Butler basketball has won their last two games in impressive fashion. Even though they destroyed St. John’s earlier this year, beating them on the road will be difficult.
Matchup: Butler (19-10, 9-7) at St. John’s (14-15, 3-13)
Date and time: 9:00 p.m. ET on Feb. 28
TV Schedule: CBS Sports Network
Location: Carnesecca Arena in Queens, NY
The battle for third place in the Big East Conference is a fierce one. With each team down to their final game or two in the regular season, four teams sit poised to potentially snag the third-place slot in the league. While Creighton moved ahead into sole position with a win on Feb. 27, they only hold a half-game lead over the other three teams, who have not played their 18th conference game yet.
On Feb. 28, all three of the other squads are in action. While Seton Hall and Providence will have their hands full with Villanova and Xavier, respectively, Butler will be taking on a challenge of their own in the form of the St. John’s Red Storm. Even though Chris Mullin’s team has been disappointing in conference play, they have seen a resurgence as of late, snagging wins over Duke, Villanova, and Marquette.
It will not be easy for the Bulldogs to walk out of Carnesecca Arena with a win but they should have the confidence to do so. In the last meeting between these two teams, Butler eviscerated St. John’s at Hinkle Fieldhouse, 70-45. Bulldog guards Aaron Thompson and Kamar Baldwin were excellent in that game in holding Shamorie Ponds, the second-leading scorer in the conference, to just two points on 0-for-12 shooting. Can they pull that off again?
Here are three keys for the Bulldogs as they head into their penultimate game of the regular season.
1. Keep Ponds in check
Quite simply, Shamorie Ponds is one of the best scorers in the Big East Conference. He currently ranks second in the league in points per game (only trails Kelan Martin) and can score from anywhere on the floor. In addition, the man has been red-hot as of late. However, he has struggled when matched up with elite defensive guards.
In Shamorie Ponds’ three matchups with Creighton (Khyri Thomas) and Butler (Thompson + Baldwin), he is averaging just 6.3 points per game on 8-for-37 (21.6%) from the field. In every other game this season, the Red Storm’s star is at 23.5 points per game on 43.3% shooting.
2. Jorgensen must remain the spark plug
Since being relegated to the bench for the past two games, Paul Jorgensen has seen a resurgence. During those wins over Providence and Creighton, the junior guard has put up 14.5 points per game on 12-for-18 (66.7%) from the field and 3-for-5 (60.0%) from three. In the three games prior to this role shift, “Paulie” had been shooting 25.0% from the floor (7.7% from three) for just 4.3 points per game.
With Sean McDermott now holding down the starting spot, Jorgensen is able to play freely off the bench and assert himself on the offensive end. In addition, his infectious energy and defensive effort make the entire bench unit better. He will need to provide that same boost in this game.
3. Make free throws
This seems simple but it is not always. In crunch time, free throws are incredibly important as they can be the difference between winning and losing. Around the country, poor free throw shooting teams struggle to finish off potential wins, especially on the road. As this projects to be a close game, Butler could find itself at the line in the final minutes looking to ice a big victory away from home.
Thankfully, the Bulldogs are one of the best foul shooting teams in the nation. Of the eight players who have attempted more than 20 total free throws this season for Butler, six of them shoot over 80%. Star player Kelan Martin leads the way in this category with his blistering 87.7% mark from the line. The team’s numbers are brought down by Aaron Thompson’s poor 53.6% (37-for-69) shooting but still rank well. As a team, the Bulldogs are 13th in the country in foul shooting at 77.6%.
Next: Bracketology: Where is Butler?
As a final summary of this matchup, Butler has the clear talent advantage. They have the best player in the game in Kelan Martin (sorry, Ponds) and have the better supporting cast. While I am not expecting the type of blowout Butler put on St. John’s in the last meeting between these two teams, I think the road team prevails.
This strikes me as the type of game where the Red Storm hangs around in a single-digit game for the first 35 minutes and then the Bulldogs pull away down the stretch behind their stars.
Final prediction: Butler 78, St. John’s 71.