North Carolina Basketball: Making the argument for a No. 1 seed

In what seems like a yearly affair, it is time to look at where North Carolina basketball stands in terms of snagging a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.

North Carolina basketball has a resume worthy of being a No. 1 seed this season.

This really should not come as a surprise. North Carolina basketball has secured a No. 1 seed in each of the past two seasons and on seven occasions over the past 13 years. The Tar Heels are among the top programs in the country and once again fly that banner this season. They hold a 22-7 (11-5 ACC) record on the year and are looking poised to potentially defend their national title of a season ago.

With each day that passes, North Carolina’s resume looks better and better. Now, with just a few weeks left until Selection Sunday, it is time to start seriously considering the Tar Heels for a No. 1 seed. Here is a look at just how close they are:

Blind Resumes

Before taking an in-depth look at North Carolina’s chances of receiving a top seed, let’s compare their resume with those that are currently on the top line in my Bracketology. However, let’s take away the team names and scramble around their order a bit:

Which four teams would you choose to put on your top line? Take a second, look at the resumes, and decide. Scroll down to the bottom of the article to find out the teams.

Now, in order to determine just how close they are to the top line, let’s analyze each part of their team sheet.

RPI and Strength of Schedule

It is hard to argue with these two. Both North Carolina’s RPI (5) and SOS (2) rank in the top-5 nationally. Although neither of these rankings should be seen as the be-all-end-all, the combination of these high rankings can go a long way. Of the current teams on my No. 1 seed line (Virginia, Kansas, Villanova, Xavier), the only squad to be top-5 in both categories is Xavier. Surprising, right?

It is clear that the Tar Heels rank extremely well on paper in this regard and can easily make an argument for being on the No. 1 line based on RPI and SOS. Of course, there is more to a tournament resume than just these two numbers, though.

Quadrant Records

Diving into quadrant records, once again the Tar Heels grade well. The team holds 10 wins in Q1 at the moment, which is second in the nation only to Kansas, a team currently on my No. 1 line. In the selection committee’s Bracket Preview a few weeks ago, one of the biggest takeaways was their reliance on a high amount of quality wins. If this were a checklist of things needed to be a No. 1 seed, North Carolina can put an “X” in the box for top wins.

However, quadrant records are also where North Carolina has a weakness. The Tar Heels have taken two losses outside of Quadrant 1 and that includes one defeat in a Quadrant 3 matchup. The only team currently on my one line to have two such losses is Kansas, who actually has three (two in Q2, one in Q3). The advantage that the Jayhawks have over the Tar Heels in this case, though, is that Bill Self’s team has seven wins in Quadrant 2 compared to just four by Roy Williams’ squad.

Predictive Metrics

Across the board, North Carolina ranks incredibly well in predictive metrics. The Tar Heels are rated No. 7 in KenPom, No. 8 in BPI, and No. 7 in Sagarin. While these are great, none of them scream No. 1 seed-worthy. However, they are not alone. While Virginia and Villanova dominate these metrics, both Kansas and Xavier also do not hold a ranking in the top-5 at the moment.

Because of this, not having a top-5 ranking in any metric should not turn the committee away from North Carolina’s resume. In fact, the Tar Heels’ rankings are about average for those teams in consideration for a top seed. While other squads like Duke and Michigan State are ahead of them in this regard, Texas Tech and Auburn lag behind North Carolina.

It will be interesting to see how the committee approaches these rankings but UNC should be in good shape no matter how heavily they are weighted.

Eye Test

Obviously, teams evolve over the course of a season. While the entire body of work is what matters most in terms of seeding, North Carolina is a team that has consistently improved throughout the year. The Tar Heels are currently in the midst of a six-game winning streak that has included three road wins over potential tournament teams (NC State, Louisville, Syracuse) in addition to a home win over Duke.

North Carolina is hitting their stride at the right time and will be one of the scariest teams come March Madness if their current trajectory continues. The Tar Heels look every bit of belonging on the No. 1 seed line at the moment. Their placement will depend on the play around them and the committee’s opinion of them, though.

One thing to keep in mind in regards to this is that at least one of the current No. 1 seeds in my bracket will lose a game down the stretch of this season. Due to Villanova and Xavier being in the same conference (Big East), one of them has to lose at some point in their conference tournament. This loss by X or ‘Nova could be the opening that UNC needs to swoop in for a top seed.

Next: Ranking all 32 conference tournaments

Despite all these arguments, I still find it hard to put North Carolina on the top line due to being slightly behind the teams already there. However, it is fair to say the Tar Heels have a compelling argument for being a No. 1 seed for the third consecutive season this year. With plenty of time left in the season to move up, watch out for the Tar Heels to be announced as a top seed on Selection Sunday.

Here are the teams from the blind resume earlier: A is Xavier, B is North Carolina, C is Virginia, D is Kansas, and E is Villanova. UNC is closer than you thought, right?