The Big West Tournament tips off today in Anaheim, California. UC Irvine is expected to repeat as conference champions, but a handful of the remaining teams could surprise the Anteaters.
This has been a rough year for the Big West Conference, as only UC Davis was able to finish the non-conference schedule with a winning record, going 8-7. The winner of this tournament will most likely get a 15- or 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The league’s disappointing non-conference season does not mean that the tournament will not be competitive. With just five games separating the first and sixth place teams, anybody could potentially win.
Projected Winner: UC Irvine
UC Irvine is the favorite to win the Big West for the second year in a row. Led by senior Luke Nelson, the Anteaters enter the tournament with a 14-4 record and the first seed.
Nelson, who was out due to injury at the beginning of the season, played just 14 games for the Anteaters. In those 14 games, he has averaged 17.2 points, and Irvine’s record is an impressive 12-2.
The Anteaters are coming off an impressive 79-49 victory over second seed UC Davis, and have won six of their last seven games.
Their success this season has come on the defensive end, giving up 64.8 points and grabbing just under 40 rebounds. This defense has improved over the last seven games, with opponents averaging only 58 points against the Anteaters.
Teams such as UC Davis could challenge UC Irvine for the title. However, if they are able to play this stifling defense in the tournament, and Luke Nelson can continue to score at a high rate, the Anteaters should have an easy time winning the bid.
Team That Could Make a Run: Cal State Northridge
Cal State Northridge, despite their sixth place finish, could contend for the Big West title based on their offensive ability.
The Matadors are the most efficient offense in the conference, leading the Big West in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. They also rank third in the conference in three-point percentage.
The Matadores are led in scoring by Kendall Smith, Darin Johnson, and Tavrion Dawson. The three juniors combine for 44.8 points, 14.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. They, along with senior Aaron Parks, are all in the top-15 in the Big West for points per game.
Next: 2017 WAC Tournament breakdown
While CSUN is not a fantastic defensive team, the rest of the Big West will need their shots to fall in order to win. The Matadors could surprise teams that may look past them as an easy win.