2016 NBA Draft: Breaking down Jamal Murray as a draft prospect

Where will Jamal Murray be selected in the 2016 NBA Draft after declaring on Friday?

A couple weeks ago John Calipari tweeted that every player on his team that was eligible to enter the NBA Draft – including his walk-ons – would opt to do so in order to take advantage of the new draft rules.

On Friday, a day before the Final Four, the Wildcats had a press conference announcing that freshman shooting guard Jamal Murray would indeed enter the NBA and would also sign an agent. Murray is the only freshman at Kentucky under Calipari to average 20.0+ points per game and will likely find himself off the board in the lottery.

In their latest mock drafts, DraftExpress and Sports Illustrated have Murray slated to be selected at number six overall to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are desperate for not only a point guard but talent that is on the same development path as Anthony Davis.

While there is almost no way of Murray dropping beyond the number 10 overall selection, that doesn’t mean he is ready to be a contributor right away. It also doesn’t mean that he is anything close to being a finished product.

We all know Murray can shoot the basketball. He is a “bucket getter,” has a true “scorers mentality” and also has the ability to put the ball in the basket from all areas of the floor. The 6’4″ talent has good size, can put the basketball on the floor and is versatile – he can play on or off the ball.

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“The thing that the league is on right now is stretching the court and making shots,” Calipari told Dan Patrick on Friday. “He’s 6’5″, he can dunk it however you want him to dunk it, can make shots, he’s playing much better in the mid-range drawing fouls and he’s 19. He just turned 19 three weeks ago.”

Murray also has excellent experience, playing against high-quality competition for years, including this past summer when he dominated the United States in the Pan-American games.

But on the the downside, Murray lacks defensive skills, struggles with creativity at times and will need to continue to develop his passing skills.

Will he be able to defend talented point guards and shooting guards at the NBA level when he had issues in college? How will he create against more physical “men”? And can he be a legitimate point guard early in his career after playing off the ball for the majority of his college career due to the presence of Tyler Ulis?

In fairness to the freshman, his improvement over the course of his freshman year in Lexington was impressive.

The improvement Jamal showed over the course of the season may be unmatched by anyone I've ever coached.
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) April 1, 2016

He grew into a true winner and one of the most efficient scorers.
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) April 1, 2016

Through his first 10 games, Murray averaged 15.5 points per game and was very inefficient, especially in his first three college outings (18-of-45 from the field). In his final 14 games, Murray averaged 24 points per game and he drastically improved his efficiency.

The combo guard didn’t record more than five assists in a single game in the final 14 games and Ulis was putting Murray in the perfect position to knock down rhythm jumpers, but it shows that with elite coaching, the 19-year old can become a fearful player at the highest level of basketball.

The problem is that fans and executives are becoming more and more impatient nowadays. With jobs on the line yearly, coaches and personnel are looking for talent that is capable of developing at the fastest rate possible.

Is Murray going to elevate a franchise to a possible playoff position in year one, year two or even year three? No. Can his game fill out and can he become a solid starting point guard or shooting guard over time? Absolutely.

Next: How did the Big East finish in the Big Dance?

We just all need to be patient.

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