There might not be many western teams to watch in the Big Dance this year. Is that because of east coast bias, or is basketball out west bad this year?
If the NCAA Tournament were to start today, there wouldn’t be too many teams representing the western side of the country.
Which begs the question, are there just not as many good teams on that side of the USA, or is “east coast bias” real?
Right now, there are only ten teams out west who would have a legitimate chance at an at-large berth. By western teams, we’re looking at teams from conferences that are mainly on the west coast or intermountain west.
With that in mind, there’s six teams from the PAC-12, two from the WCC, and two from the MWC.
Let’s take a look at where they stack up:
*For an explanation of the tiers, see here.
Among the surprises: No. 7 Gonzaga is predicted as a five seed in nearly every major bracketology. No. 22 St. Mary’s sits as a ten seed in most predictions. And only three PAC-12 teams are predicted to make the tournament as of right now.
How Many Get In?
To be fair, there’s a lot of teams from the Conference of Champions just barely on the outside looking in, so there could be a few more that make the tournament, but compare that to the number of teams from other major conferences that are currently projected to be in by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
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The PAC-12 would be the least-represented major conference, and the ACC would have three times as many teams in the Big Dance.
With so many western teams on the bubble, let’s compare their resumes to a few other teams that are on the bubble.
The PAC-12 teams don’t suffer from a lack of top-tier games, but they’ve beaten on each other and created parity. With no elite teams emerging except Arizona, no other team has a resume that sticks out bubble schools from other conferences.
Boise State, on the other hand, suffers from that lack of top-tier games. They’ve got the best record among these bubble teams between Tier 1 and Tier 2 games, but they haven’t played enough of them to raise their RPI and put any “wow” in their resume.
What About Seeding?
Looking at the teams that are pretty safe bets for at-large bids, are the western teams seeded fairly?
Let’s look toward the top:
Each team has an impressive resume, but each one has a glaring deficiency too.
Arizona has played a tough schedule, but their Tier 1 and Tier 2 record is middling. Clemson has a horrid record in Tier 1 games, but they don’t have a single bad loss on the season.
Gonzaga has played too many teams in the bottom tiers, but they’ve done well against the top competition they’ve faced. Same thing for Nevada, not enough top-tier games to stand out.
Looking a little bit farther down the seeding:
Arizona State is in the tournament thanks to a few high-profile wins early in the season. If it weren’t for that, they’d be squarely on the bubble. The same thing goes for Virginia Tech, a few big wins are their saving grace.
St. Mary’s, on the other hand, has played a horribly light schedule. With only two Tier 1 games and five in the top two tiers combined, they haven’t shown enough of a sample size against quality opponents.
All three of these teams could still be sweating it come Selection Sunday if they have one or two bad losses the rest of the way.
Bias or Bad Basketball?
If there’s any bias in current tournament predictions, it has very little to do with the region. The PAC-12 teams have shown too much parity and not enough separation. When all of the conference’s bubble teams have nearly identical resumes, none are going to stick out to the selection committee.
And if there is a bias when it comes to seeding, it would lean toward major vs. mid-major conferences rather than east vs. west. Teams like Gonzaga and Nevada are hurt by their lack of top-tier wins, even though they’ve taken care of business pretty well when they’ve had the chance.
Next: Ranking all 32 Conference Tournaments
Is there east coast bias? It doesn’t look like there’s any so far.
Is it bad basketball out west? Not bad basketball, but not standout basketball either.