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NCAA Tournament 2019: Villanova, LSU favorites in Round of 32 matchups

By Jacob Zinkula

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 15: Carsen Edwards #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers walks across the court in the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 15, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 15: Carsen Edwards #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers walks across the court in the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 15, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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On Saturday, 16 teams will be vying for trips to the Sweet 16. Here are some things to keep in mind heading into two of the more intriguing NCAA Tournament matchups: Maryland-LSU and Villanova-Purdue.

Maryland vs. LSU

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and Haslametrics and are up to date through the games completed on Mar 22.).

Spread: LSU-2

KenPom projection: LSU -1

LSU’ s Advantage

As I covered here, Maryland’s weakness all season has been turnovers. The Terrapins are 241st in limiting turnovers per KenPom, and many of their losses this season have been especially bad in this regard. On the other hand, LSU is 67th in the nation in forcing turnovers, presenting a bit of a challenge for Maryland.

Maryland’s Advantage

LSU is 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding, but is only 263rd in defensive rebounding. At 34th in defensive rebounding, the Terrapins should be able to limit the Tigers on the offensive glass. Even better, at 25th in offensive rebounding, Maryland should fare well on the offensive boards.

Prediction

Even if Will Wade had been coaching, the Yale upset pick over LSU had some logic to it. But from what I could tell, the “Wade factor” was being played up a little too much. Now that the Tigers have gotten a game under their belts, I’m even less worried about this.

LSU-2

Villanova vs. Purdue

Spread: Purdue-4

KenPom projection: Purdue-5

Purdue’s Advantage

I couldn’t find a clear matchup advantage in favor of the Boilermakers, but in the end, they should just be the better team. They’re currently 10th in KenPom vs. 26th for Villanova. The Wildcats have been up-and-down all season (see losses to Furman, Penn) and as I touched on here, defending national champions haven’t historically fared super well in the tourney. Additionally, the Big East has been down all season, and Marquette/Seton Hall already fell on Thursday.

Villanova’s Advantage

The Wildcats attempt  53.2% of shots from three, the 4th highest rate in the nation. As a result, Saint Mary’s posed a difficult matchup for Villanova, as the Gaels allow the 9th fewest 3PA in the nation. The Wildcats shot 40% from three but only got up 20 attempts (8-20) versus the ~30 attempts they’ve averaged per game. In comparison, Purdue allows the 300th most 3PA’s per game and is only average in terms of three-point percentage defense.

Prediction

Heading into the tournament, Purdue lost two of three games (both to Minnesota), which has made me cautious about backing the Boilermakers. Additionally, Carsen Edwards has struggled quite a bit with his shot lately, and if it happens again, I’m not sure the Boilermakers will be able to overcome it.

Not only has Villanova been playing well lately, I think the tough matchup Saint Mary’s has made the Wildcats’ win a bit underrated. One last factor: Purdue was one of three poor “Away From Home” teams per Haslametrics I highlighted here (along with Auburn and Gonzaga), and I’ve been keeping this in mind for a while.

Next. Non-tournament teams building for the future. dark

Villanova +4

Looking ahead, if LSU were to face Michigan State in the Sweet 16, their ability to turn teams over could come in handy again. Like Maryland, the Spartans can have some turnover issues of their own. Regarding Villanova, I wouldn’t like their chances at all to down Tennessee in a hypothetical Sweet 16 matchup.

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