Michigan State Basketball looks like a Final Four contender for the 2018-19 season. If they make it that far, it’ll be because of junior star guard Cassius Winston.
Michigan State Basketball was regarded as a national title contender all of last season but never lived up to expectations. The Spartans fell in the Round of 32 to Syracuse, a game in which they were plagued by the problem that had trailed them all year: Turnovers.
In the loss to the Orange, Tom Izzo’s squad had a Turnover Rate (TO Rate) of 23.3% per KenPom. The Spartans finished the season with a TO Rate of 19.2%, which ranked 236th in the country. It was the main weakness for a team that fared well in most other areas of the game.
Although Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson departed for the NBA, much of the Spartans statistical profile has remained similar (and impressive) this season (see Assist Rate, 3PA Rate, 3-point %).
The significant difference, however, is the improvement in Offensive TO Rate from 19.2% (236th) to 17.7% (106th). This has contributed to MSU’s offensive rank rising from 13th to 3rd this season.
So what has caused this improvement in TO Rate? When I dove into the stats, I found that MSU’s returning players have posted roughly similar turnover rates compared to last season. The one exception was Cassius Winston.
Winston has posted great assist numbers since joining MSU. He’s the main reason the Spartans have the #1 assist rate in the nation. This season, he’s assisting on 43.7% of MSU’s baskets when he’s on the floor.
The junior turned the ball over on 22.6% of his possessions in 2017-18. This TO Rate would have been poor for a team as a whole, but wasn’t bad for a guy that was asked to create offense as much as he was.
Still, there was room for Winston to take his distributing from a “great” to an “elite” level, and he has done just that this season. He’s kept his Assist Rate steady at 43.7% (5th in the nation), and his TO Rate has improved from 22.6% to 14.2%.
In fact, since the 2009-2010 season, only five other players have finished a season with an Assist and TO Rate equal or better to what Winston is doing this season (and averaged >= 20 minutes per game).
Tom Izzo seems to have given Winston the freedom to push the pace. The Spartans have increased their pace of play from 234th last season to 70th this season. Winston is definitely taking advantage of this; he’s been thriving as a playmaker on the fast break.
Credit to
for all GIFS
The point guard is fully capable of operating in the half-court as well.
Winston is the driving force behind what’s been a great Spartans offense. And did I mention he’s shooting 45.7% (37-81) from three as well? Quite a season thus far for the junior.
(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Jan 4).
Michigan State has a good shot at not only winning the Big Ten but making another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. It’ll be on the back of Winston, who has elevated into one of the best point guards in the country.