The Big Ten regular-season title, or at least part of it, is on the line this Saturday when Michigan heads to fierce in-state neighbor, Michigan State.
TV schedule: Saturday, March 9, 8:00 pm ET. ESPN.
Arena: Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich.
One of college basketball’s most-heated rivalries resumes this Saturday evening, as a pair of top-10 heavyweights go toe to toe for Big Ten Conference supremacy. No. 7 Michigan (26-4, 15-4) is traveling to No. 9 Michigan State (24-6, 15-4), with an unbelievable amount of ramifications involved.
This epic duel at the Breslin Center is the final regular-season contest for both crews, and the winner of this encounter will capture, at the minimum, a share of the league’s regular-season crown. That’s because the Wolverines, the Spartans and No. 11 Purdue are in a three-way tie for first place at the top of the Big Ten standings. The Boilermakers, we should note, are at Northwestern on Saturday. If Purdue falls in that match-up, whichever group succeeds between Michigan State and Michigan is your outright conference regular-season champion. Fun, fun, fun!
There’s plenty more at stake, too. For example, in late February, the Spartans went to Ann Arbor, Mich., albeit without two of their premier scorers, and Michigan State still got the job done versus the Wolverines, 77-70, before a stunned Crisler Center crowd. That result, undoubtedly, has Michigan steamed and desperately looking to exact revenge against the Spartans on their turf.
This affair, and the subsequent Big Ten Tournament, are also quite important for March Madness. As it currently stands, the Spartans and the Wolverines are projected as No. 2 seeds in the field of 68, although either of them could certainly make a legitimate case for a top seed should it achieve the league’s regular- and post-season titles.
The Spartans are No. 8 in the NCAA NET ratings, with a strong 14-1 record at home. The Wolverines, meanwhile, is No. 9 in the NCAA NET system and has a 7-3 mark in true road games.
Michigan State is the superior offensive outfit, averaging nearly 80 points, and the Wolverines hang their hat on defense, allowing just about 58 points. The Spartans are more proficient with their shooting percentages from the field, from the free-throw line, and from downtown, and they also hold advantages in rebounding, assists and blocks. On the flip side, the Wolverines has an edge in steals, and the Wolverines take better care of the ball, committing approximately 9 turnovers every 40 minutes, versus 13 for the Spartans.
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index anoints the Spartans as a large favorite to prevail, at 71.8 percent. That’s logical, since the teams are suiting up in East Lansing. The Wolverines will prove one tough customer for Michigan State to conquer, however, my gut tells me that Sparty will emerge victorious by a handful of points.
Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Michigan 72