Michigan State Basketball: How Xavier Tillman rejuvenated the Spartans

Michigan State Basketball’s Xavier Tillman has played well all season, but the junior has taken his game to the next level as of late.

Tom Izzo and Michigan State Basketball came into the season ranked No. 1 overall, but after losses to Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke dropped them to 5-3 on the season, many understandably began second-guessing the team’s status as a title contender. It wasn’t just that the Spartans dropped these games, but the Cassius Winston-led offense struggled at times to generate quality looks.

(Credit to KenPom for statistics and Big Ten Network and ESPN for GIFS)

Things have taken a turn for the better lately, however. Michigan State has won seven straight games, with the last two victories coming in impressive fashion against Illinois (76-56) and Michigan (87-69).

Are the Spartans “back”? Whereas they looked like a borderline top-20 team at times earlier this season, Michigan State looks to be firmly back at least the top 10-15 level. But top 5? Probably not yet, as the Illinois and Michigan victories both came at home, and the Wolverines were without a key piece in Isaiah Livers. It’s also still uncertain whether the Spartans have enough offensive firepower accompanying Cassius Winston. With Xavier Tillman’s recent play, however, this question may become less of a concern.

Xavier Tillman’s Pick-and-Roll Progress

Michigan State’s offense includes a heavy dosage of Cassius Winston pick-and-rolls (P&R’s). Since the senior guard is one of the best playmakers in the country, defenses tend to send two players at him on these plays, trying to force the ball out of his hands.

Tillman has been the primary screener on P&R’s this season, with his defender being the second guy coming at Winston. This means he’s been open often, and Winston has responded by feeding him.

Tillman has had sparks of excellence on these plays all season. Early on, however, he seemed to still be getting comfortable in his expanded offensive role, particularly his new playmaking responsibilities. It’s hard to blame him, as the junior hasn’t been asked to be a “creator” much over the course of his career. Last season, Tillman had greater than one assist in only 14/39 games.

How did this lack of comfort manifest itself early on? Tillman seemed to “pick-and-pop” to the 3-point line a bit too much at the expense of rolling to the basket. The forward has at times appeared hesitant to take the 3-point shot, however.

Considering Tillman shot only 8-27 (29.6%) from long-range in 2018-19 and 3-15 (20.0%) the first eight games of this season, this hesitancy makes sense. Catching and driving to the basket would have been a  decent strategy, but Tillman didn’t do this enough either. Too often, he “froze,” eventually giving up the ball and forcing the offense to reset.

In Michigan State’s seven-game winning streak, however, Tillman has become a more effective P&R player, and it’s reignited the Spartans offense. What’s changed?

First, when Tillman’s “popped” to the 3-point line, he’s become more confident with his jump shot (getting a few shots to fall surely has helped). The junior has shot 6-11 in the last seven games and is up to 34.6% on the season. This recent hot-streak won’t be sustainable, but Tillman’s emergence as a long-range threat makes the offense more dynamic.

When he’s not been taking the jumper, he’s been more active as a passer and driver (the second sequence is particularly impressive).

Michigan State’s key adjustment though, is that Tillman seems to have traded some “pick-and-pops” in favor of more rolls to the basket. Unsurprisingly, Winston’s been able to find him for some easy buckets.

“Short-Roll” Progression

When the two defenders come at Winston aggressively, it can be harder for him to run “traditional” P&R’s (see above). To combat this, he gets rid of the ball earlier, finding Tillman on the “short-roll.”

When Tillman receives the ball, the Spartans are in a “4 on 3” situation in which the offense has a numbers advantage. If Tillman can be an effective playmaker, the Spartans should get solid looks in these situations more often than not.

Tillman’s gotten more comfortable on these plays, posting greater than one assist in all but one game this season (opener against Kentucky). Not only has he attacked the basket more, but as defenses are drawn to him, he’s been effectively finding open shooters.

The forward posted a career-high six assists against Illinois, adding 19 points and seven rebounds. Against Michigan, he recorded 20 points, eight boards and a career-high six blocks. His three assists against the Wolverines were offset by five turnovers, but these should just be seen as natural growing pains as Tillman develops as a playmaker. Not every game will be exceptional, but if the Spartans want to compete for a title, Tillman will need to thrive in this role.

Finding open shooters is only is half the battle, however. Michigan State’s long-term success may ultimately come down to whether its role players can knock down shots. Aaron Henry (14-41, 34.1%), Gabe Brown (18-52, 34.6%), Rocket Watts (9-38, 23.7%) and Kyle Ahrens (11-31, 35.5%) will be the key shooters to track.

Since getting more comfortable in an expanded offensive role, Xavier Tillman has played at a borderline All-American level lately. Michigan State might not be the “No. 1” team its preseason ranking suggested (yet), but they seem to have made some sort of breakthrough.