NCAA Basketball is entering league play and the Tuesday mailbag is back. Big Dance bids across conferences are the talk of the week.
This last week in NCAA Basketball was rather subdued because of teams taking days off for the holiday season but there was still some spectacular action. The Diamond Head Classic took center stage over the past few days as some of the only basketball being played.
In addition, this last week represented the end of non-conference play. Starting with this last week in December and the beginning of January, it is now time for everybody to prove themselves against their own conference.
With that being said, I once again took to Twitter for our weekly mailbag. Here are the questions that were asked and how I feel about each of the topics.
Question 1: What mid-major teams on the bubble right now do you think have the best chance to ultimately get an at-large? (asked by Fumblin’ Rebel)
As of right now, I think that the only guaranteed mid-major (which include everybody outside of the Power 6 + MWC and AAC) bid is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs should make the field comfortably at the end of the year, but that leaves several other programs on the bubble. Across many conferences, the top five teams with hopes of reaching the Big Dance are St. Bonaventure, Northern Iowa, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, and St. Mary’s to me.
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Each of these teams has proven in the early portion of the season that even if they do not win their respective conference tournaments, they belong in the discussion for an NCAA Tournament bid. Whether they are still on the bubble at the end of the regular season is another story but those are the most proven mid-majors to this point in the year and every high-major team will want to avoid them on Selection Sunday.
Question 2: How many Big Ten teams will ultimately earn March Madness bids? (asked by Badger of Honor)
In each of the last three seasons, the Big Ten has sent seven teams exactly to the NCAA Tournament. With the conference in the middle of a down season as a whole, I do not think that they will reach that mark this season. History may disagree with me but I think that only five teams will be awarded bids this season. The conference has not sent this few of teams to the Big Dance since the 2009-10 season when the league only had 11 teams.
For this season, in particular, the only two obvious bids will be Michigan State and Purdue. Both the Spartans and the Boilermakers are clear-cut top-25 teams and should receive solid seeds based on their play in the non-conference schedule. After those two, though, there are only a few other teams in consideration.
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Right now, it looks like Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, and Minnesota are the only other teams in consideration. If all four of these teams hear their name called on Selection Sunday, that would be a bit of surprise and the conference would still only send six teams to the NCAA Tournament.
There is a big problem that will hurt the middle of the Big Ten in regards to receiving bids. As of right now, the only two wins that would classify as high-quality in the conference are Michigan State and Purdue. Because of this, the middle of the pack will be eager to snag victories over these teams. The issue with this is that with every loss those top two teams suffer, the value of those wins goes down. It is for this reason that I think only five teams will get in.
Question 3: How many NCAA bids do you see the AAC snagging and who will those teams be? (asked by Tony Patelis)
There are a few things that I think the AAC has going for them this year. First of all, the addition of Wichita State is huge. The Shockers are a clear-cut top-15 team in the nation this season and they automatically improve the strength of the conference at the top. Then, this is definitely a down year for two of the nation’s power conferences in the Pac-12 and the Big Ten. As both of these conferences receive fewer bids than normal, the AAC should be one of the beneficiaries.
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When the season is all said and done, I think that the AAC will receive four total bids, two more than last year. To answer the question of who those teams are, I see Wichita State, Cincinnati, SMU, and Temple as NCAA Tournament teams right now. Each of these squads has already proven that they can compete at the highest level.
Still, the only two “locks’ in my book are Wichita State and Cincinnati. I also think that Houston and UCF have legitimate non-conference resumes that could be built into a potential NCAA Tournament bid.
Next: Ranking the top conferences
That finishes up another edition of the Tuesday mailbag. If you would like to be featured in next week’s version, follow us at @BustingBrackets or me at @hardwiredsports. The next time period to submit questions will start on Sunday, Dec. 31, so be on the lookout!