Maryland Basketball: Can Anthony Cowan lead Terrapins to promise land?

Expectations are high for Maryland basketball, as the program returns a lot from last season. How far the team rises, however, will depend on Anthony Cowan.

Mark Turgeon’s Maryland Basketball squad will likely enter the 2019-20 season in the top ten of the AP Poll. Coming off a strong tournament performance in which the 6-seed Terrapins beat 11-seed Belmont and fell just short against 3-seed LSU, the team will return 83.3 percent of minutes per Barttorvik.

(Credit to KenPom, sports-reference and Barttorvik for statistics and Big Ten Network for GIFS)

Notable returning players will include senior guard Anthony Cowan, sophomore forward Jalen Smith, sophomore guard Eric Ayala, junior guard Darryl Morsell and sophomore guard Aaron Wiggins.

Smith had a promising freshmen season in which he showcased solid mobility, was a strong finisher around the basket, and even flashed some shooting ability.

At 6-5, 6-5 and 6-6 respectively, Ayala, Morsell, and Wiggins provide athleticism and versatility on the wing. Morsell is more of a slasher than shooter, Wiggins is more of a shooter than slasher, and Ayala is pretty good at both.

While this trio provides some ball-handling and playmaking, the lion’s share of the responsibility last season went to Cowan. This will likely be the case this upcoming season as well, which is why he’s probably the team’s most important player.

Not only is Cowan’s role important when he’s on the floor, he’s on the floor A LOT. He played 86.7 percent of potential minutes last season (34.6 mpg), which ranked 107th in the nation per KenPom. He was able to play such heavy minutes by staying out of foul trouble, averaging only 2.6 fouls per 40 minutes. Even more impressively, Cowan has managed to play all these minutes without suffering injuries. In fact, he’s NEVER missed a game in his college career.

Turnovers have at times been a problem for Cowan and Maryland as a whole, but he’s shown some improvement over the last few seasons. His turnover percentage has improved from 20.0 percent to 17.1 percent to 15.8 percent, while maintaining his assist rate and scoring output.

In 2018-19, only 11 players met each of the following criteria, with Cowan being one of them (per sports-reference):

1. At least 15.6 points per game

2. At least 26.1 assist percentage

3. Less than or equal to 15.8 turnover percentage

4. At least 34.6 minutes per game

Although Cowan should have some scoring help next season, he will likely still be counted on to be the “go-to” scorer at times. The rising senior is a talented offensive player, but his percentages fell off a bit last season as his usage increased a bit: 2-point percentage fell from 46.4 percent to 44.5 percent and 3-point percentage fell from 36.7 percent to 33.7 percent.

Along with hoping for improved percentages, Cowan should make a concerted effort to get to the foul line more next season, where he’s shot 81.1 percent over his career. This is something he’s been elite at in the past. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, Cowan ranked 20th and 66th nationally in free throw attempt rate.

It can’t be understated how impressive this was, as the vast majority of players at the top of these rankings were much larger than Cowan’s 6-0 (bigger players tend to get more foul shots). His freshman season (2016-17), only one player 6-0 or under had a higher free throw rate (Robert Morris’ Kavon Stewart). His sophomore season (2017-18), the number was only seven.

Cowan’s free throw rate was still impressive last season (469th in nation), but there was still a bit of a drop-off. His heavy minutes workload surely made getting to the line (which can require a lot of energy) a bit more difficult. At the same time, however, Cowan managed a high free throw rate his sophomore season despite a similar minutes load. If he makes a concerted effort to get to the line more next season, I think this is something he’s fully capable of.

Cowan will have a lot of responsibility on the offensive end, but it’s also worth mentioning he’s capable of providing pesky defense on opposing ball-handlers. This sets the tone for the rest of the team on that end of the floor.

“Veteran guards win in March.” If this axiom is indeed true, then Maryland should be in good shape with Anthony Cowan at the helm. He’s a solid scorer, distributor, and defender, and will want to redeem himself after a so-so NCAA tournament. It shouldn’t be shocking if Cowan leads the Terrapins deep into the tournament next season.