Michigan State Basketball: Why the Spartans’ resume is so weak

Throughout this season, Michigan State basketball has been a staple near the top of the AP poll. Yet, their potential NCAA Tournament seed is low. Why?

In this week’s edition of Bracketology, our projected field placed Michigan State basketball as a No. 4 seed. Considering the talent on the roster, the coaching acumen, and their AP ranking, this may come as a bit of a surprise. But really, what has Michigan State done to deserve a high ranking?

There is not a whole lot to explain putting Michigan State on the one or two lines this season. At times, they pass the eye test for a top seed with flying colors. On other occasions, though, the team looks vulnerable not only against top teams but lowly opponents as well. For reference of this, rewatch their dominating neutral-site performance against North Carolina and their overtime home win over Rutgers. They looked like two completely different teams in those games.

Their hope for a top seed does not get any better when looking at their on-paper resume. In fact, their KenPom rating, which is sixth in the nation, is the only thing there that makes them worthy of discussion for a top two seed. However, we are yet to experience a year where KenPom ratings are more important than the RPI to the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

Why is Michigan State’s RPI a problem?

With that being said, Michigan State’s RPI currently sits at No. 31 in the nation. Although this is a fine number, it does not put them in consideration for a spot on either of the top two seed lines. Michigan State may get a seeding boost by the committee due to their name recognition and obvious talent but seeding history is not on their side.

When looking at the past seven years, the average RPI of one seeds is 4.03 while the average for two seeds is 6.93. In addition, the lowest RPI to receive one of those seeds is 15, which was a Georgetown team that lost in the first round as a two seed. Lastly, teams that have finished 31st in RPI (not to say Michigan State will finish there) have made the tournament in six of the last seven years with an average seed of 8.33. Valparaiso in 2015-16 was the lone team to miss out on going dancing.

It may be early to start talking about RPI, but Michigan State has some serious work to do in that department. The problem with this is that there are very few opportunities for Michigan State to secure high-quality wins during the rest of the season.

What does their team sheet look like?

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With the new guidelines in place regarding team sheet groups, Michigan State is only 1-3 in Group 1 games this season. Their lone win, of course, was the 18-point neutral-site win over North Carolina. Outside of that, though, the team has missed opportunities against Duke, Ohio State, and Michigan. In addition, there are very limited opportunities remaining for the team to secure high-quality wins.

The Big Ten is clearly in the midst of a down season and there are only three teams (aside from MSU) that would qualify as top wins should they be beaten by Sparty. On the Big Ten schedule, Michigan State got the easy road and only sees Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue each once. They have already had their matchups with the Wolverines and the Buckeyes, going 0-2.

This leaves the team with only one major opportunity left on the schedule to snag a big win. With this being said, even if Sparty does knock off Purdue, they also have to avoid major losses. This means that if Michigan State wants a top-two seed, they will need to go undefeated to end the regular season. Considering the inconsistent play we have seen to this point, that seems unlikely.

What does this mean moving forward?

Simply put, if you are a top seed in the NCAA Tournament this year, you do not want to see Michigan State appear in your region. This is still an incredibly dangerous team, despite where they are seeded. The “Tom Izzo Factor” has separated Michigan State in the past during March and this team has the talent to do that once again. Michigan State will be one of the favorites to win the National Championship this season regardless of where they end up on the bracket.

Next: Bracketology: Latest projected field (Jan. 15)

This team is an absolute lock to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. The question remains what number is attached to their name. The AP poll is completely irrelevant when it comes to seeding and Michigan State’s seed could be a shock to some because of their national ranking throughout the season. As of now, Sparty is at its lowest point in the AP poll all season at No. 9. If Sparty manages to get that high on a seed list (the top three seed), I would be surprised.