Butler at Marquette: Game preview, TV schedule, prediction
Butler and Marquette are both sitting in the middle of the Big East. Which team will come out on top to improve their status in the standings?
Matchup: Butler Bulldogs (15-7, 5-4) at Marquette Golden Eagles (13-8, 4-5)
Date and time: Wednesday, January 31 at 9:00 p.m. ET
TV schedule: Fox Sports 1
Location: BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI.
The middle of the Big East is a logjam right now. Xavier and Villanova are the clear top two teams in the conference but there is a mess after that. Each of the next five teams in the rankings can be maneuvered in any direction depending on the night. With that being said, all seven of these top teams found their way into our most recent edition of Bracketology. On the evening of Jan. 31, two of these teams, Butler and Marquette, will do battle in Milwaukee.
In the first meeting between the Bulldogs and the Golden Eagles, the home team reigned supreme as Kelan Martin poured in 37 points to lead the Bulldogs to victory. In that game, the Golden Eagles’ elite backcourt of Andrew Rowsey and Markus Howard struggled to get things going. Sam Hauser‘s 30 points paced Marquette but it was not enough. Butler defended Hinkle Fieldhouse with a 94-83 win.
Related Story: Most recent Big East rankings
In this matchup, Marquette will be looking to return the favor and move into a tie in the Big East standings with Butler.
How can Marquette win this game?
Marquette is only 9-4 at home this season. While this might look like a solid record, it does not represent a tremendous home atmosphere. This is especially true when taken into account that their home record in Group 1/2 games is a measly 2-4. These wins came against Seton Hall and Vermont. In order for the Golden Eagles to win this game, their crowd is going to need to show up to make the Bradley Center an uncomfortable environment for Butler.
On the court, Marquette has plenty of talent to win this game. Led by Howard, Rowsey, and Hauser, the Golden Eagles have one of the best offenses in the country. Per KenPom, Marquette’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks at No. 11 in the nation. They average over 80 points per game as a team and connect on 40.3% of their 3-point shots. These numbers make the Golden Eagles a threat to win any game that they play.
As for Butler’s defense, they rank 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom). This number is somewhat solid but the Bulldogs struggle tremendously in defending the 3-point shot. For the season, Butler is allowing their opponents to shoot 37.7% from three (311th in the nation). In the last meeting between these two teams, Marquette shot 10-for-22 (45.5%) from beyond the arc.
Of course, Marquette’s defensive issues are important to note and that is something that Butler will need to exploit.
How can Butler win this game?
Since joining the Big East, Butler has played extremely well against Marquette. In addition to going an undefeated 4-0 at home, the team has split their four matchups on the road with the Golden Eagles. History may show an advantage to Butler but the Dawgs are only 2-4 in true road games this season. Considering those victories were over Georgetown and DePaul, this potential win over Marquette would represent their best road win of the season.
Our complete coverage: Butler Bulldogs
In order to win this game, Butler’s backcourt will need to show up and dominate defensively. The last matchup between these two teams showcased the elite defensive abilities of Butler’s guards, Aaron Thompson and Kamar Baldwin. The Bulldogs’ overall defense might not have the greatest reputation but these two guards can shut down anyone. Rowsey and Howard are never going to be kept completely quiet for a game but the Butler guards have the ability to mute their impact for extended periods of time.
On the offensive end, Butler has enough firepower to match Marquette. Most notably, senior forward Kelan Martin (19.6 ppg for the season) is the leading scorer in the Big East right now at 22.1 ppg in conference play. Martin is a matchup nightmare at 6’7″ with his ability to shoot from deep as well as attack the basket. Even though he struggled from 3-point range early in the season, the All-Big East performer is 9-for-19 from deep in Butler’s last two games.
Following closely behind Martin, Baldwin (15.9 ppg) and Paul Jorgensen (11.5 ppg) are other top scoring options for the Bulldogs. This trio of players can all shoot from deep while creating for others. When on, Butler is one of the best shooting teams in the nation and it is due to their ball movement and the extended range of their shooters. The Bulldogs might not need to be red-hot from three in order to beat Marquette but they need to shoot the ball well.
Considering Marquette’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks at 138th in the nation, there will be plenty of opportunities for Butler to score.
Next: Where are Marquette and Butler in our projected field?
In the end, I think that this game will come down to two X-factors. For Marquette, Jamal Cain is in the middle of a nice stretch. In the last three games, Cain has averaged 21.3 minutes played while scoring 7.0 points and snagging 4.7 rebounds per game. The fact that he is shooting 50.0% from the field and 37.5% from three is also impressive.
On the flip side, Butler’s key bench player is Henry Baddley. Over his last three games, the sophomore is playing 16.3 minutes per game and contributing 6.0 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. In addition, Baddley brings excellent effort on the defensive end and has shown the ability to be a consistent 3-point shooter this season.
Prediction: Marquette 87, Butler 83.