North Carolina vs. Notre Dame: Game preview, TV schedule, prediction
The ACC has a nice match-up to offer us as the red-hot North Carolina Tar Heels welcome in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Chapel Hill.
TV Schedule: Monday, February 12th, 2018, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Arena: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
North Carolina has been an odd squad to watch over the past month or so. After losing three straight games in late January, they have looked incredibly sharp in beating Pittsburgh, Duke, and North Carolina State. Now, a team that looked primed to finish in the middle of the ACC pack is back near the top. North Carolina is now tied for third in the conference standings with rival Duke.
As for Notre Dame, they have fallen to the bottom of the league due to crippling injuries. We all knew the injury to Bonzie Colson would be detrimental to the team’s success. However, I do not think anyone could have predicted this swift fall from grace. The team lost seven straight ACC games starting in early January. They have since regrouped a little bit by winning their last two games over Boston College and Florida State. Still, the team has dropped seven of their last nine games. One of those losses was to the Tar Heels at home by only one point.
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Notre Dame now sits at 5-7 in the conference, good for 11th in the league. That is certainly not what Irish fans had planned on at the beginning of the season. Given the circumstances, their on-court output is not overly surprising, but the fact that they fell so fast is eye-opening.
Mike Brey’s team is still known for its stout defense, only allowing 68 points per game. While that is not a Virginia-type number, it is nothing to be scoffed at. What is worrisome is their lack of offensive efficiency since Colson went down.
Sure, they do still have fine players like Matt Farrell and T.J. Gibbs, who each average 16 points per game. However, beyond those two, they lack a consistent offensive weapon. Martinas Geben shoots 59% from the field, so why is it that he only averages 10 points a game? Something seems off there. It just seems that Colson’s injury is far too much to overcome for Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish are a decent rebounding team too, but they run into the best rebounding team in the nation in this game, statistically speaking. North Carolina hauls in 43 rebounds per game, tops in the country. Many times, I find that the team that commands the glass is the team who ends up winning. It is clear that the Tar Heels have the advantage in that regard.
Unlike Notre Dame, the Tar Heels feature several offensive weapons. We are used to seeing players like Luke Maye and Joel Berry fill the box score every night. However, Roy Williams often relies on other players to provide offensive support. Both Cameron Johnson and Kenny Williams average in double figures while shooting over 44% from the field. In Williams’ case, he shoots the ball well from 3-point range too, raining shots in at a 41% clip. Not to mention that Theo Pinson provides for the team every single night as well. He may not have eye-popping numbers, but he does a little bit of everything for North Carolina. That gives them a huge leg up in this contest.
Joel Berry iced their game against Notre Dame the last time with a few timely free throws. That Jan. 13 game had the Tar Heels winning by one point on the road. North Carolina won despite being out-rebounded and shot a lower percentage from three. It just came down to free throws in the end.
Do not expect this game to be as close as the first match-up. Yes, Notre Dame has victories in their last two games, but both were to teams that were as good or worse than them. On the other hand, North Carolina has wins over Duke and North Carolina State in the past week. I believe that the Tar Heels have a little more momentum going into the game. Couple that with their home court advantage and I like North Carolina to win their fourth straight game.
Prediction: North Carolina 80, Notre Dame 70.