Syracuse Basketball: Is the Orange being over-hyped for 2018-19?

Syracuse Basketball went to the Sweet Sixteen last year and a lot is expected for the 2018-19 season. However, is the Orange being overhyped?

Usually when a team wins 23 games, goes to the Sweet Sixteen, has every meaningful rotation returning, and a top 50 recruiting class, the expectations and projections of that team for the upcoming year are even higher. That may not be the case for the Syracuse Orange in 2018-19.

Last season the Orange won 23 games and did make the Sweet Sixteen, but even that run may not be all it seems, as they finished 10^th in the ACC at 8-10 and were handled easily in the 2^nd round of the ACC tournament by North Carolina. Despite the conference record and early exit, head coach Jim Boeheim’s team and their vaunted 2-3 zone earned a bid to the tournament as one of the last four at-large teams. The Orange then proceeded to defeat Arizona State, TCU, and Michigan State by a total of 11 points, before falling to Duke in the Sweet Sixteen 69-65.

The Orange do return their top five scorers who played in all 37 games last season. Tyus Battle returns after testing the NBA waters, he along with Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett was the only players to average double figures,49.5 combined, for a team that averaged just 67 per game, having those three back in the fold was a big deal. Boeheim landed the 41^st best recruiting class in the country that includes his son Buddy, a 6-5 shooting guard, Robert Braswell, a 6-9 power forward and Jalen Carey, a 6-3 combo guard, who is a top 60 recruit nationally.

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Unfortunately for Orange fans, what happened last season may have been a mirage and here’s why.

First and foremost, the NCAA selection committee continually beats the drum that they want teams to challenge themselves during the non-conference portion of their schedules, and to do so either on the road or at neutral sites.

For years in the Boeheim era, Syracuse has been notorious for relying on their conference slates to build their tournament resume, whether it was as a member of the Big East or now the ACC. As an example, last season the only time the Orange left the state of New York before January 3^rd was to travel to Georgetown, a game they needed overtime to win. In fact, over the past five seasons, besides trips to Maui and the Bahamas, Syracuse has left the state of New York for a true road game just five times, two of which were to Georgetown. In that time, they lost at Wisconsin, Michigan and Villanova, which means over the last five seasons the only true road games Syracuse has won are at Georgetown last season and at St. John’s in 2013.

It’s not just the schedule, while the Orange were fantastic statically on defense last season, ranking 10^th in points allowed at 63.8, 5^th in field-goal percentage defense at 39.1, 22^ndin three-point field goal defense at 31.8, and 9^th in blocked shots per game at 5.4, they were nearly as bad offensively. They ranked 317^th nationally offensively at just 66.6 points per contest, they shot just 41.7% from the field and 31.8% from three, while ranking 338^th out of 351 teams in assists per game, just 10.7. Statistically, the Orange was equal parts good and bad, and even though a team plays fantastic defense, if they are unable to separate themselves from their opponent it will always leave them more susceptible to potential upsets, ask Virginia.

Next: Analyzing Syracuse's rotation for 2018-19

While the old sports adage, “defense never slumps” may be true, the fact still remains a team must score more points than the other to win. Syracuse did have a successful season but unless they find a way to make a leap or two offensively, it may be difficult to repeat the smoke and mirrors routine that got them to the Sweet Sixteen last season.

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