Auburn vs Mississippi State: 2018-19 College basketball game preview, TV schedule

Auburn and Mississippi State have struggled in SEC play, but which team will grab an important conference win on Saturday night?

TV schedule: Saturday, January 26, 8:30 pm ET. SEC Network

Arena: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi

Coming into the season with big expectations, Auburn (13-5) has hit a bit of a rough patch in their season. They entered the year looking to build on their SEC regular season title, but sit currently at just 2-3 in conference play, dropping games at home against #12 Kentucky and at South Carolina in the past week. Bruce Pearl has completely revitalized this program, but a road game against a ranked conference foe could easily sink their season further.

Guards Bryce Brown (16.9 ppg) and Jared Harper (15.3 ppg, 6.6 apg) are the two scorers to watch for the Tigers, while Harper is also a top-level ball distributor. These two can both hit 3’s and one of them has led the team in scoring for each of their SEC games. Unfortunately, Auburn will be without center Austin Wiley (10.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg) for the third straight game, meaning the younger, less-experienced big men will need to step up in a harsh road environment. Expect forward Chuma Okeke (10.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg) to have a solid game in Wiley’s absence.

The Tigers boast a team that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, but this isn’t to say their defense isn’t also solid. While just 62nd in defensive efficiency, the Tigers are the #1 team in the nation at defensive turnover percentage. Many of their role players have very solid steal numbers. Additionally, this is a top 5 team in the country when it comes to offensive rebounding, though that number falls a bit without Wiley in the lineup.

On the home side of the court, Mississippi State (14-4) also looks to build on last year’s step forward to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in ten years. Ben Howland has similarly recharged this program and his Bulldogs avoided any upsets in non-conference play, their sole loss in a neutral-site game against Arizona State. Similar to the Tigers, the Bulldogs sit at 2-3 in conference play, having just suffered a 21-point loss at Kentucky on Tuesday and really needing a win to turn things back around.

Senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon (16.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is the player to watch for the Bulldogs. He’s led the team in scoring in many of their games and was the lone offensive bright spot at Kentucky. Senior forward Aric Holman (11.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is the Bulldog’s leading rebounder, leads the team in blocks, and can step out and knock down the 3-pointer as well. He’s had a few standout games (28 points against BYU last month) and takes some of the pressure off the Weatherspoon’s, as Nick Weatherspoon (10.2 ppg) is another scorer to watch.

Despite the lackluster performance against the Wildcats, Howland’s team has a top 25 offensive unit and the team ranks near the top of the league in offensive rebounding and shooting efficiency as well. Similar to the Tigers, these Bulldogs don’t have a top-rated defense, but they’ve held decent teams like Dayton and Cincinnati under 60 points this season.

These were two programs with high expectations in SEC play, though a pair of 2-3 starts represents a clear disappointment. These are two teams that have spent much of the year ranked, but that top 25 status could be in jeopardy with their recent string of losses. Neither team really has momentum entering this game, but both teams do have potent offenses and we could be in store for an exciting game with some offensive fireworks.

For the Tigers, finding a way to win on the road without Wiley won’t be easy, and the team will lean heavily on Brown and Harper and their other guards. Forcing the Bulldogs into empty possessions early will be key, while they really need a great game from Okeke and the other big men down low. For the Bulldogs, containing those Auburn guards will be their big assignment on defense. If they can shut down Brown or Harper, then they’ll significantly limit the Tigers offensive attack. Neither team defends the 3 very well and this game could spiral into a shootout if either team catches fire from the outside. A fast start will be key both ways, as the Tigers can’t afford to let this Bulldogs crowd get revved up.

I do expect that the loss of Wiley will be too much for Auburn to handle and that the Bulldogs will pull out the win, but this is going to be a hard-fought game on both sides.

Prediction: Mississippi State 86, Auburn 81