already had a problem with injuries this year.

While some think No. 14 Fresno St. has a solid chance of upsetting Utah in the first round, we see them moving on to face Seton Hall.

Iowa State and No. 5 Purdue could not only go either way, but could give us the most exciting of the Saturday matches. Conventional wisdom argues in the favor of the Cyclones, but it’s hard not to think that A.J. Hammons and Caleb Swanigan aren’t going to kick the Boilers into overdrive with a game that could likely come down to a final shot.

In the lone Sunday second round match in the Midwest region, Michigan State should roll against Dayton, but it’s hard not to love what Archie Miller is doing with the Flyers. Would it be enough to shock the Spartans? Absolutely not, but it’s hard to see this one as a total blowout.

Who’s Your Cinderella?

Of the teams most likely to somehow escape into the Sweet Sixteen, No. 10 Syracuse and No. 12 Little Rock don’t have any of that kind of magic that leads to improbable runs.

Most, myself included, don’t even think the Orange belong in this tournament, largely because of the fact that they’ve lost five of their last six, and the last win against a team in this tournament came on Jan. 28.

More from Busting Brackets

For their part, Purdue should make short work out of a Little Rock team who is a little more gristle than steak for my tastes.

From there, the best bets look like Butler and Seton Hall.

For Butler to get to the Sweet Sixteen, they would have to cool down the hot hand of Malcolm Brogdon (18.6 ppg) and a defense who’s third in the nation in points allowed (59.7). Is it doable? It is, but that game will be about as physical a one as you can expect.

Seton Hall has relatively easier path to the Sweet Sixteen and honestly, this is a game you want to see as Utah’s Jakob Poeltl and Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead face off for the first time.

While the matchup is pretty close, Seton Hall showed enough of that late-season fire to move past the Utes.

Most Anticipated Games?

Potential upsets aside, the Midwest region is all about seeing the third matchup between Virginia and Michigan State. While Virginia might be in danger of falling victim to an early exit in the second or third rounds, the Midwest is nowhere near as volatile a region as the South and East, so the odds of seeing a rematch is pretty favorable.

Of course the Hoos would prefer not to see the Spartans and National Player of the Year candidate Denzel Valentine, as the Spartans handed Virginia bitter defeat in their last two meetings.

So Who’s Going to the Final Four?

Without question, Michigan State not only the strength and the backcourt to run roughshod through the Midwest Region, this is also, by far, the team to beat in the Big Dance.

It’s become a cliche of sorts to say that March belongs to Tom Izzo, but the facts are undeniable. When it comes to March Madness, the Spartans show up to play. This is a team that endured and survived injury to its top player and yet pushed on, getting hot at just the right time.

More busting brackets: South Region Preview

It would be hard to think that there’s a team out there who could stop the Spartans at this point, and even though anything is possible, the odds are than Izzo will be leading his Spartans to Houston, and likely coming back to East Lansing as champions.