Michigan State vs Duke: 3 Key storylines for Elite Eight battle

Lets examine three important story lines heading into this blue blood match up between the Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 1-11 against Duke in his tenure as the Spartans leader but he hopes to change that in Washington D.C. The Blue Devils with their highly talented freshmen look to advance to the Final Four in their attempt to win a national title. Here is a look at the three key story lines for the game.

1. Discrepancy in 3-point shooting

Michigan State is 26th out of 353 teams in Division 1 and Duke is 330th in three-point shot percentage. Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, Kenny Goins, Aaron Henry, and the emergence of Gabe Brown are all capable of making three pointers for the Spartans against Duke.

As the statistics show, Duke struggles from beyond the three-point arch. Michigan State is however, is unlikely to run a zone defense daring the Blue Devils to take many three pointers. Coach Izzo’s signature pack line man to man defense  however will attempt to clog up the middle  of the paint and prevent Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett from driving to the basket and forcing Duke to take more outside shots.

There wasn’t a great statistical advantage that Central Florida and Virginia Tech had over Duke in made three pointers but both Virginia Tech and especially Central Florida dared Duke to take three pointers in the hope that the Blue Devils would miss more than they make and that they could get the defensive rebound. Look for Michigan State to do the same but the Spartans are a better three-point shooting team than both the Hokies and Golden Knights. Duke would need to make adjustments defensively if Michigan State starts making their three-point attempts early in the game.

2. Defensive rebounding is a weakness for Duke as it is a strength for Michigan State

There is no disputing that Williamson can rebound well for the Blue Devils. However, Duke does not have a big man outside Williamson who is a consistent defensive rebounding specialist.

Michigan State and Izzo pride itself of their ability to rebound and they made it their top priority against LSU and it showed on the court. There was a big discrepancy in the offense rebound margin as evidence between the Spartans in Tigers in their Sweet Sixteen match up that greatly benefited Michigan State in their 17 point victory over the Tigers.

Central Florida which lost to Duke by one point used their overall height advantage to give them opportunities to out rebound the Blue Devils at various times throughout the game. Duke doesn’t need to win in the rebounding margin category to win but they can’t play the same way they did against Virginia Tech and Central Florida and beat the Spartans. Look for Michigan State to go after Williamson on the offensive end to get him in early foul trouble.

3. Supporting cast help will be key for Duke and Michigan State

If Cam Reddish is hurt and unable to play against the Spartans, only Tre Jones 9.6 points per game averages more than 6.0 ppg for Duke other than Williamson and Barrett. This is significant because Duke’s top two scores could combine for over 40 points and still lose. If a role player doesn’t step up to help out the two leading scorers like Jones has done against other top-tier opponents, then the Spartans can beat the Blue Devils due to Michigan State’s ability to score in the 80’s.

The Spartans have shown more balance scoring but no player that is 100% healthy other than Winston is averaging double digits in scoring. With Joshua Langford injured and Nick Ward not fully healthy, Xavier Tillman and Matt McQuaid are the 4th and 5th leading scorers on the season both averaging under ten points a game. Michigan State needs scoring from Kenny Goins or a Gabe Brown type of player to out score the Blue Devils. The good news is the offensive emergence of Aaron Henry put Michigan State in good shape to beat the Blue Devils.

Looking at all three story lines, it appears that Michigan State has the advantage over Duke. However, the Blue Devils have NBA talent on their roster and the Spartans must find a way to limit Williamson from scoring 30 plus points. It should be a great match up between two storied programs and hall of fame coaches.