No. 16 Michigan State will travel to No. 20 Penn State on Tuesday as the Spartans seek revenge and the Nittany Lions jockey for a better position in the Big Ten Conference standings.
Who: Michigan State Spartans (20-9, 12-6) at Penn State Nittany Lions (21-8, 11-7)
When: Tuesday, March 3, at 7 p.m. EST
Where: Bryce Jordan Center in University Park, Pennsylvania
TV Schedule: ESPN
After underperforming at the start of the season, after losing three consecutive games in the first week of February, after becoming the first preseason No. 1 team to drop out of the AP Top 25 poll since 2013-14, the No. 16 Michigan State Spartans are finally looking like the team many people thought they would be.
Michigan State toppled No. 9 Maryland on Saturday to move within one game of the top of the Big Ten standings. Coach Tom Izzo has his team playing its best basketball of the season heading into March, and the Spartans now have a legitimate shot to capture at least a share of their conference’s regular-season title.
First, they’ll have to get through the No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions, who won at the Breslin Center in early February behind 24 points and seven rebounds from star forward Lamar Stevens.
Michigan State will ride a three-game winning streak into Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Since their initial loss to Penn State almost a month ago, the Spartans have knocked off Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa and Maryland. Penn State will enter the matchup having lost three of its last four.
Penn State won’t be an easy beat for Michigan State — especially at the Bryce Jordan Center, where the Nittany Lions are 14-2. But Izzo hasn’t lost twice to any team this season. If Saturday’s revenge win over Maryland is any indication of Izzo’s ability to prepare, then he’ll have his Spartans ready for Tuesday’s rematch in University Park.
According to CBS Sports senior writer Matt Norlander, Izzo stayed up past 4 a.m. studying film after his team’s first defeat to Maryland, when a late 14-0 run propelled the Terrapins to victory.
Izzo spent the night splicing together clips from seven of his team’s nine losses, most of which were close down the stretch, according to Norlander. The montage showed how turnovers, poor rebounding and bad shots cost the team in those games.
Since Izzo showed his players those clips, Michigan State has won three games in a row. A payback victory over the Nittany Lions, who won 75-70 in the teams’ first meeting, would extend that winning streak to four.
The Spartans will have to keep the problems Izzo identified in check on Tuesday in order to get that revenge. During the two teams’ first matchup in February, Penn State scored 21 points off Michigan State’s 15 turnovers and tallied 15 second-chance points, according to the Associated Press.
Penn State was also more balanced on the offensive end during the first go-around. While the Nittany Lions had two players drop at least 20 points and a third score 10, Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston was the only Spartan to score in double figures, logging 25 points and nine assists.
The result in Tuesday’s rematch will be keyed around Michigan State’s ability to contain Stevens and sophomore guard Myreon Jones, who is scoring 13.7 points per game to go with Stevens’ 17.7 points and 6.9 rebounds.
It will also depend on turnovers, the rebounding battle and whether the Spartans’ supporting cast can step up and help Winston. Each game during the Spartans’ three-game winning streak has seen at least three players score in double figures.
For Penn State, the blueprint is to get Stevens going early, dominate the glass and generate turnovers. The Nittany Lions are 19-3 this season when they have forced 10 turnovers or more, and they are 10-1 when they have grabbed at least 10 offensive boards. They haven’t lost at all when they’ve outrebounded their opponent, according to Sports Reference.
Like the first contest between Michigan State and Penn State — which saw eight lead changes — the rematch on Tuesday will likely be back-and-forth and close until the final buzzer. Either team could win.
But it’s hard to bet against Izzo’s Spartans in March, especially when they’re red hot.
Prediction: Michigan State wins, 72-69