Butler is in good shape to reach the NCAA Tournament as long as they compile wins. Can they snag a victory at home over the struggling St. John’s Red Storm?
Matchup: St. John’s Red Storm (10-11, 0-9) at Butler Bulldogs (14-7, 4-4)
Date and time: Saturday, Jan. 27 at 2:30 p.m. ET
TV schedule: Fox Sports 1
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.
What does this game mean to both teams?
After a week of waiting, the Butler Bulldogs will be back in action this weekend. The Bulldogs have had the entire week off after defeating DePaul on the road last Saturday and are looking for more. In this upcoming contest, the team will be in front of their home fans to take on the struggling St. John’s Red Storm. While Butler has tread water at the beginning of conference play with a 4-4 record, St. John’s has stumbled dramatically to a 0-9 start.
For differing reasons, these two teams are both anxious to snag this victory. On the Butler side, they cannot afford to lose a home game like this if they want to reach the NCAA Tournament. The team may be in a comfortable position in our Bracketology with a No. 8 seed now, but that would not be the case if they drop this game. In addition to having high-quality wins over Villanova and Ohio State, Butler’s resume is without a loss outside of Group 1 games. This should be an easy victory for the Dawgs and it would be detrimental to their Big Dance hopes if they took a loss.
For St. John’s, they are just desperate for any victory. With games against Xavier, Duke, and Villanova on the horizon, their losing streak could get much longer if they do not win this one. It is very difficult for any team to come to Hinkle Fieldhouse and defeat Butler. If St. John’s were to win this game, it would be a big surprise that could seriously boost the Red Storm’s confidence.
How can Butler come away with the win?
Butler Bulldogs Basketball
To put it simply, Butler is the more talented team in this game. They will also be playing in front of their home crowd. Because of this, it is not a major surprise to see the Bulldogs as nearly a double-digit favorite over the Red Storm (-9.0). The team is led by two excellent scorers and a solid supporting cast. Both Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin rank near the top of the Big East in terms of scoring this season and are All-Conference caliber players. It would not be a surprise if one or both of the duo end up scoring 20+ against the Red Storm.
In addition, the team has two very solid 3-point shooters to throw on the wing in Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott. While neither is a great threat to erupt for 30 points, they cannot be left open on the perimeter or they will hurt you from any distance. Considering that freshman point guard Aaron Thompson is showing more skills as a floor general with each game he plays, watch out for Butler’s offense to function with fluidity and confidence at home.
Head coach LaVall Jordan has had an entire week to study film on the Red Storm and the team should be incredibly well-prepared. Regardless of the win-loss record of St. John’s, they can be a dangerous team and Butler will not take them lightly. The Bulldogs should be able to get off to an early start, much like they did against DePaul, and ride that lead for the entire 40 minutes.
How can St. John’s come away with the win?
On the flip side, though, Butler has shown defensive breakdowns throughout the season. The Bulldogs are typically one of the more fundamentally sound defensive programs in the nation but that is not the case this year. The team has surrendered 40+ points in a half several times and they rely on their offense to win games. If St. John’s is able to force Butler into tough shots and take advantage on offense then they will stay in the game.
Clearly, the top scoring option for the Johnnies is sophomore Shamorie Ponds. The guard will have a difficult matchup to go against as Butler deploys two top-notch defenders in the backcourt. Yet, there is a reason that Ponds averages 20.0 points per game. He is a scorer who is not afraid of anyone and is willing to attack the basket and shoot from deep. In order for St. John’s to win, he will need to be aggressive and impose his will on Butler’s defenders.
Next: Most recent Big East rankings
In the end, though, the talent level is higher on the Butler side of the ball. The Bulldogs have more star power, balance, and will be playing in front of their home crowd. With Baldwin and Thompson harassing Ponds all afternoon, this could be a fun one for Bulldog fans to watch.
Prediction: Butler 86, St. John’s 74